Ligue 1 · Matchday 10
Brest vs Lyon prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Brest a 34% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 38% for Lyon; the single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) with 2.73 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- Brest / Lyon
- 72%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1
- Brest
- 62%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 22%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 22%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 51%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Brest host Lyon on Ligue 1 Matchday 10 after a mixed run of two wins, one draw and two defeats, which included a 5-1 home win over Angers. Lyon have won three of their last five, but reports suggest an unsettled camp: Paulo Fonseca has left, Jorge Maciel is interim coach, and Loïs Openda is absent, with Nuamah and Niakhaté doubtful. Brest are without Chardonnet and Le Guen. Rest is six days for Brest and seven for Lyon.
The market consensus makes Lyon slight favourites at 38%, with Brest on 34% and the draw at 28%. The most likely scores are 1:1 (13%), 1:2 (9%) and 0:1 (8%). Expected goals are 1.32–1.41, with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 56%.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 02:29 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- Evenly matched: Brest 34%, draw 28%, Lyon 38% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.73 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 51%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (22%).
- Last five: Brest WLDWL (2 wins), Lyon WLWLW (3 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Brest 2 wins, 1 draws, Lyon 3 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 21 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Brest
- 1.32
- Expected goals · Lyon
- 1.41
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 27% / 43% / 30%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Brest | Draw | Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.6% | 3.9% | 94.6% |
| Home -2 | 5.4% | 10.1% | 84.4% |
| Home -1 | 15.6% | 18.6% | 65.8% |
| Home +1≈ | 61.7% | 19.9% | 18.4% |
| Home +2 | 81.6% | 11.6% | 6.8% |
| Home +3 | 93.2% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:07.7%
- 2:05.7%
- 2:18.0%
- 3:02.5%
- 3:13.5%
- 3:22.5%
- 4:00.8%
- 4:11.2%
- 4:20.8%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.8%
- 0:07.5%
- 1:113.1%
- 2:25.6%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:18.3%
- 0:26.5%
- 1:28.6%
- 0:33.0%
- 1:34.0%
- 2:32.6%
- 0:41.1%
- 1:41.4%
- 2:40.9%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.4%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win0.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76.6% | 51.3% | 29.2% | 14.1% |
| Under | 23.4% | 48.7% | 70.8% | 85.9% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 31.9%
- Over, even
- 19.3%
- Under, odd
- 16.0%
- Under, even
- 32.8%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.3%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Brest
- 24.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · Lyon
- 26.8%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | 26.8% | 35.3% | 23.3% | 14.7% |
| Lyon | 24.5% | 34.4% | 24.2% | 16.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 19.2% | H/D 5.5% | H/A 2.4% |
| Draw | D/H 12.8% | D/D 16.4% | D/A 14.1% |
| Away | A/H 2.2% | A/D 5.5% | A/A 21.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Brest 34.2% · Draw 27.5% · Lyon 38.3% · 2.5+ 51.3%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.77 | 3.58 | 2.57 | 2.75: 2.15 / 1.78 | 0: 2.03 / 1.88 |
| 1xBet | 2.92 | 3.67 | 2.50 | 2.5: 1.90 / 2.05 | 0: 2.12 / 1.84 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.77 | 3.51 | 2.57 | 2.5: 1.86 / 1.95 | 0: 2.00 / 1.85 |
| Coolbet | 2.77 | 3.55 | 2.57 | 2.5: 1.89 / 2.00 | +1: 1.26 / 4.25 |
| GTbets | 2.90 | 3.65 | 2.44 | 2.5: 1.84 / 1.96 | +0.5: 1.55 / 2.41 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.84 | 3.58 | 2.43 | 2.5: 1.84 / 1.99 | 0: 2.06 / 1.78 |
| Betsson | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.48 | 2.5: 1.89 / 1.93 | – |
| Codere (IT) | 2.80 | 3.35 | 2.55 | 2.5: 1.82 / 1.85 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.88 | 3.50 | 2.55 | 2.5: 1.83 / 1.93 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.48 | 2.5: 1.85 / 1.90 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 2.65 | 3.20 | 2.38 | 2.5: 1.73 / 1.83 | – |
| Tipico | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 2.5: 1.80 / 1.95 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.45 | 2.5: 1.83 / 1.93 | – |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.88 | 3.50 | 2.55 | 2.5: 1.85 / 1.96 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 21 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that Lyon arrive at Brest in unusually unsettled shape: Paulo Fonseca has departed suddenly, interim coach Jorge Maciel takes charge, the squad played in Europe on Thursday, and Loïs Openda heads a lengthy absentee list with Nuamah and Niakhaté also doubtful. Brest are not fully healthy either, with both Chardonnet and Le Guen missing from an already thin centre-back pool, but they are scoring regularly under Julien Lachuer and have the fresher legs. The market already reflects most of this, so the case for leaning further towards the hosts is modest rather than strong, and the defensive gaps on both sides keep a goal-filled game plausible.
