K League 1 Β· Matchday 34

Ulsan HD FC vs Gangwon FC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Ulsan HD FC
DWLLW
2 - 1
HT 0-1
Gangwon FC
DDWDL

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Ulsan HD FC win 33%, draw 30%, Gangwon FC win 37%; the final score was 2:1.

Full time: Ulsan HD FC 2-1 Gangwon FC. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Gangwon FC" β€” missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultUlsan HD FC33.5%#2 of 3
Correct score2:17.8%#6 of 31
Total goals3 goals21.5%#2 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.546.5%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeA/H2.0%#9 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

ModelConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Ulsan HD FC / Gangwon FC
70%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
Ulsan HD FC
63%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 0:0
24%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
49%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
A/A
20%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Under
53%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: Ulsan HD FC 33%, draw 30%, Gangwon FC 37% β€” no clear lean from the model.
  • 2.53 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 47%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (20%).
  • Last five: Ulsan HD FC DWLLW (2 wins), Gangwon FC DDWDL (1 wins).
  • A 30% draw probability is on the high side β€” the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Ulsan HD FC 33%Draw 30%Gangwon FC 37%

No prices available for this match yet β€” the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.

Expected goals Β· Ulsan HD FC
1.23
Expected goals Β· Gangwon FC
1.30
Most likely score
1:1 (14%)
Half-time result
26% / 47% / 28%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Ulsan HD FCDrawGangwon FC
Home -31.3%3.6%95.0%
Home -25.0%10.0%85.0%
Home -115.0%18.5%66.5%
Home +1β‰ˆ63.3%19.6%17.1%
Home +282.9%11.1%6.0%
Home +394.0%4.3%1.7%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Ulsan HD FC Β· Home
  • 1:08.3%
  • 2:06.0%
  • 2:17.8%
  • 3:02.5%
  • 3:13.2%
  • 3:22.1%
  • 4:00.8%
  • 4:11.0%
  • 4:20.6%
  • 5:00.2%
  • 5:10.2%
  • 5:20.2%
  • Other home win0.5%
Draw
  • 0:09.5%
  • 1:114.3%
  • 2:25.1%
  • 3:30.9%
  • Other draw0.1%
Gangwon FC Β· Away
  • 0:18.8%
  • 0:26.7%
  • 1:28.3%
  • 0:32.9%
  • 1:33.6%
  • 2:32.2%
  • 0:40.9%
  • 1:41.2%
  • 2:40.7%
  • 0:50.2%
  • 1:50.3%
  • 2:50.2%
  • Other away win0.6%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
9.5%
1
17.0%
2
27.0%
3
21.5%
4
13.6%
5
6.9%
6
2.9%
7+
1.5%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over73.5%46.5%25.0%11.4%
Under26.5%53.5%75.0%88.6%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
29.6%
Over, even
16.9%
Under, odd
17.0%
Under, even
36.5%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
53.1%
Both teams to score: No
46.9%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Ulsan HD FC
27.2%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Gangwon FC
29.1%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Ulsan HD FC29.1%35.9%22.2%12.8%
Gangwon FC27.2%35.4%23.0%14.3%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
18.0%
H/D
5.5%
H/A
2.2%
Draw
D/H
13.5%
D/D
18.7%
D/A
14.6%
Away
A/H
2.0%
A/D
5.5%
A/A
20.0%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Ulsan HD FC

Ulsan HD (formerly Ulsan Hyundai), backed by HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, is one of the K League 1's most successful clubs and won three straight league titles from 2022 to 2024.

City
Ulsan, South Korea
Stadium
Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium
Founded
1983
Head coach
Kim Hyun-seok

Gangwon FC

A provincial club from Gangwon Province that splits home games between Gangneung and Chuncheon; it finished fifth in K League 1 in 2025 and reached the AFC Champions League Elite round of 16 in 2025–26.

City
Gangneung, South Korea
Stadium
Gangneung Stadium
Founded
2008
Head coach
Jeong Kyung-ho

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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