Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 34
Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Botafogo win 58%, draw 23%, Atlético Mineiro win 18%; the final score was 1:0.
Full time: Botafogo 1-0 Atlético Mineiro. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Botafogo" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Botafogo | 58.3% | most likely |
| Correct score | 1:0 | 7.8% | #4 of 31 |
| Total goals | 1 goals | 11.4% | #4 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 39.7% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 37.4% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Botafogo
- 58%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
- Atlético Mineiro
- 42%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 45%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 37%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 60%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Botafogo (58%); expected goals Botafogo 2.04 – 1.08 Atlético Mineiro.
- Goals look likely: 3.12 expected in total, 60% for over 2.5 and 59% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (37%).
- Last five: Botafogo LLWDL (1 wins), Atlético Mineiro LLWWD (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Botafogo
- 2.04
- Expected goals · Atlético Mineiro
- 1.08
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 44% / 38% / 18%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Botafogo | Draw | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 81.9% |
| Home -2 | 18.1% | 18.1% | 63.8% |
| Home -1≈ | 36.2% | 22.1% | 41.7% |
| Home +1 | 81.7% | 11.2% | 7.1% |
| Home +2 | 92.9% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
| Home +3 | 98.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.8%
- 2:09.2%
- 2:19.9%
- 3:06.2%
- 3:16.7%
- 3:23.6%
- 4:03.2%
- 4:13.4%
- 4:21.9%
- 5:01.3%
- 5:11.4%
- 5:20.8%
- Other home win2.8%
- 0:05.6%
- 1:110.9%
- 2:25.4%
- 3:31.3%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:13.6%
- 0:22.6%
- 1:25.3%
- 0:30.9%
- 1:31.9%
- 2:31.9%
- 0:40.3%
- 1:40.5%
- 2:40.5%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.6%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 83.0% | 60.3% | 38.0% | 20.5% |
| Under | 17.0% | 39.7% | 62.0% | 79.5% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 36.1%
- Over, even
- 24.2%
- Under, odd
- 11.4%
- Under, even
- 28.3%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 58.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 41.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · Botafogo
- 34.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Atlético Mineiro
- 13.0%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 13.0% | 26.5% | 27.1% | 33.4% |
| Atlético Mineiro | 34.0% | 36.7% | 19.8% | 9.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 37.4% | H/D 5.1% | H/A 1.4% |
| Draw | D/H 17.7% | D/D 13.2% | D/A 6.8% |
| Away | A/H 3.3% | A/D 5.1% | A/A 10.1% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Botafogo
Rio de Janeiro club known for its black-and-white stripes and lone-star badge, winner of the 2024 Copa Libertadores and Brasileirão Série A, now led by Tite, who was appointed in September 2026.
- City
- Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Stadium
- Estádio Nilton Santos
- Founded
- 1904
- Head coach
- Tite
Atlético Mineiro
Nicknamed "Galo", this black-and-white Belo Horizonte club won the 2021 Brasileirão and the 2013 Copa Libertadores, and plays at its own Arena MRV.
- City
- Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Stadium
- Arena MRV
- Founded
- 1908
- Head coach
- Eduardo Domínguez
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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