Premier League Β· Matchday 10
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Crystal Palace a 17% chance of winning, 22% for a draw and 61% for Liverpool; the single most likely score is 1:1 (10%) with 3.15 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)
- Liverpool
- 61%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1
- Crystal Palace
- 39%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 20%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 44%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 40%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 61%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Crystal Palace arrive in a deep slump, beaten in their last three league games without scoring (0-2 at Tottenham, 0-2 v Newcastle, 0-5 at Brighton). Mateta is suspended after his appeal failed, Ismaila Sarr is out, and Strand Larsen is fit for only part of the match. Liverpool have a long absentee list and lost midweek at Fenerbahce. Palace have had 8 days of rest, Liverpool 7.
The published probabilities, the market consensus of 25 bookmakers, make Liverpool favourites at 61%, with the draw at 22% and a Palace win at 17%. Expected goals are 1.04 for Palace and 2.09 for Liverpool. The likeliest scores are 1:1, 1:2 and 0:2, each at 10%. Over 2.5 goals is 60% and both teams scoring is 57%.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 12:26 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Liverpool (61%); expected goals Crystal Palace 1.05 β 2.11 Liverpool.
- Goals look likely: 3.15 expected in total, 61% for over 2.5 and 58% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (10%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (40%).
- Last five: Crystal Palace LLLWD (1 wins), Liverpool LWWLW (3 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Crystal Palace 2 wins, 1 draws, Liverpool 3 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 25 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Crystal Palace
- 1.05
- Expected goals Β· Liverpool
- 2.11
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (10%)
- Half-time result
- 18% / 36% / 46%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Crystal Palace | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.4% | 1.4% | 98.2% |
| Home -2 | 1.8% | 4.6% | 93.6% |
| Home -1 | 6.4% | 10.9% | 82.7% |
| Home +1β | 38.9% | 22.7% | 38.4% |
| Home +2 | 61.6% | 18.7% | 19.8% |
| Home +3 | 80.2% | 11.3% | 8.5% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:03.8%
- 2:02.3%
- 2:14.9%
- 3:00.8%
- 3:11.7%
- 3:21.8%
- 4:00.2%
- 4:10.4%
- 4:20.5%
- 5:00.0%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.5%
- 0:04.9%
- 1:110.0%
- 2:25.2%
- 3:31.3%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:18.4%
- 0:29.5%
- 1:29.9%
- 0:36.7%
- 1:37.0%
- 2:33.6%
- 0:43.5%
- 1:43.7%
- 2:41.9%
- 0:51.5%
- 1:51.6%
- 2:50.8%
- Other away win3.1%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 82.9% | 61.0% | 38.7% | 21.1% |
| Under | 17.1% | 39.0% | 61.3% | 78.9% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 36.5%
- Over, even
- 24.6%
- Under, odd
- 12.2%
- Under, even
- 26.7%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 57.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 42.4%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Crystal Palace
- 12.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Liverpool
- 35.2%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 35.2% | 36.8% | 19.2% | 8.9% |
| Liverpool | 12.1% | 25.6% | 27.0% | 35.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 9.7% | H/D 4.7% | H/A 3.3% |
| Draw | D/H 6.3% | D/D 12.1% | D/A 17.6% |
| Away | A/H 1.3% | A/D 4.7% | A/A 40.2% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Crystal Palace 17.3% Β· Draw 21.6% Β· Liverpool 61.1% Β· 2.5+ 61.1%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 5.83 | 4.51 | 1.56 | 3: 1.90 / 1.98 | +1: 1.96 / 1.94 |
| 1xBet | 5.54 | 4.62 | 1.62 | 3.5: 2.46 / 1.64 | +1.5: 1.61 / 2.54 |
| BetAnything | 5.63 | 4.53 | 1.56 | 3: 1.91 / 1.91 | +1: 1.91 / 1.91 |
| BetOnline.ag | 5.60 | 4.44 | 1.58 | 3: 1.88 / 1.93 | +1: 1.87 / 1.96 |
| Coolbet | 6.00 | 4.45 | 1.59 | 3: 1.87 / 2.00 | +1: 1.94 / 1.92 |
| GTbets | 5.10 | 4.27 | 1.58 | 3.5: 2.37 / 1.57 | +0.5: 2.32 / 1.57 |
| Marathon Bet | 5.45 | 4.55 | 1.59 | 3.5: 2.39 / 1.59 | +1: 1.90 / 1.90 |
| Matchbook | 5.90 | 4.60 | 1.60 | 3.5: 2.50 / 1.62 | +1: 1.98 / 1.94 |
| MyBookie.ag | 5.30 | 4.40 | 1.56 | 3.5: 2.34 / 1.56 | +0.5: 2.37 / 1.54 |
| Betsson | 5.55 | 4.35 | 1.56 | 2.5: 1.54 / 2.51 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 5.40 | 4.30 | 1.58 | 3.5: 2.29 / 1.53 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 5.75 | 4.50 | 1.51 | 3.5: 2.25 / 1.66 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 5.60 | 4.35 | 1.55 | 2.5: 1.55 / 2.50 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 5.20 | 4.20 | 1.47 | 3.5: 2.10 / 1.54 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 25 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the bookmakers already have this about right: Crystal Palace are in a deep slump, scoreless in three league games, and now face Liverpool without Mateta after his suspension appeal failed and without Ismaila Sarr, while Strand Larsen is only fit for part of the match. Liverpool are far from full strength themselves after a midweek defeat at Fenerbahce and a long absentee list, which keeps a shock in play. The confirmed Mateta ban and Palace's fixture congestion nudge the picture marginally further towards the visitors, but not by much.
