Bundesliga Β· Matchday 7
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-19
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Hoffenheim win 30%, draw 23%, Bayer Leverkusen win 46%; the final score was 3:0.
Full time: Hoffenheim 3-0 Bayer Leverkusen. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Bayer Leverkusen" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Hoffenheim | 30.4% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 3:0 | 1.8% | #20 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 20.8% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.8% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 9.6% | #5 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Hoffenheim / Bayer Leverkusen
- 77%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
- Hoffenheim
- 54%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 18%
- Total goalsHit
- 3 / 4 goals
- 40%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 29%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 72%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Bayer Leverkusen (46%); expected goals Hoffenheim 1.66 β 2.06 Bayer Leverkusen.
- Goals look likely: 3.72 expected in total, 72% for over 2.5 and 72% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (9%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (29%).
- Last five: Hoffenheim WLLWL (2 wins), Bayer Leverkusen WWWDW (4 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Hoffenheim
- 1.66
- Expected goals Β· Bayer Leverkusen
- 2.06
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (9%)
- Half-time result
- 28% / 35% / 38%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Hoffenheim | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.0% | 4.1% | 93.9% |
| Home -2 | 6.1% | 9.2% | 84.7% |
| Home -1 | 15.3% | 15.1% | 69.6% |
| Home +1β | 53.6% | 19.0% | 27.4% |
| Home +2 | 72.6% | 14.2% | 13.2% |
| Home +3 | 86.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:03.0%
- 2:03.3%
- 2:16.9%
- 3:01.8%
- 3:13.8%
- 3:23.9%
- 4:00.8%
- 4:11.6%
- 4:21.6%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.5%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win2.4%
- 0:03.5%
- 1:19.3%
- 2:27.1%
- 3:32.7%
- Other draw0.7%
- 0:14.0%
- 0:25.2%
- 1:28.5%
- 0:33.5%
- 1:35.9%
- 2:34.9%
- 0:41.8%
- 1:43.0%
- 2:42.5%
- 0:50.8%
- 1:51.2%
- 2:51.0%
- Other away win4.1%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 89.6% | 71.8% | 51.0% | 31.6% |
| Under | 10.4% | 28.2% | 49.0% | 68.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 40.9%
- Over, even
- 30.8%
- Under, odd
- 7.0%
- Under, even
- 21.3%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 71.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 28.3%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Hoffenheim
- 12.7%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Bayer Leverkusen
- 19.1%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 19.1% | 31.6% | 26.2% | 23.2% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 12.7% | 26.2% | 27.0% | 34.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 18.1% | H/D 5.9% | H/A 3.6% |
| Draw | D/H 9.6% | D/D 11.3% | D/A 13.6% |
| Away | A/H 2.6% | A/D 5.9% | A/A 29.2% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Hoffenheim
A Bundesliga club from the Kraichgau area near Sinsheim, long backed by Dietmar Hopp, which finished 5th in 2025β26 and qualified for the Europa League.
- City
- Sinsheim, Germany
- Stadium
- SNP Arena
- Founded
- 1899
- Head coach
- Christian Ilzer
Bayer Leverkusen
A works club backed by the Bayer company, Leverkusen won the 2023β24 Bundesliga unbeaten, finished 6th in 2025β26 and have played in the Champions League and reached the DFB-Pokal semi-finals.
- City
- Leverkusen, Germany
- Stadium
- BayArena
- Founded
- 1904
- Head coach
- Carles MartΓnez Novell
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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