J1 League · Matchday 12
FC Tokyo vs Mito HollyHock prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-19
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): FC Tokyo win 71%, draw 19%, Mito HollyHock win 10%; the final score was 6:0.
Full time: FC Tokyo 6-0 Mito HollyHock. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "FC Tokyo" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | FC Tokyo | 70.6% | most likely |
| Correct score | 6:0 | 3.1% | outside the listed scores (pooled "other" cell) |
| Total goals | 6 goals | 4.9% | #7 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 44.2% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- FC Tokyo
- 71%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
- FC Tokyo
- 47%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 2:0 / 1:0
- 24%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 44%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 57%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour FC Tokyo (71%); expected goals FC Tokyo 2.22 – 0.74 Mito HollyHock.
- 2.96 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 57%).
- The single most likely score is 2:0 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (44%).
- Last five: FC Tokyo DWWWW (4 wins), Mito HollyHock LLLLL (0 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · FC Tokyo
- 2.22
- Expected goals · Mito HollyHock
- 0.74
- Most likely score
- 2:0 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 49% / 40% / 12%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | FC Tokyo | Draw | Mito HollyHock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 11.9% | 14.1% | 74.1% |
| Home -2 | 25.9% | 21.4% | 52.7% |
| Home -1≈ | 47.3% | 23.3% | 29.4% |
| Home +1 | 89.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% |
| Home +2 | 97.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Home +3 | 99.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:010.9%
- 2:012.8%
- 2:19.4%
- 3:09.5%
- 3:17.0%
- 3:22.6%
- 4:05.3%
- 4:13.9%
- 4:21.4%
- 5:02.3%
- 5:11.7%
- 5:20.6%
- Other home win3.1%
- 0:05.7%
- 1:19.1%
- 2:23.5%
- 3:30.6%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:13.2%
- 0:21.4%
- 1:23.1%
- 0:30.3%
- 1:30.8%
- 2:30.9%
- 0:40.1%
- 1:40.1%
- 2:40.2%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.0%
- 2:50.0%
- Other away win0.2%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 80.1% | 56.8% | 34.4% | 17.9% |
| Under | 19.9% | 43.2% | 65.6% | 82.1% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 34.6%
- Over, even
- 22.3%
- Under, odd
- 14.2%
- Under, even
- 29.0%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 47.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 52.8%
- Clean-sheet probability · FC Tokyo
- 47.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Mito HollyHock
- 10.8%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 10.8% | 24.1% | 26.8% | 38.4% |
| Mito HollyHock | 47.7% | 35.3% | 13.1% | 3.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 44.2% | H/D 3.6% | H/A 0.7% |
| Draw | D/H 23.2% | D/D 11.9% | D/A 4.6% |
| Away | A/H 3.2% | A/D 3.6% | A/A 5.0% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
FC Tokyo
A Tokyo-based J1 League club that grew out of the Tokyo Gas company team and plays at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu. It was in the upper part of the J1 table in the 2026 season.
- City
- Tokyo (Chōfu), Japan
- Stadium
- Ajinomoto Stadium
- Founded
- 1935
- Head coach
- Rikizo Matsuhashi
Mito HollyHock
Ibaraki-based club that won promotion to the J1 League for the 2026–27 season, the first top-flight promotion in its history.
- City
- Mito, Ibaraki, Japan
- Stadium
- Mito Shinkin Bank Stadium
- Founded
- 1994
- Head coach
- Naoki Mori
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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