Premier League Β· Matchday 10
Brighton vs Brentford prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Brighton a 50% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 25% for Brentford; the single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) with 3.10 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Brighton
- 50%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1
- Brentford
- 50%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 45%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 32%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 60%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Brighton host Brentford in Premier League Matchweek 10, with both sides on eight days of rest. Brighton have won four of their last five, scoring 11 and conceding 2, including 1-0 at Manchester City and 3-0 against Arsenal. Brentford have won two, drawn two and lost one, beating Chelsea 3-0 in that run. Brighton have won the last two meetings. Reported team news: Mitoma and Ferguson are out, while Kadioglu, Struijk and Azeez are doubtful after the midweek trip to Getafe. Brentford have Yarmoliuk back, and Damsgaard has a managed foot issue.
The published probabilities, the margin-free market consensus of 25 bookmakers, make Brighton favourites at 50%, with the draw and a Brentford win both at 25%. Expected goals are 1.83 to 1.26. Over 2.5 goals stands at 60% and both teams scoring at 61%. The most likely scores are 1:1 (11%), 2:1 (10%) and 2:0 (8%).
Written Sat, Nov 7, 12:26 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Brighton (50%); expected goals Brighton 1.84 β 1.25 Brentford.
- Goals look likely: 3.10 expected in total, 60% for over 2.5 and 61% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (32%).
- Last five: Brighton WLWWW (4 wins), Brentford WDLDW (2 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Brighton 3 wins, 2 draws, Brentford 1 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 25 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Brighton
- 1.84
- Expected goals Β· Brentford
- 1.25
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 39% / 38% / 23%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Brighton | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 5.0% | 8.2% | 86.8% |
| Home -2 | 13.2% | 15.6% | 71.2% |
| Home -1β | 28.8% | 21.6% | 49.7% |
| Home +1 | 74.9% | 14.4% | 10.7% |
| Home +2 | 89.3% | 7.2% | 3.5% |
| Home +3 | 96.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.4%
- 2:07.7%
- 2:19.6%
- 3:04.7%
- 3:15.9%
- 3:23.7%
- 4:02.2%
- 4:12.7%
- 4:21.7%
- 5:00.8%
- 5:11.0%
- 5:20.6%
- Other home win2.2%
- 0:05.4%
- 1:111.3%
- 2:26.0%
- 3:31.6%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:14.8%
- 0:23.5%
- 1:26.5%
- 0:31.5%
- 1:32.7%
- 2:32.5%
- 0:40.5%
- 1:40.9%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 82.4% | 59.9% | 37.5% | 20.2% |
| Under | 17.6% | 40.1% | 62.5% | 79.8% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 35.9%
- Over, even
- 23.9%
- Under, odd
- 12.2%
- Under, even
- 27.9%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 61.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 39.0%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Brighton
- 28.5%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Brentford
- 15.8%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 15.8% | 29.2% | 26.9% | 28.1% |
| Brentford | 28.5% | 35.8% | 22.4% | 13.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 31.8% | H/D 5.5% | H/A 1.8% |
| Draw | D/H 15.5% | D/D 13.6% | D/A 8.8% |
| Away | A/H 3.0% | A/D 5.5% | A/A 14.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Brighton 50.3% Β· Draw 24.5% Β· Brentford 25.1% Β· 2.5+ 59.9%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.91 | 3.95 | 3.91 | 3: 1.98 / 1.91 | -0.5: 1.92 / 1.99 |
| 1xBet | 1.98 | 4.05 | 3.78 | 2.5: 1.64 / 2.47 | 0: 1.52 / 2.79 |
| BetAnything | 1.91 | 4.01 | 3.76 | 3: 1.91 / 1.91 | -0.5: 1.91 / 1.91 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.85 | 4.02 | 4.07 | 3: 1.93 / 1.89 | -0.5: 1.85 / 2.07 |
| Coolbet | 1.93 | 3.94 | 4.02 | 3: 1.94 / 1.92 | -1: 2.57 / 1.55 |
| GTbets | 1.92 | 3.89 | 3.67 | 2.5: 1.58 / 2.33 | -0.5: 1.88 / 1.88 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.93 | 3.94 | 3.68 | 3.5: 2.44 / 1.57 | -1: 2.62 / 1.50 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.88 | 3.85 | 3.70 | 2.5: 1.56 / 2.33 | -0.5: 1.85 / 1.88 |
| Betsson | 1.89 | 3.80 | 3.83 | 2.5: 1.59 / 2.40 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 2.5: 1.54 / 2.27 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.87 | 3.85 | 3.80 | 2.5: 1.57 / 2.40 | β |
| Matchbook | 1.94 | 4.00 | 4.10 | β | -0.5: 1.88 / 2.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.90 | 3.80 | 3.85 | 2.5: 1.58 / 2.38 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 2.5: 1.48 / 2.23 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 25 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the market has this roughly right: Brighton's home form and attacking output justify clear favouritism, while Brentford arrive unbeaten in draws on the road and with Yarmoliuk restored. The main caveat is Brighton's thinning squad, with Mitoma and Ferguson out and Kadioglu, Struijk and Azeez doubtful after a midweek trip to Getafe, which slightly tempers the home edge. Damsgaard's managed foot issue limits Brentford's creativity, so neither side's news tilts things decisively.
