MLS Β· Matchday 34
Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Seattle Sounders a 48% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 27% for Los Angeles FC; the single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) with 3.11 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Seattle Sounders / Los Angeles FC
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1
- Los Angeles FC
- 52%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 45%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 29%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 60%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Seattle Sounders host Los Angeles FC on Decision Day of the MLS regular season (Round 34), with both sides on six days' rest. Seattle are winless in five (L 1-5 at Vancouver, L 0-1 v Houston, D 2-2 at San Diego, D 1-1 v Montreal, L 0-1 at Dallas) and have a lengthy injury list, though Paul Rothrock's return helps. They need a win and help elsewhere. LAFC, with one win, three draws and one loss in their last five, are already settled in 6th and have little to play for. LAFC won the latest meeting 1-0 in May.
Our published probabilities, blending our model with the consensus of 22 bookmakers, make Seattle favourites at 50%, with the draw at 25% and a Los Angeles win at 26%. Expected goals are 1.83β1.27. The likeliest scores are 1:1 (11%), 2:1 (10%) and 2:0 (8%). Over 2.5 goals is rated at 60% and both teams scoring at 61%, with both sides conceding freely.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 11:14 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Seattle Sounders (48%); expected goals Seattle Sounders 1.80 β 1.31 Los Angeles FC.
- Goals look likely: 3.11 expected in total, 60% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (29%).
- Last five: Seattle Sounders LLDDL (0 wins), Los Angeles FC LDDWD (1 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Seattle Sounders 1 wins, 1 draws, Los Angeles FC 4 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 23 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Seattle Sounders
- 1.80
- Expected goals Β· Los Angeles FC
- 1.31
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 37% / 40% / 24%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Seattle Sounders | Draw | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.4% | 7.5% | 88.0% |
| Home -2 | 12.0% | 14.8% | 73.2% |
| Home -1β | 26.8% | 21.0% | 52.2% |
| Home +1 | 72.9% | 15.1% | 12.0% |
| Home +2 | 88.0% | 7.9% | 4.1% |
| Home +3 | 95.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.0%
- 2:07.2%
- 2:19.5%
- 3:04.3%
- 3:15.7%
- 3:23.7%
- 4:01.9%
- 4:12.5%
- 4:21.7%
- 5:00.7%
- 5:10.9%
- 5:20.6%
- Other home win2.1%
- 0:05.5%
- 1:111.6%
- 2:26.2%
- 3:31.6%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:14.8%
- 0:23.8%
- 1:26.9%
- 0:31.7%
- 1:33.0%
- 2:32.7%
- 0:40.6%
- 1:41.0%
- 2:40.9%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win1.0%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 82.7% | 60.1% | 37.7% | 20.3% |
| Under | 17.3% | 39.9% | 62.3% | 79.7% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 36.0%
- Over, even
- 24.1%
- Under, odd
- 11.8%
- Under, even
- 28.1%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 62.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 38.0%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Seattle Sounders
- 26.9%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Los Angeles FC
- 16.6%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders | 16.6% | 29.8% | 26.8% | 26.8% |
| Los Angeles FC | 26.9% | 35.3% | 23.2% | 14.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 28.9% | H/D 5.6% | H/A 2.1% |
| Draw | D/H 15.8% | D/D 13.9% | D/A 9.8% |
| Away | A/H 3.1% | A/D 5.6% | A/A 15.2% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Seattle Sounders 47.8% Β· Draw 25.1% Β· Los Angeles FC 27.1% Β· 2.5+ 60.1%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.03 | 3.77 | 3.58 | 3: 1.95 / 1.91 | -0.5: 2.03 / 1.86 |
| 1xBet | 2.01 | 3.86 | 3.63 | 3.5: 2.33 / 1.66 | -1.5: 3.39 / 1.36 |
| BetAnything | 2.01 | 3.82 | 3.64 | 3: 1.95 / 1.87 | -0.5: 2.03 / 1.81 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.01 | 3.82 | 3.64 | 3: 1.92 / 1.87 | -0.5: 2.01 / 1.81 |
| Coolbet | 2.01 | 3.80 | 3.45 | 3: 1.96 / 1.85 | -1: 2.77 / 1.43 |
| GTbets | 1.95 | 3.83 | 3.54 | 2.5: 1.57 / 2.37 | -0.5: 1.95 / 1.83 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.93 | 3.70 | 3.48 | 3.5: 2.38 / 1.54 | 0: 1.46 / 2.57 |
| Matchbook | 2.04 | 3.90 | 3.65 | 2.5: 1.61 / 2.46 | -0.5: 2.02 / 1.90 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.02 | 3.70 | 3.38 | 2.5: 1.56 / 2.33 | -0.5: 1.98 / 1.77 |
| Betsson | 1.98 | 3.60 | 3.55 | 2.5: 1.55 / 2.38 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.70 | 3.5: 2.30 / 1.57 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 1.98 | 3.60 | 3.55 | 2.5: 1.55 / 2.38 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 1.80 | 3.55 | 3.30 | 3.5: 2.15 / 1.49 | β |
| Tipico | 1.97 | 3.60 | 3.20 | 3.5: 2.20 / 1.55 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 23 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Seattle go into Decision Day needing a win and help elsewhere, while LAFC are already locked into 6th and have little to play for, which the market reflects with Seattle near 50%. We trim the home price slightly because Seattle's five-game winless run and lengthy injury list are worrying, though Paul Rothrock's return helps. With both sides conceding freely, a game with three or more goals looks more likely than not.
