Bundesliga Β· Matchday 9
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives SC Freiburg a 63% chance of winning, 21% for a draw and 16% for Union Berlin; the single most likely score is 2:0 (10%) with 3.09 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)
- SC Freiburg
- 63%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1
- SC Freiburg
- 40%
- Correct score
- 2:0 / 2:1
- 20%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 45%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 40%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 60%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Freiburg host Union Berlin in Bundesliga Matchday 9 with eight days of rest to Union's seven. Freiburg's last five read W-L-L-W-D, the latest a 2-1 win at Augsburg. Union have drawn three of their last five, including a 1-1 with KΓΆln last time out, and also lost 0-7 at Bayern. Union are unbeaten in the last four meetings (two wins, two 0-0 draws). Pre-match reports mention a suspension for Uduokhai and defensive absences, though that news may be incomplete.
The market consensus makes Freiburg clear favourites: 63% home win, 21% draw and 16% away win. Expected goals are 2.12β0.96, and 2:0, 2:1 and 1:1 are each given 10%. The published probabilities put over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 55%.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 03:24 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour SC Freiburg (63%); expected goals SC Freiburg 2.12 β 0.96 Union Berlin.
- Goals look likely: 3.09 expected in total, 60% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:0 (10%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (40%).
- Last five: SC Freiburg WLLWD (2 wins), Union Berlin DDDWL (1 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: SC Freiburg 0 wins, 3 draws, Union Berlin 3 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 23 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· SC Freiburg
- 2.12
- Expected goals Β· Union Berlin
- 0.96
- Most likely score
- 2:0 (10%)
- Half-time result
- 46% / 38% / 16%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | SC Freiburg | Draw | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 9.1% | 11.9% | 79.0% |
| Home -2 | 21.0% | 19.4% | 59.7% |
| Home -1β | 40.3% | 23.2% | 36.5% |
| Home +1 | 84.3% | 10.3% | 5.4% |
| Home +2 | 94.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Home +3 | 98.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.2%
- 2:010.3%
- 2:19.9%
- 3:07.3%
- 3:17.0%
- 3:23.4%
- 4:03.9%
- 4:13.7%
- 4:21.8%
- 5:01.6%
- 5:11.6%
- 5:20.8%
- Other home win3.0%
- 0:05.0%
- 1:19.8%
- 2:24.8%
- 3:31.1%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:13.9%
- 0:22.1%
- 1:24.5%
- 0:30.7%
- 1:31.4%
- 2:31.5%
- 0:40.2%
- 1:40.3%
- 2:40.4%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.4%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 81.8% | 59.6% | 37.3% | 20.0% |
| Under | 18.2% | 40.4% | 62.7% | 80.0% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 35.8%
- Over, even
- 23.8%
- Under, odd
- 13.2%
- Under, even
- 27.2%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 55.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 45.0%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· SC Freiburg
- 38.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Union Berlin
- 12.0%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 12.0% | 25.4% | 27.0% | 35.7% |
| Union Berlin | 38.1% | 36.8% | 17.7% | 7.4% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 40.4% | H/D 4.4% | H/A 1.2% |
| Draw | D/H 19.7% | D/D 12.1% | D/A 6.2% |
| Away | A/H 3.4% | A/D 4.4% | A/A 8.3% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): SC Freiburg 63.5% Β· Draw 20.8% Β· Union Berlin 15.7% Β· 2.5+ 59.6%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.67 | 6.41 | 3: 2.07 / 1.83 | -1: 1.82 / 2.11 |
| 1xBet | 1.56 | 4.72 | 6.11 | 2.5: 1.66 / 2.42 | -1.5: 2.42 / 1.66 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.50 | 4.72 | 6.35 | 3: 2.00 / 1.82 | -1: 1.77 / 2.08 |
| Coolbet | 1.50 | 4.75 | 6.50 | 3: 2.00 / 1.82 | -1: 1.81 / 2.05 |
| GTbets | 1.53 | 4.44 | 6.19 | 2.5: 1.60 / 2.30 | -1.5: 2.31 / 1.60 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.52 | 4.60 | 5.95 | 3.5: 2.49 / 1.55 | -1: 1.82 / 2.01 |
| Matchbook | 1.51 | 4.80 | 7.00 | 2.5: 1.68 / 2.40 | -1.25: 2.08 / 1.82 |
| Betsson | 1.47 | 4.50 | 6.20 | 2.5: 1.62 / 2.32 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 1.51 | 4.50 | 6.00 | 2.5: 1.57 / 2.20 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.47 | 4.30 | 5.75 | 2.5: 1.56 / 2.43 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 1.47 | 4.50 | 6.20 | 2.5: 1.60 / 2.30 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 1.44 | 4.20 | 5.60 | 2.5: 1.47 / 2.25 | β |
| Tipico | 1.47 | 4.80 | 6.00 | 2.5: 1.57 / 2.35 | β |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.50 | 4.60 | 6.25 | 2.5: 1.55 / 2.38 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 23 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that this match is roughly as the market sees it: Freiburg are clear favourites at home, but their Thursday night in Trabzon and the expected rotation take a little of the shine off, while Union arrive with a patched-up back line after Uduokhai's suspension and a string of defensive injuries. Union's recent games have been low-scoring and tight, and their unbeaten run against Freiburg suggests they can frustrate, so a draw deserves slightly more respect than the raw numbers imply. None of the news is genuinely fresh enough to shift the picture materially.
