Primeira Liga · Matchday 9
Sporting CP vs Académico Viseu prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-19
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Sporting CP win 74%, draw 16%, Académico Viseu win 10%; the final score was 1:2.
Full time: Sporting CP 1-2 Académico Viseu. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Sporting CP" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Académico Viseu | 10.1% | #3 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:2 | 3.1% | #14 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 21.7% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.3% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 5.3% | #4 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Sporting CP
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -2Hit
- Académico Viseu
- 47%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 2:0 / 2:1
- 20%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 41%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 51%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 67%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Sporting CP (74%); expected goals Sporting CP 2.60 – 0.87 Académico Viseu.
- Goals look likely: 3.47 expected in total, 67% for over 2.5 and 54% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:0 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (51%).
- Last five: Sporting CP WDDWW (3 wins), Académico Viseu WWWWL (4 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Sporting CP
- 2.60
- Expected goals · Académico Viseu
- 0.87
- Most likely score
- 2:0 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 55% / 33% / 12%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Sporting CP | Draw | Académico Viseu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 16.4% | 15.6% | 68.0% |
| Home -2≈ | 32.0% | 21.1% | 46.9% |
| Home -1 | 53.1% | 21.3% | 25.6% |
| Home +1 | 89.9% | 7.0% | 3.1% |
| Home +2 | 96.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Home +3 | 99.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -2
Correct score
- 1:08.0%
- 2:010.5%
- 2:19.2%
- 3:09.1%
- 3:17.9%
- 3:23.4%
- 4:05.9%
- 4:15.2%
- 4:22.2%
- 5:03.1%
- 5:12.7%
- 5:21.2%
- Other home win5.9%
- 0:03.3%
- 1:17.2%
- 2:24.0%
- 3:31.0%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:12.6%
- 0:21.2%
- 1:23.1%
- 0:30.3%
- 1:30.9%
- 2:31.1%
- 0:40.1%
- 1:40.2%
- 2:40.2%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.0%
- 2:50.0%
- Other away win0.3%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 86.2% | 67.3% | 45.6% | 26.8% |
| Under | 13.8% | 32.7% | 54.4% | 73.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 39.1%
- Over, even
- 28.2%
- Under, odd
- 10.5%
- Under, even
- 22.2%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 53.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 46.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · Sporting CP
- 42.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Académico Viseu
- 7.4%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 7.4% | 19.3% | 25.1% | 48.1% |
| Académico Viseu | 42.0% | 36.4% | 15.8% | 5.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 50.9% | H/D 3.4% | H/A 0.8% |
| Draw | D/H 19.9% | D/D 8.7% | D/A 3.9% |
| Away | A/H 3.6% | A/D 3.4% | A/A 5.3% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Sporting CP
Lisbon-based club and one of Portugal's traditional "Big Three", Sporting won the Primeira Liga title in 2023–24 and 2024–25 and are known for their youth academy.
- City
- Lisbon, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio José Alvalade
- Founded
- 1906
Académico Viseu
Nicknamed Os Viriatos, this Viseu club came up to the Primeira Liga after the 2025–26 season.
- City
- Viseu, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio Municipal do Fontelo
- Founded
- 1914
- Head coach
- Bruno Pinheiro
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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