Primeira Liga · Matchday 10

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Casa Pia
WLWLD
0 - 2
HT 0-1
Sporting CP
LWDDW

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Casa Pia win 11%, draw 17%, Sporting CP win 71%; the final score was 0:2.

Full time: Casa Pia 0-2 Sporting CP. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Sporting CP" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultSporting CP71.4%most likely
Correct score0:211.3%most likely
Total goals2 goals20.9%#2 of 8
Over/under 2.5Under 2.537.3%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeA/A47.3%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: High
1X2 (match result)Hit
Sporting CP
71%
Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Hit
Sporting CP
49%
Correct scoreHit
0:2 / 1:2
21%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
43%
Half-time / full-timeHit
A/A
47%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Over
63%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Sporting CP (71%); expected goals Casa Pia 0.84 – 2.39 Sporting CP.
  • Goals look likely: 3.23 expected in total, 63% for over 2.5 and 52% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 0:2 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (47%).
  • Last five: Casa Pia WLWLD (2 wins), Sporting CP LWDDW (2 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Casa Pia 11%Draw 17%Sporting CP 71%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Casa Pia
0.84
Expected goals · Sporting CP
2.39
Most likely score
0:2 (11%)
Half-time result
13% / 35% / 52%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Casa PiaDrawSporting CP
Home -30.1%0.6%99.2%
Home -20.8%2.6%96.6%
Home -13.4%7.7%88.9%
Home +1≈28.6%22.4%49.0%
Home +251.0%21.0%28.0%
Home +372.0%14.5%13.5%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Casa Pia · Home
  • 1:03.0%
  • 2:01.4%
  • 2:13.3%
  • 3:00.4%
  • 3:10.9%
  • 3:21.1%
  • 4:00.1%
  • 4:10.2%
  • 4:20.2%
  • 5:00.0%
  • 5:10.0%
  • 5:20.0%
  • Other home win0.3%
Draw
  • 0:04.2%
  • 1:18.2%
  • 2:24.0%
  • 3:30.9%
  • Other draw0.1%
Sporting CP · Away
  • 0:19.2%
  • 0:211.3%
  • 1:29.5%
  • 0:39.0%
  • 1:37.6%
  • 2:33.2%
  • 0:45.4%
  • 1:44.5%
  • 2:41.9%
  • 0:52.6%
  • 1:52.2%
  • 2:50.9%
  • Other away win4.3%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
4.2%
1
12.2%
2
20.9%
3
22.2%
4
17.9%
5
11.6%
6
6.2%
7+
4.7%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over83.6%62.7%40.4%22.5%
Under16.4%37.3%59.6%77.5%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
37.2%
Over, even
25.5%
Under, odd
12.2%
Under, even
25.2%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
52.0%
Both teams to score: No
48.0%
Clean-sheet probability · Casa Pia
9.2%
Clean-sheet probability · Sporting CP
43.1%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Casa Pia43.1%36.3%15.3%5.4%
Sporting CP9.2%21.9%26.2%42.8%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
5.8%
H/D
3.7%
H/A
3.4%
Draw
D/H
4.5%
D/D
10.2%
D/A
20.8%
Away
A/H
0.9%
A/D
3.7%
A/A
47.3%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Casa Pia

A Lisbon club nicknamed "Os Gansos" (The Geese), tied to the Casa Pia children's charity, who returned to the Primeira Liga in 2022–23 and finished 9th in both 2023–24 and 2024–25.

City
Lisbon, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio Pina Manique
Founded
1920

Sporting CP

Lisbon-based club and one of Portugal's traditional "Big Three", Sporting won the Primeira Liga title in 2023–24 and 2024–25 and are known for their youth academy.

City
Lisbon, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio José Alvalade
Founded
1906

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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