- Crystal Palace Β· Jean-Philippe Mateta begins a three-match suspension after his red card at Tottenham. Palace's appeal failed. (major Β· readcrystalpalace.com)
- Crystal Palace Β· Ismaila Sarr (groin) is out and is expected back after the international break. Chadi Riad (knee) and Takehiro Tomiyasu (calf) are also out. (major Β· dave.sport)
- Crystal Palace Β· Jorgen Strand Larsen is fit to lead the line after an ankle problem. Sage said he can play 60-75 minutes, and Eddie Nketiah is the other option. (moderate Β· dave.sport)
- Crystal Palace Β· Palace drew 1-1 with Hoffenheim in the Europa League on Thursday 2026-11-06. This contradicts the 8 rest days in our data, and the real gap is about 3 days. Adam Wharton's red card in that game was European, so he is available. (moderate Β· 101greatgoals.com)
- Crystal Palace Β· Palace are 18th with 7 points and winless in their last three league games, with no goals scored. Pierre Sage's job is reported to be under severe pressure and another defeat could end his tenure. (moderate Β· readcrystalpalace.com)
- Liverpool Β· Ryan Gravenberch (heel) is a doubt and is being assessed day by day. He missed the Arsenal game and the Fenerbahce game, and Iraola called him the only doubt. (moderate Β· liverpoolfc.com)
- Liverpool Β· Jeremie Frimpong, Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitike and Giovanni Leoni are out. Official site says Frimpong's return comes too soon for this game. Other outlets say he is fit but being held back as a precaution. (moderate Β· liverpoolfc.com)
- Liverpool Β· Liverpool lost 3-2 at Fenerbahce in the Champions League on Wednesday 2026-11-04. That follows the home loss to Arsenal, so they have lost two in a row and had about 4 days' rest rather than the 7 in our data. Iraola admitted rotation has l (moderate Β· livescore.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Crystal Palace
A south London Premier League club nicknamed the Eagles, who won the FA Cup in 2025 and are now coached by Frenchman Pierre Sage, appointed in June 2026.
- City
- London, England
- Stadium
- Selhurst Park
- Founded
- 1861
- Head coach
- Pierre Sage
Liverpool
Liverpool, nicknamed the Reds, are one of England's most successful and widely supported clubs and finished 5th in the 2025β26 Premier League.
- City
- Liverpool, England
- Stadium
- Anfield
- Founded
- 1892
- Head coach
- Andoni Iraola
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Crystal Palace
- L@ Tottenham Hotspur0-2 Β· 10-31
- LNewcastle United0-2 Β· 10-25
- L@ Brighton0-5 Β· 10-18
- WNottingham Forest3-1 Β· 10-11
- D@ Leeds United0-0 Β· 09-20
Liverpool
- LArsenal0-1 Β· 11-01
- WBrighton2-0 Β· 10-25
- W@ Brentford2-1 Β· 10-17
- LManchester City0-3 Β· 10-11
- W@ Bournemouth1-0 Β· 09-20
Crystal Palace 8 days rest Β· Liverpool 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-04-25Liverpool 3-1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 2025-09-27Crystal Palace 2-1 LiverpoolPremier League
- 2025-05-25Liverpool 1-1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 2024-10-05Crystal Palace 0-1 LiverpoolPremier League
- 2024-04-14Liverpool 0-1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 2023-12-09Crystal Palace 1-2 LiverpoolPremier League
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: Premier League β