- SC Freiburg Β· Freiburg played Trabzonspor in Europe on 5 Nov, three days before this match, so rotation is expected. Our listed 8 rest days appears to ignore that game. (moderate Β· sports.yahoo.com)
- SC Freiburg Β· Midfielder Patrick Osterhage is a doubt with a muscle problem. He missed the Trabzonspor game. (minor Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- SC Freiburg Β· Defender Bruno Ogbus is a doubt, to be assessed closer to kick-off. Florent Muslija (cruciate ligament) and Yilmaz are out. (minor Β· thestatszone.com)
- SC Freiburg Β· After the Trabzonspor game some Freiburg players had minor knocks, but coach Schuster said nothing serious. Mio Backhaus is expected to stay in goal. (minor Β· tipsterio.de)
- Union Berlin Β· Centre-back Felix Uduokhai is suspended after his red card in the 1-1 draw at Augsburg. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Union Berlin Β· Stanley Nsoki (calf), Robert Skov (knock), Andrik Markgraf (cruciate ligament) and Aljoscha Kemlein (shoulder, picked up against KΓΆln) are all out. (major Β· berlin.t-online.de)
- Union Berlin Β· Striker Andrej Ilic is close to a first squad return after a long layoff (food poisoning, then appendix surgery). Coach Lustrinelli said his chance of featuring is high but cautioned against expecting too much. Some previews still list him (moderate Β· berlin.t-online.de)
- Union Berlin Β· Union are 16th with 7 points and just above the relegation zone. They have scored only 3 goals in their last five competitive games but are unbeaten in four league matches. (moderate Β· sports.yahoo.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
SC Freiburg
A well-organised club from southwest Germany, known for its youth development and stable long-term planning, that finished 7th in the 2025β26 Bundesliga and reached the Europa League final.
- City
- Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
- Stadium
- Europa-Park Stadion
- Founded
- 1904
- Head coach
- Julian Schuster
Union Berlin
A working-class club from Berlin's KΓΆpenick district, known for its passionate fans and atmospheric stadium, and an established Bundesliga side that has played in Europe in recent years.
- City
- Berlin, Germany
- Stadium
- Stadion An der Alten FΓΆrsterei
- Founded
- 1966
- Head coach
- Mauro Lustrinelli
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
SC Freiburg
- W@ FC Augsburg2-1 Β· 10-31
- LBayern Munich1-3 Β· 10-25
- L@ Bayer Leverkusen1-2 Β· 10-18
- WSchalke 042-1 Β· 10-11
- D@ Eintracht Frankfurt2-2 Β· 09-19
Union Berlin
- D1. FC KΓΆln1-1 Β· 11-01
- D@ FC Augsburg1-1 Β· 10-24
- DBorussia Dortmund0-0 Β· 10-17
- WSV Elversberg1-0 Β· 10-10
- L@ Bayern Munich0-7 Β· 09-18
SC Freiburg 8 days rest Β· Union Berlin 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-03-15SC Freiburg 0-1 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 2025-11-01Union Berlin 0-0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 2025-03-30SC Freiburg 1-2 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 2024-11-08Union Berlin 0-0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 2024-05-18Union Berlin 2-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 2024-01-13SC Freiburg 0-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: Bundesliga β