- Lyon · Lyon played Real Sociedad in Europe on Thursday (1-1) and travel to Brest on Sunday. That is a short turnaround, so our 7 rest days figure ignores the European game and rotation is likely. (major · olympique-et-lyonnais.com)
- Lyon · Paulo Fonseca has left Lyon suddenly. Assistant Jorge Maciel is interim coach for the Real Sociedad and Brest games until a new coach arrives after the international break. (major · olympique-et-lyonnais.com)
- Lyon · Loïs Openda is out with a leg injury (reported as a broken fibula) and is not expected back until mid-November. (major · fotmob.com)
- Lyon · Pavel Šulc (meniscus, out until about January) and Mohamed Ouédraogo (cruciate ligament) are long-term absentees. (moderate · fotmob.com)
- Lyon · Tyler Morton is out with a groin problem (pubalgia). Steeve Kango is listed out with concussion. (minor · fotmob.com)
- Lyon · Ernest Nuamah's status is unclear. Football Whispers lists him in the treatment room this week, WhoScored has him doubtful and Sports Mole treats him as a likely attacking option. Moussa Niakhaté is also listed as doubtful. (moderate · whoscored.com)
- Brest · Brendan Chardonnet is out with a calf injury, expected back in 1-2 weeks. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Brest · Raphaël Le Guen is out long-term with a broken ankle or fibula fracture and is expected back in late January. Brest's centre-back options are thin. (moderate · fotmob.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Brest
A Breton club nicknamed Les Pirates, Brest finished third in Ligue 1 in 2023–24 and played in the Champions League the next season, then finished 9th in 2024–25.
- City
- Brest, France
- Stadium
- Stade Francis-Le Blé
- Founded
- 1950
- Head coach
- Julien Lachuer
Lyon
Lyon, nicknamed Les Gones, is a French club that won seven consecutive Ligue 1 titles from 2002 to 2008 and plays in Ligue 1.
- City
- Décines-Charpieu (Lyon), France
- Stadium
- Groupama Stadium (Parc Olympique Lyonnais)
- Founded
- 1950
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Brest
- W@ Lorient2-0 · 11-02
- LNice1-2 · 10-23
- D@ Lille1-1 · 10-17
- WAngers5-1 · 10-10
- L@ Auxerre1-2 · 09-20
Lyon
- WAngers2-0 · 11-01
- L@ Paris Saint-Germain0-2 · 10-26
- WNice2-1 · 10-18
- L@ Lens1-2 · 10-09
- WRennes4-0 · 09-19
Brest 6 days rest · Lyon 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-01-18Lyon 2-1 BrestLigue 1
- 2025-11-02Brest 0-0 LyonLigue 1
- 2025-03-02Lyon 2-1 BrestLigue 1
- 2025-01-11Brest 2-1 LyonLigue 1
- 2024-04-14Lyon 4-3 BrestLigue 1
- 2023-09-23Brest 1-0 LyonLigue 1
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