Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 33

Coritiba vs Vitória prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Coritiba
LLDLL
2 - 0
HT 0-0
Vitória
DDLWL

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Coritiba win 45%, draw 28%, Vitória win 27%; the final score was 2:0.

Full time: Coritiba 2-0 Vitória. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Coritiba" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultCoritiba45.0%most likely
Correct score2:07.3%#3 of 31
Total goals2 goals24.5%most likely
Over/under 2.5Under 2.543.1%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeD/H14.8%#4 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Coritiba / Draw
73%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
Vitória
55%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
22%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
47%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
27%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Over
57%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Coritiba (45%); expected goals Coritiba 1.68 – 1.28 Vitória.
  • 2.97 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 57%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (27%).
  • Last five: Coritiba LLDLL (0 wins), Vitória DDLWL (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Coritiba 45%Draw 28%Vitória 27%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Coritiba
1.68
Expected goals · Vitória
1.28
Most likely score
1:1 (13%)
Half-time result
35% / 40% / 24%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2CoritibaDrawVitória
Home -33.7%6.9%89.4%
Home -210.6%14.2%75.2%
Home -1≈24.8%20.2%55.0%
Home +172.7%14.9%12.4%
Home +287.6%8.2%4.2%
Home +395.8%3.0%1.1%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Coritiba · Home
  • 1:06.8%
  • 2:07.3%
  • 2:19.4%
  • 3:04.1%
  • 3:15.3%
  • 3:23.4%
  • 4:01.7%
  • 4:12.2%
  • 4:21.4%
  • 5:00.6%
  • 5:10.7%
  • 5:20.5%
  • Other home win1.6%
Draw
  • 0:07.0%
  • 1:113.0%
  • 2:26.0%
  • 3:31.4%
  • Other draw0.2%
Vitória · Away
  • 0:14.7%
  • 0:24.2%
  • 1:27.1%
  • 0:31.8%
  • 1:33.0%
  • 2:32.6%
  • 0:40.6%
  • 1:41.0%
  • 2:40.8%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.2%
  • 2:50.2%
  • Other away win0.8%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
7.0%
1
11.6%
2
24.5%
3
22.4%
4
16.6%
5
9.8%
6
4.9%
7+
3.2%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over81.4%56.9%34.5%17.9%
Under18.6%43.1%65.5%82.1%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
34.6%
Over, even
22.3%
Under, odd
11.6%
Under, even
31.5%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
60.7%
Both teams to score: No
39.3%
Clean-sheet probability · Coritiba
27.8%
Clean-sheet probability · Vitória
18.6%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Coritiba18.6%31.3%26.3%23.9%
Vitória27.8%35.6%22.8%13.9%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
27.5%
H/D
6.0%
H/A
1.9%
Draw
D/H
14.8%
D/D
15.7%
D/A
9.8%
Away
A/H
2.8%
A/D
6.0%
A/A
15.7%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Coritiba

Founded in 1909 by German immigrants, Coritiba (nicknamed "Coxa") is the oldest club in Paraná state and returned to Brasileirão Série A in 2026 after winning the 2025 Série B title.

City
Curitiba, Brazil
Stadium
Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira
Founded
1909

Vitória

Salvador's Rubro-Negro club from Bahia, strong at home in the Barradão but in the lower part of the 2026 Série A table, fighting to stay clear of relegation.

City
Salvador, Brazil
Stadium
Estádio Manoel Barradas (Barradão)
Founded
1899
Head coach
Cléber dos Santos (interim)

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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