MLS Β· Matchday 34
Austin FC vs Portland Timbers prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Austin FC a 23% chance of winning, 22% for a draw and 55% for Portland Timbers; the single most likely score is 1:1 (9%) with 3.60 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Portland Timbers
- 55%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1
- Austin FC
- 45%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 19%
- Total goals
- 3 / 4 goals
- 40%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 35%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 70%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Austin are in a dead rubber. They finish 14th whatever happens and are expected to give minutes to academy players under outgoing interim coach Davy Arnaud. They have lost four of their last five, although they won 2-1 in Portland on 30 August. Portland Timbers arrive on a three-game winning streak and clinch a playoff place with a win, despite absences that include a backup goalkeeper. Rest is 7 days for Austin and 6 for Portland.
The published probabilities make Portland the favourites at 56%, with Austin at 22% and the draw at 22%. Expected goals are 1.32β2.17, over 2.5 goals is 68% and both teams scoring is 66%. The most likely scores are 1:1 (10%), 1:2 (9%) and 0:2 (7%). With both defences conceding, that points to a fairly open match.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 11:10 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Portland Timbers (55%); expected goals Austin FC 1.39 β 2.20 Portland Timbers.
- Goals look likely: 3.60 expected in total, 70% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (9%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (35%).
- Last five: Austin FC LLWLL (1 wins), Portland Timbers WWWDL (3 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Austin FC 2 wins, 1 draws, Portland Timbers 3 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 23 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Austin FC
- 1.39
- Expected goals Β· Portland Timbers
- 2.20
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (9%)
- Half-time result
- 22% / 36% / 42%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Austin FC | Draw | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.0% | 2.5% | 96.5% |
| Home -2 | 3.5% | 6.7% | 89.8% |
| Home -1 | 10.2% | 12.7% | 77.1% |
| Home +1β | 45.0% | 20.6% | 34.5% |
| Home +2 | 65.5% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| Home +3 | 82.2% | 10.0% | 7.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:02.9%
- 2:02.7%
- 2:15.9%
- 3:01.2%
- 3:12.7%
- 3:23.0%
- 4:00.4%
- 4:10.9%
- 4:21.0%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.4%
- 0:03.6%
- 1:19.3%
- 2:26.5%
- 3:32.2%
- Other draw0.5%
- 0:15.1%
- 0:26.7%
- 1:29.3%
- 0:34.9%
- 1:36.8%
- 2:34.7%
- 0:42.7%
- 1:43.8%
- 2:42.6%
- 0:51.2%
- 1:51.7%
- 2:51.2%
- Other away win4.4%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 88.3% | 69.7% | 48.4% | 29.3% |
| Under | 11.7% | 30.3% | 51.6% | 70.7% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 40.1%
- Over, even
- 29.6%
- Under, odd
- 8.1%
- Under, even
- 22.3%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 67.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 32.3%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Austin FC
- 11.0%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Portland Timbers
- 24.9%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin FC | 24.9% | 34.6% | 24.1% | 16.5% |
| Portland Timbers | 11.0% | 24.3% | 26.8% | 37.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 12.9% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 3.9% |
| Draw | D/H 8.0% | D/D 11.2% | D/A 16.4% |
| Away | A/H 2.0% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 34.7% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Austin FC 22.9% Β· Draw 22.1% Β· Portland Timbers 55.0% Β· 2.5+ 69.7%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 4.19 | 4.41 | 1.74 | 3.5: 1.90 / 1.97 | +0.75: 1.96 / 1.93 |
| 1xBet | 4.21 | 4.37 | 1.77 | 3.5: 1.93 / 1.96 | +1.5: 1.52 / 2.66 |
| BetAnything | 4.15 | 4.30 | 1.71 | 3.5: 1.88 / 1.94 | +0.5: 2.12 / 1.76 |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.20 | 4.38 | 1.76 | 3.5: 1.88 / 1.91 | +0.5: 2.07 / 1.76 |
| Coolbet | 4.20 | 4.40 | 1.70 | 3.5: 1.89 / 1.89 | +1: 1.68 / 2.15 |
| GTbets | 4.15 | 4.19 | 1.70 | 3.5: 1.95 / 1.83 | +0.5: 2.07 / 1.68 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.05 | 4.20 | 1.70 | 3.5: 1.88 / 1.86 | +1: 1.65 / 2.14 |
| Matchbook | 4.30 | 4.70 | 1.76 | 3.5: 1.93 / 2.00 | +0.75: 1.97 / 1.92 |
| MyBookie.ag | 4.10 | 4.20 | 1.73 | 3.5: 1.85 / 1.88 | +0.5: 2.07 / 1.70 |
| Betsson | 4.10 | 4.15 | 1.72 | 2.5: 1.35 / 3.15 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.50 | 4.50 | 1.70 | 3.5: 1.96 / 1.80 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 4.10 | 4.15 | 1.72 | 2.5: 1.35 / 3.15 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 4.00 | 3.95 | 1.56 | 3.5: 1.83 / 1.68 | β |
| Tipico | 4.00 | 4.30 | 1.62 | 3.5: 1.75 / 1.90 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 23 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
This is a dead rubber for Austin, who finish 14th regardless and will hand minutes to academy players under outgoing interim coach Davy Arnaud, while Portland clinch a playoff place with a win. The Timbers' three-game winning streak and Austin's four defeats in five make the visitors clear favourites despite their own absences, including a backup goalkeeper. With both defences leaking goals, a lively, higher-scoring match looks likely.
