J1 League Β· Matchday 13
Mito HollyHock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Mito HollyHock win 14%, draw 20%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 66%; the final score was 0:3.
Full time: Mito HollyHock 0-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Sanfrecce Hiroshima" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 65.9% | most likely |
| Correct score | 0:3 | 6.9% | #5 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 21.2% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.1% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 40.3% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- 66%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- 46%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:2 / 1:1
- 18%
- Total goalsHit
- 3 / 4 goals
- 40%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- A/A
- 40%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 70%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Sanfrecce Hiroshima (66%); expected goals Mito HollyHock 1.13 β 2.50 Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
- Goals look likely: 3.62 expected in total, 70% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:2 (9%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (40%).
- Last five: Mito HollyHock LLLLL (0 wins), Sanfrecce Hiroshima WLWWW (4 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Mito HollyHock
- 1.13
- Expected goals Β· Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- 2.50
- Most likely score
- 1:2 (9%)
- Half-time result
- 16% / 38% / 46%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Mito HollyHock | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.4% | 1.2% | 98.4% |
| Home -2 | 1.6% | 4.0% | 94.4% |
| Home -1 | 5.6% | 8.4% | 86.0% |
| Home +1β | 34.1% | 20.3% | 45.6% |
| Home +2 | 54.4% | 19.4% | 26.2% |
| Home +3 | 73.8% | 13.4% | 12.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:01.7%
- 2:01.7%
- 2:14.2%
- 3:00.6%
- 3:11.6%
- 3:22.0%
- 4:00.2%
- 4:10.4%
- 4:20.6%
- 5:00.0%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.7%
- 0:04.0%
- 1:18.9%
- 2:25.3%
- 3:31.6%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:15.3%
- 0:28.3%
- 1:29.4%
- 0:36.9%
- 1:37.8%
- 2:34.4%
- 0:44.3%
- 1:44.9%
- 2:42.7%
- 0:52.2%
- 1:52.4%
- 2:51.4%
- Other away win5.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 89.0% | 70.1% | 49.0% | 29.8% |
| Under | 11.0% | 29.9% | 51.0% | 70.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 40.3%
- Over, even
- 29.8%
- Under, odd
- 7.0%
- Under, even
- 22.9%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 63.4%
- Both teams to score: No
- 36.6%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Mito HollyHock
- 8.2%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- 32.4%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mito HollyHock | 32.4% | 36.5% | 20.6% | 10.5% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8.2% | 20.6% | 25.7% | 45.5% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 6.9% | H/D 4.6% | H/A 4.4% |
| Draw | D/H 5.7% | D/D 10.8% | D/A 21.2% |
| Away | A/H 1.3% | A/D 4.6% | A/A 40.3% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Mito HollyHock
Ibaraki-based club that won promotion to the J1 League for the 2026β27 season, the first top-flight promotion in its history.
- City
- Mito, Ibaraki, Japan
- Stadium
- Mito Shinkin Bank Stadium
- Founded
- 1994
- Head coach
- Naoki Mori
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Hiroshima-based J1 League club, a multiple-time Japanese champion that grew out of the Mazda works team and is known for its youth development and organised, possession-based football; it is in the upper part of the 2026 J1 table.
- City
- Hiroshima, Japan
- Stadium
- Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima
- Founded
- 1938
- Head coach
- Bartosch Gaul
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: J1 League β