Bundesliga · Matchday 8

SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

SV Elversberg
LWLDL
4 - 1
HT 3-0
Mainz 05
LWLWL

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): SV Elversberg win 26%, draw 24%, Mainz 05 win 50%; the final score was 4:1.

Full time: SV Elversberg 4-1 Mainz 05. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Mainz 05" — missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultSV Elversberg26.2%#2 of 3
Correct score4:11.0%#23 of 31
Total goals5 goals11.8%#4 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.563.5%most likely
Half-time/full-timeH/H14.7%#3 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
SV Elversberg / Mainz 05
76%
Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Hit
SV Elversberg
50%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 1:2
20%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
43%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
A/A
30%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
63%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Mainz 05 (50%); expected goals SV Elversberg 1.36 – 1.92 Mainz 05.
  • Goals look likely: 3.27 expected in total, 63% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (30%).
  • Last five: SV Elversberg LWLDL (1 wins), Mainz 05 LWLWL (2 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

SV Elversberg 26%Draw 24%Mainz 05 50%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · SV Elversberg
1.36
Expected goals · Mainz 05
1.92
Most likely score
1:1 (11%)
Half-time result
24% / 38% / 38%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2SV ElversbergDrawMainz 05
Home -31.2%2.9%95.9%
Home -24.1%7.7%88.3%
Home -111.7%14.4%73.8%
Home +1≈50.4%20.8%28.8%
Home +271.2%15.3%13.4%
Home +386.6%8.2%5.2%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

SV Elversberg · Home
  • 1:04.1%
  • 2:03.5%
  • 2:16.7%
  • 3:01.6%
  • 3:13.0%
  • 3:22.9%
  • 4:00.5%
  • 4:11.0%
  • 4:21.0%
  • 5:00.1%
  • 5:10.3%
  • 5:20.3%
  • Other home win1.1%
Draw
  • 0:04.8%
  • 1:110.9%
  • 2:26.4%
  • 3:31.8%
  • Other draw0.3%
Mainz 05 · Away
  • 0:16.3%
  • 0:27.0%
  • 1:29.4%
  • 0:34.4%
  • 1:36.0%
  • 2:34.1%
  • 0:42.1%
  • 1:42.9%
  • 2:42.0%
  • 0:50.8%
  • 1:51.1%
  • 2:50.7%
  • Other away win2.7%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
4.8%
1
10.4%
2
21.3%
3
22.1%
4
18.1%
5
11.8%
6
6.5%
7+
4.9%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over84.8%63.5%41.3%23.2%
Under15.2%36.5%58.7%76.8%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
37.5%
Over, even
26.0%
Under, odd
10.4%
Under, even
26.2%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
64.3%
Both teams to score: No
35.7%
Clean-sheet probability · SV Elversberg
14.7%
Clean-sheet probability · Mainz 05
25.8%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
SV Elversberg25.8%34.9%23.7%15.6%
Mainz 0514.7%28.2%27.0%30.0%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
14.7%
H/D
5.6%
H/A
3.4%
Draw
D/H
9.3%
D/D
13.0%
D/A
15.9%
Away
A/H
2.1%
A/D
5.6%
A/A
30.3%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

SV Elversberg

A small-town Saarland club that won promotion in 2026 to reach the Bundesliga for the first time, known for a brave, attacking style.

City
Spiesen-Elversberg, Germany
Stadium
Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde
Founded
1907
Head coach
Vincent Wagner

Mainz 05

A Rhineland-Palatinate club known as the 'Nullfünfer' and linked to Mainz's carnival culture, long established as a Bundesliga regular.

City
Mainz, Germany
Stadium
MEWA Arena
Founded
1905
Head coach
Urs Fischer

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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