- Austin FC Β· Austin are eliminated from the playoffs and guaranteed 14th in the West, so the match is a dead rubber for them. (major Β· mlssoccer.com)
- Austin FC Β· Interim coach Davy Arnaud takes charge for the last time before Jim Curtin takes over. He has said he wants to give minutes to young players such as Torres, Alastuey, Burton and goalkeeper Damian Las. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Austin FC Β· Zan Kolmanic is suspended after his red card against LA Galaxy. Chris Applewhite (quad) and Jon Bell (lower abdomen) are also out. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Austin FC Β· Centre-back Oleksandr Svatok could return. Uzuni and Ramirez, both on 9 goals, are available and chasing the club striker scoring record. (minor Β· whoscored.com)
- Portland Timbers Β· Portland win and they clinch a playoff place. A draw or loss would leave them relying on other results, and they could finish anywhere from 7th to 12th. (major Β· timbers.com)
- Portland Timbers Β· Portland have six players out: Alex Bonetig (shoulder), Brandon Bye (knee), Jimer Fory (concussion), Zac McGraw (back), Juan Mosquera (foot/ankle) and goalkeeper Trey Muse (concussion). (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Portland Timbers Β· Kamal Miller has served his suspension and is expected to start. Velde, Da Costa, Janssen and Lassiter are available. (minor Β· whoscored.com)
- Portland Timbers Β· Portland arrive on a three-game winning streak, including a 3-1 home win over Houston in their previous match. They have not lost in Austin since 2021. (moderate Β· beinsports.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Austin FC
An MLS expansion club that joined in 2021 and reached the Western Conference Final in 2022; Davy Arnaud has been interim head coach since Nico EstΓ©vez left in May 2026.
- City
- Austin, Texas, United States
- Stadium
- Q2 Stadium
- Founded
- 2018
- Head coach
- Davy Arnaud (interim)
Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers are the MLS club of Oregon's largest city, known for their passionate Timbers Army supporters. They sit in the lower half of the Western Conference in 2026 under new coach MartΓ Cifuentes.
- City
- Portland, Oregon, United States
- Stadium
- Providence Park
- Founded
- 1975
- Head coach
- MartΓ Cifuentes
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Austin FC
- L@ LA Galaxy1-4 Β· 10-31
- LReal Salt Lake1-2 Β· 10-29
- W@ Sporting Kansas City2-1 Β· 10-25
- LVancouver Whitecaps FC1-2 Β· 10-18
- L@ Los Angeles FC1-3 Β· 10-15
Portland Timbers
- WHouston Dynamo3-1 Β· 11-02
- W@ St. Louis City SC3-2 Β· 10-29
- WCharlotte FC3-2 Β· 10-25
- DColorado Rapids0-0 Β· 10-18
- L@ LA Galaxy0-2 Β· 10-15
Austin FC 7 days rest Β· Portland Timbers 6 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-08-30Portland Timbers 1-2 Austin FCMLS
- 2025-04-05Austin FC 0-0 Portland TimbersMLS
- 2025-03-02Portland Timbers 1-0 Austin FCMLS
- 2024-10-03Portland Timbers 0-1 Austin FCMLS
- 2024-05-30Austin FC 0-2 Portland TimbersMLS
- 2023-09-18Austin FC 1-2 Portland TimbersMLS
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: MLS β