Serie A Β· Matchday 9

Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Fiorentina
LLLDW
2 - 2
HT 0-1
Atalanta
DLWLL

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Fiorentina win 41%, draw 26%, Atalanta win 34%; the final score was 2:2.

Full time: Fiorentina 2-2 Atalanta. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Fiorentina" β€” missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultDraw25.5%#3 of 3
Correct score2:26.8%#4 of 31
Total goals4 goals18.3%#3 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.564.2%most likely
Half-time/full-timeA/D6.0%#6 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Miss
Fiorentina / Atalanta
74%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
Atalanta
59%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
20%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
43%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
24%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
64%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: Fiorentina 41%, draw 26%, Atalanta 34% β€” no clear lean from the probabilities.
  • Goals look likely: 3.31 expected in total, 64% for over 2.5 and 67% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (24%).
  • Last five: Fiorentina LLLDW (1 wins), Atalanta DLWLL (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Fiorentina 41%Draw 26%Atalanta 34%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· Fiorentina
1.74
Expected goals Β· Atalanta
1.57
Most likely score
1:1 (11%)
Half-time result
33% / 38% / 29%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2FiorentinaDrawAtalanta
Home -33.4%6.1%90.6%
Home -29.4%12.6%78.0%
Home -1β‰ˆ22.0%18.7%59.3%
Home +166.3%16.8%17.0%
Home +283.0%10.3%6.7%
Home +393.3%4.5%2.2%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Fiorentina Β· Home
  • 1:05.0%
  • 2:05.5%
  • 2:18.7%
  • 3:03.2%
  • 3:15.0%
  • 3:23.9%
  • 4:01.4%
  • 4:12.2%
  • 4:21.7%
  • 5:00.5%
  • 5:10.8%
  • 5:20.6%
  • Other home win2.2%
Draw
  • 0:05.0%
  • 1:111.3%
  • 2:26.8%
  • 3:32.1%
  • Other draw0.4%
Atalanta Β· Away
  • 0:14.4%
  • 0:24.5%
  • 1:27.8%
  • 0:32.4%
  • 1:34.1%
  • 2:33.6%
  • 0:40.9%
  • 1:41.6%
  • 2:41.4%
  • 0:50.3%
  • 1:50.5%
  • 2:50.4%
  • Other away win1.7%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
5.0%
1
9.5%
2
21.3%
3
22.1%
4
18.3%
5
12.1%
6
6.7%
7+
5.1%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over85.5%64.2%42.1%23.9%
Under14.5%35.8%57.9%76.1%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
37.8%
Over, even
26.4%
Under, odd
9.5%
Under, even
26.3%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
66.6%
Both teams to score: No
33.4%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Fiorentina
20.8%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Atalanta
17.6%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Fiorentina17.6%30.6%26.6%25.3%
Atalanta20.8%32.7%25.6%20.9%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
24.3%
H/D
6.0%
H/A
2.6%
Draw
D/H
13.4%
D/D
13.5%
D/A
11.4%
Away
A/H
3.0%
A/D
6.0%
A/A
19.7%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Fiorentina

Fiorentina, known as La Viola for their purple kits, are a Florence club with two Serie A titles (1955–56 and 1968–69). They had a very poor start to 2025–26 but climbed out of the relegation zone, and Paolo Vanoli returned as head coach in September 2026.

City
Florence, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Founded
1926
Head coach
Paolo Vanoli

Atalanta

A Bergamo-based Serie A club and 2023–24 UEFA Europa League winner, Atalanta finished 7th in 2025–26.

City
Bergamo, Italy
Stadium
New Balance Arena
Founded
1907
Head coach
Maurizio Sarri

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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