EFL Championship · Matchday 15
Wrexham vs Wolves prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Wrexham win 26%, draw 28%, Wolves win 45%; the final score was 1:1.
Full time: Wrexham 1-1 Wolves. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Wolves" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Draw | 28.4% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:1 | 13.5% | most likely |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 26.6% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.0% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/D | 17.8% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Draw / Wolves
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Hit
- Wrexham
- 55%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 0:1
- 24%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 28%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Under
- 54%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude before kick-off)
Wrexham host Wolves in Championship Round 15, with both sides on three days' rest and playing their third match in a week. Wolves are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw), while Wrexham have won two and lost three. The hosts are short up front: Sam Smith is out for the season with a knee injury, Windass and Broadhead are absent, and O'Hare is probably out too. Wolves are expected to rotate.
Our published probabilities are Wrexham 29%, draw 28% and Wolves 43%, a blend of our model and the consensus of 22 bookmakers. The most likely scores are 1:1 (13%), 0:1 (9%) and 1:2 (9%). Expected goals are 1.19 for Wrexham and 1.48 for Wolves. Over 2.5 goals is 50% and both teams scoring is 55%.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:29 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written before kick-off and not edited after the match.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Wolves (45%); expected goals Wrexham 1.05 – 1.46 Wolves.
- 2.51 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 46%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (28%).
- Last five: Wrexham WLLWL (2 wins), Wolves WWWDW (4 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the last margin-free consensus before kick-off of 22 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Wrexham
- 1.05
- Expected goals · Wolves
- 1.46
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 22% / 43% / 34%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Wrexham | Draw | Wolves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.7% | 2.3% | 97.0% |
| Home -2 | 3.0% | 7.3% | 89.7% |
| Home -1 | 10.3% | 15.9% | 73.8% |
| Home +1≈ | 54.6% | 22.5% | 22.9% |
| Home +2 | 77.1% | 14.0% | 8.9% |
| Home +3 | 91.1% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:07.5%
- 2:04.5%
- 2:16.6%
- 3:01.6%
- 3:12.3%
- 3:21.7%
- 4:00.4%
- 4:10.6%
- 4:20.4%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.4%
- 0:09.2%
- 1:113.5%
- 2:24.8%
- 3:30.8%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:110.8%
- 0:28.6%
- 1:29.1%
- 0:34.2%
- 1:34.4%
- 2:32.3%
- 0:41.5%
- 1:41.6%
- 2:40.9%
- 0:50.4%
- 1:50.5%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72.6% | 46.0% | 24.5% | 11.1% |
| Under | 27.4% | 54.0% | 75.5% | 88.9% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 29.3%
- Over, even
- 16.7%
- Under, odd
- 18.2%
- Under, even
- 35.8%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 51.1%
- Both teams to score: No
- 48.9%
- Clean-sheet probability · Wrexham
- 23.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · Wolves
- 34.9%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 34.9% | 36.7% | 19.4% | 9.0% |
| Wolves | 23.2% | 33.9% | 24.8% | 18.1% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 14.9% | H/D 5.3% | H/A 2.2% |
| Draw | D/H 9.9% | D/D 17.8% | D/A 15.6% |
| Away | A/H 1.5% | A/D 5.3% | A/A 27.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Wolves arrive as the form side, unbeaten in five and able to go top, while Wrexham face them with a threadbare forward line after Sam Smith's season-ending knee injury added to the absences of Windass, Broadhead and probably O'Hare. