K League 1 Β· Matchday 34
Ulsan HD FC vs Gangwon FC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Ulsan HD FC win 33%, draw 30%, Gangwon FC win 37%; the final score was 2:1.
Full time: Ulsan HD FC 2-1 Gangwon FC. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Gangwon FC" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Ulsan HD FC | 33.5% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 2:1 | 7.8% | #6 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 21.5% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.5% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | A/H | 2.0% | #9 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Ulsan HD FC / Gangwon FC
- 70%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
- Ulsan HD FC
- 63%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 0:0
- 24%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 49%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 20%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Under
- 53%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Ulsan HD FC 33%, draw 30%, Gangwon FC 37% β no clear lean from the model.
- 2.53 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 47%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (20%).
- Last five: Ulsan HD FC DWLLW (2 wins), Gangwon FC DDWDL (1 wins).
- A 30% draw probability is on the high side β the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet β the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals Β· Ulsan HD FC
- 1.23
- Expected goals Β· Gangwon FC
- 1.30
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 26% / 47% / 28%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Ulsan HD FC | Draw | Gangwon FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.3% | 3.6% | 95.0% |
| Home -2 | 5.0% | 10.0% | 85.0% |
| Home -1 | 15.0% | 18.5% | 66.5% |
| Home +1β | 63.3% | 19.6% | 17.1% |
| Home +2 | 82.9% | 11.1% | 6.0% |
| Home +3 | 94.0% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:08.3%
- 2:06.0%
- 2:17.8%
- 3:02.5%
- 3:13.2%
- 3:22.1%
- 4:00.8%
- 4:11.0%
- 4:20.6%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.2%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.5%
- 0:09.5%
- 1:114.3%
- 2:25.1%
- 3:30.9%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:18.8%
- 0:26.7%
- 1:28.3%
- 0:32.9%
- 1:33.6%
- 2:32.2%
- 0:40.9%
- 1:41.2%
- 2:40.7%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.6%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73.5% | 46.5% | 25.0% | 11.4% |
| Under | 26.5% | 53.5% | 75.0% | 88.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 29.6%
- Over, even
- 16.9%
- Under, odd
- 17.0%
- Under, even
- 36.5%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 53.1%
- Both teams to score: No
- 46.9%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Ulsan HD FC
- 27.2%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Gangwon FC
- 29.1%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulsan HD FC | 29.1% | 35.9% | 22.2% | 12.8% |
| Gangwon FC | 27.2% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 18.0% | H/D 5.5% | H/A 2.2% |
| Draw | D/H 13.5% | D/D 18.7% | D/A 14.6% |
| Away | A/H 2.0% | A/D 5.5% | A/A 20.0% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Ulsan HD FC
Ulsan HD (formerly Ulsan Hyundai), backed by HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, is one of the K League 1's most successful clubs and won three straight league titles from 2022 to 2024.
- City
- Ulsan, South Korea
- Stadium
- Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium
- Founded
- 1983
- Head coach
- Kim Hyun-seok
Gangwon FC
A provincial club from Gangwon Province that splits home games between Gangneung and Chuncheon; it finished fifth in K League 1 in 2025 and reached the AFC Champions League Elite round of 16 in 2025β26.
- City
- Gangneung, South Korea
- Stadium
- Gangneung Stadium
- Founded
- 2008
- Head coach
- Jeong Kyung-ho
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: K League 1 β