La Liga · Matchday 10
Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Sevilla win 49%, draw 28%, Osasuna win 23%; the final score was 2:0.
Full time: Sevilla 2-0 Osasuna. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Sevilla" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Sevilla | 49.0% | most likely |
| Correct score | 2:0 | 9.8% | #4 of 31 |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 27.0% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.5% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 29.4% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Sevilla / Draw
- 77%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
- Osasuna
- 51%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 26%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 29%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Under
- 57%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Sevilla (49%); expected goals Sevilla 1.48 – 0.93 Osasuna.
- 2.42 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 43%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (29%).
- Last five: Sevilla LDLWW (2 wins), Osasuna WLDLL (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Sevilla
- 1.48
- Expected goals · Osasuna
- 0.93
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 36% / 45% / 20%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Sevilla | Draw | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.2% | 6.8% | 90.0% |
| Home -2 | 10.0% | 15.2% | 74.8% |
| Home -1≈ | 25.2% | 23.9% | 51.0% |
| Home +1 | 77.1% | 14.7% | 8.2% |
| Home +2 | 91.8% | 6.0% | 2.1% |
| Home +3 | 97.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:012.3%
- 2:09.8%
- 2:19.2%
- 3:04.8%
- 3:14.5%
- 3:22.1%
- 4:01.8%
- 4:11.7%
- 4:20.8%
- 5:00.5%
- 5:10.5%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.8%
- 0:09.8%
- 1:113.3%
- 2:24.3%
- 3:30.7%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:17.4%
- 0:23.9%
- 1:25.8%
- 0:31.2%
- 1:31.8%
- 2:31.3%
- 0:40.3%
- 1:40.4%
- 2:40.3%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.2%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70.4% | 43.5% | 22.5% | 9.8% |
| Under | 29.6% | 56.5% | 77.5% | 90.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 28.0%
- Over, even
- 15.4%
- Under, odd
- 19.8%
- Under, even
- 36.8%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 47.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 52.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · Sevilla
- 39.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Osasuna
- 22.7%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 22.7% | 33.7% | 25.0% | 18.7% |
| Osasuna | 39.3% | 36.7% | 17.1% | 6.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 29.4% | H/D 4.9% | H/A 1.3% |
| Draw | D/H 17.4% | D/D 18.2% | D/A 9.1% |
| Away | A/H 2.3% | A/D 4.9% | A/A 12.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Sevilla
Andalusian club from Seville and a record seven-time UEFA Europa League/UEFA Cup winner, who finished 13th in La Liga in 2025–26.
- City
- Seville, Spain
- Stadium
- Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán
- Founded
- 1890
Osasuna
Pamplona-based club nicknamed Los Rojillos, known for a hard-working, physical style and the atmosphere at El Sadar, who narrowly avoided relegation from La Liga last season.
- City
- Pamplona, Spain
- Stadium
- Estadio El Sadar
- Founded
- 1920
- Head coach
- Jagoba Arrasate
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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