K League 1 Β· Matchday 33

Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Bucheon FC 1995
LLLDL
0 - 3
HT 0-1
Gwangju FC
LWDDL

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-19

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Bucheon FC 1995 win 42%, draw 28%, Gwangju FC win 29%; the final score was 0:3.

Full time: Bucheon FC 1995 0-3 Gwangju FC. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Bucheon FC 1995" β€” missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultGwangju FC29.5%#2 of 3
Correct score0:32.0%#15 of 31
Total goals3 goals22.0%#2 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.550.6%most likely
Half-time/full-timeA/A15.8%#4 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

ModelConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Bucheon FC 1995 / Gwangju FC
72%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
Gwangju FC
58%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
23%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
48%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
24%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
51%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The model favours Bucheon FC 1995 (42%); expected goals Bucheon FC 1995 1.49 – 1.21 Gwangju FC.
  • 2.70 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 51%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (24%).
  • Last five: Bucheon FC 1995 LLLDL (0 wins), Gwangju FC LWDDL (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Bucheon FC 1995 42%Draw 28%Gwangju FC 29%

No prices available for this match yet β€” the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.

Expected goals Β· Bucheon FC 1995
1.49
Expected goals Β· Gwangju FC
1.21
Most likely score
1:1 (14%)
Half-time result
31% / 45% / 24%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Bucheon FC 1995DrawGwangju FC
Home -32.7%5.7%91.7%
Home -28.3%13.0%78.6%
Home -1β‰ˆ21.4%20.7%57.9%
Home +170.5%16.6%12.8%
Home +287.2%8.7%4.2%
Home +395.8%3.1%1.1%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Bucheon FC 1995 Β· Home
  • 1:08.5%
  • 2:07.4%
  • 2:19.0%
  • 3:03.7%
  • 3:14.5%
  • 3:22.7%
  • 4:01.4%
  • 4:11.7%
  • 4:21.0%
  • 5:00.4%
  • 5:10.5%
  • 5:20.3%
  • Other home win1.0%
Draw
  • 0:08.2%
  • 1:113.6%
  • 2:25.5%
  • 3:31.1%
  • Other draw0.1%
Gwangju FC Β· Away
  • 0:16.7%
  • 0:24.9%
  • 1:27.3%
  • 0:32.0%
  • 1:33.0%
  • 2:32.2%
  • 0:40.6%
  • 1:40.9%
  • 2:40.7%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.2%
  • 2:50.2%
  • Other away win0.6%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
8.2%
1
15.2%
2
26.0%
3
22.0%
4
14.9%
5
8.0%
6
3.6%
7+
2.1%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over76.6%50.6%28.6%13.7%
Under23.4%49.4%71.4%86.3%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
31.6%
Over, even
19.0%
Under, odd
15.2%
Under, even
34.1%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
55.8%
Both teams to score: No
44.2%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Bucheon FC 1995
29.8%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Gwangju FC
22.6%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Bucheon FC 199522.6%33.6%25.0%18.8%
Gwangju FC29.8%36.1%21.9%12.3%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
23.6%
H/D
5.6%
H/A
1.9%
Draw
D/H
15.9%
D/D
17.3%
D/A
11.7%
Away
A/H
2.6%
A/D
5.6%
A/A
15.8%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Bucheon FC 1995

A community-owned club from Bucheon, founded in 2007 by supporters of the former Bucheon SK, which plays in the K League.

City
Bucheon, South Korea
Stadium
Bucheon Stadium
Founded
2007
Head coach
Lee Young-min

Gwangju FC

Citizen club from Gwangju, founded in 2010, that won K League 2 in 2022, finished third in K League 1 in 2023 and reached the AFC Champions League Elite for the first time.

City
Gwangju, South Korea
Stadium
Gwangju Football Stadium
Founded
2010
Head coach
Lee Jung-kyu

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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