- Seattle Sounders Β· Seattle are in a must-win Decision Day situation. They are level on points with Portland and Colorado, and even a win may not be enough without help from other results. (major Β· mlssoccer.com)
- Seattle Sounders Β· Seattle have gone five games without a win, most recently a 5-1 loss at Vancouver. Schmetzer replaced the usual video review with a player-led feedback session before this match. (moderate Β· mlssoccer.com)
- Seattle Sounders Β· Paul Rothrock is expected back after a long hamstring injury, with Rothrock himself speaking ahead of his first game back. (moderate Β· mlssoccer.com)
- Seattle Sounders Β· Seattle remain without Nikola Petkovic (knee), Pedro de la Vega (calf/quad) and Yeimar Gomez (hamstring). Danny Musovski (head) is also listed as out or doubtful. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Los Angeles FC Β· LAFC have already clinched a playoff spot and are locked into 6th in the West, so they have little to play for in the table. They have won only 2 of their last 14 league games since the Leagues Cup. (moderate Β· bvmsports.com)
- Los Angeles FC Β· Timothy Tillman is due to rejoin the squad soon after injury, according to Tamarit. Igor Jesus has recently returned from a year-long knee rehabilitation. (minor Β· lafc.com)
- Los Angeles FC Β· LAFC are on a three-match winless run, including a 1-3 home loss to Minnesota. Son Heung-min and Denis Bouanga remain the main attacking threats. (minor Β· sounderatheart.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Seattle Sounders
A Seattle-based MLS club known for strong supporter culture and large crowds, with two MLS Cup titles (2016, 2019) and the 2025 Leagues Cup under long-serving coach Brian Schmetzer.
- City
- Seattle, United States
- Stadium
- Lumen Field
- Founded
- 2007
- Head coach
- Brian Schmetzer
Los Angeles FC
An MLS club from Los Angeles that began play in 2018 and has been a regular Western Conference playoff side; in 2026 it sits in the playoff places under interim coach Xavi Tamarit.
- City
- Los Angeles, United States
- Stadium
- BMO Stadium
- Founded
- 2014
- Head coach
- Xavi Tamarit (interim)
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Seattle Sounders
- L@ Vancouver Whitecaps FC1-5 Β· 11-01
- LHouston Dynamo0-1 Β· 10-29
- D@ San Diego FC2-2 Β· 10-25
- DCF MontrΓ©al1-1 Β· 10-18
- L@ FC Dallas0-1 Β· 10-15
Los Angeles FC
- LMinnesota United FC1-3 Β· 11-02
- DLA Galaxy2-2 Β· 10-26
- D@ New York City FC1-1 Β· 10-17
- WAustin FC3-1 Β· 10-15
- DVancouver Whitecaps FC1-1 Β· 10-11
Seattle Sounders 6 days rest Β· Los Angeles FC 6 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-05-25Los Angeles FC 1-0 Seattle SoundersMLS
- 2025-05-15Los Angeles FC 4-0 Seattle SoundersMLS
- 2025-03-08Seattle Sounders 5-2 Los Angeles FCMLS
- 2024-11-24Los Angeles FC 1-1 Seattle SoundersMLS
- 2024-07-21Seattle Sounders 0-3 Los Angeles FCMLS
- 2024-02-24Los Angeles FC 2-1 Seattle SoundersMLS
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: MLS β