Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 34

Flamengo vs Grêmio prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Flamengo
WWWWD
3 - 1
HT 3-0
Grêmio
WWLDD

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Flamengo win 83%, draw 11%, Grêmio win 6%; the final score was 3:1.

Full time: Flamengo 3-1 Grêmio. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Flamengo" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultFlamengo83.0%most likely
Correct score3:18.0%#3 of 31
Total goals4 goals19.2%most likely
Over/under 2.5Over 2.581.3%most likely
Half-time/full-timeH/H61.5%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: High
1X2 (match result)Hit
Flamengo
83%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -2Miss
Flamengo
48%
Correct scoreHit
3:0 / 3:1
16%
Total goalsHit
3 / 4 goals
37%
Half-time / full-timeHit
H/H
62%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
81%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Flamengo (83%); expected goals Flamengo 3.44 – 0.95 Grêmio.
  • Goals look likely: 4.39 expected in total, 81% for over 2.5 and 60% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 3:0 (8%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (62%).
  • Last five: Flamengo WWWWD (4 wins), Grêmio WWLDD (2 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Flamengo 83%Draw 11%Grêmio 6%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Flamengo
3.44
Expected goals · Grêmio
0.95
Most likely score
3:0 (8%)
Half-time result
65% / 25% / 10%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2FlamengoDrawGrêmio
Home -329.7%18.0%52.3%
Home -2≈47.7%19.4%32.8%
Home -167.2%15.8%17.0%
Home +194.1%4.0%2.0%
Home +298.0%1.5%0.5%
Home +399.5%0.4%0.1%

Model's balanced line: Home -2

Correct score

Flamengo · Home
  • 1:03.8%
  • 2:07.4%
  • 2:17.0%
  • 3:08.4%
  • 3:18.0%
  • 3:23.8%
  • 4:07.2%
  • 4:16.9%
  • 4:23.3%
  • 5:05.0%
  • 5:14.7%
  • 5:22.2%
  • Other home win15.3%
Draw
  • 0:01.7%
  • 1:14.6%
  • 2:23.3%
  • 3:31.2%
  • Other draw0.3%
Grêmio · Away
  • 0:10.7%
  • 0:20.6%
  • 1:21.9%
  • 0:30.2%
  • 1:30.6%
  • 2:31.0%
  • 0:40.0%
  • 1:40.1%
  • 2:40.2%
  • 0:50.0%
  • 1:50.0%
  • 2:50.0%
  • Other away win0.4%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
1.7%
1
4.5%
2
12.5%
3
17.5%
4
19.2%
5
16.9%
6
12.3%
7+
15.4%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over93.8%81.3%63.8%44.6%
Under6.2%18.7%36.2%55.4%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
44.5%
Over, even
36.8%
Under, odd
4.5%
Under, even
14.2%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
59.8%
Both teams to score: No
40.2%
Clean-sheet probability · Flamengo
38.7%
Clean-sheet probability · Grêmio
3.2%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Flamengo3.2%11.1%19.0%66.7%
Grêmio38.7%36.7%17.4%7.1%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
61.5%
H/D
2.8%
H/A
0.6%
Draw
D/H
17.5%
D/D
5.5%
D/A
2.2%
Away
A/H
3.9%
A/D
2.8%
A/A
3.2%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Flamengo

Rio de Janeiro's Flamengo is one of Brazil's most widely supported clubs, a multiple Brasileirão and Copa Libertadores winner that regularly contends for the title and plays attacking, possession-based football.

City
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Stadium
Maracanã
Founded
1895
Head coach
Leonardo Jardim

Grêmio

Grêmio is a Porto Alegre club in Brazil's top flight, known as a three-time Copa Libertadores winner (1983, 1995, 2017) and for its blue, black and white colours and its rivalry with Internacional.

City
Porto Alegre, Brazil
Stadium
Arena do Grêmio
Founded
1903
Head coach
Renato Gaúcho

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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