- Brighton Β· Kaoru Mitoma, Stefanos Tzimas, Evan Ferguson and Zadok Yohanna are out injured. (moderate Β· livescore.com)
- Brighton Β· Ferdi Kadioglu, Pascal Struijk and Femi Azeez are fitness doubts. They did not travel to Getafe, and Hurzeler said this was not just a precaution. (moderate Β· sports.yahoo.com)
- Brighton Β· Brighton won 1-0 at Getafe in the Conference League on Thursday. Hurzeler made five changes for that game, and the key players he rested are expected back against Brentford. (minor Β· beinsports.com)
- Brighton Β· Brighton are third in the table and have the league's top attack with 24 goals. They have won all their home league games this season except one draw and have conceded once at the Amex. (moderate Β· beinsports.com)
- Brentford Β· Yehor Yarmoliuk has completed his three-match suspension and is available. Keith Andrews reported no fresh injury concerns after the 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest. (minor Β· brentfordfc.com)
- Brentford Β· Fabio Carvalho and Rico Henry remain sidelined. Antoni Milambo is probably not available yet, and Josh Dasilva is still building fitness. (moderate Β· brentfordfc.com)
- Brentford Β· Mikkel Damsgaard is being managed carefully because of a foot issue. Jaidon Anthony is pushing to start. (moderate Β· livescore.com)
- Brentford Β· Brentford have drawn all four of their away league games this season and are still looking for a first away win. (minor Β· sports.yahoo.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Brighton
Nicknamed the Seagulls, Brighton are a south-coast Premier League club known for a data-driven recruitment model and possession-based football. They finished 8th in 2025β26, which earned a place in the 2026β27 UEFA Conference League.
- City
- Brighton and Hove, England
- Stadium
- Falmer Stadium (American Express Stadium)
- Founded
- 1901
- Head coach
- Fabian HΓΌrzeler
Brentford
Nicknamed the Bees, this west London club is known for its data-driven recruitment and well-organised, set-piece-strong play.
- City
- London (Brentford), England
- Stadium
- Gtech Community Stadium
- Founded
- 1889
- Head coach
- Keith Andrews
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Brighton
- W@ Manchester City1-0 Β· 10-31
- L@ Liverpool0-2 Β· 10-25
- WCrystal Palace5-0 Β· 10-18
- W@ Sunderland2-0 Β· 10-10
- WArsenal3-0 Β· 09-19
Brentford
- WNottingham Forest2-0 Β· 10-31
- D@ Hull City1-1 Β· 10-25
- LLiverpool1-2 Β· 10-17
- D@ Aston Villa2-2 Β· 10-10
- WChelsea3-0 Β· 09-18
Brighton 8 days rest Β· Brentford 8 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-02-21Brentford 0-2 BrightonPremier League
- 2025-11-22Brighton 2-1 BrentfordPremier League
- 2025-04-19Brentford 4-2 BrightonPremier League
- 2024-12-27Brighton 0-0 BrentfordPremier League
- 2024-04-03Brentford 0-0 BrightonPremier League
- 2023-12-06Brighton 2-1 BrentfordPremier League
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: Premier League β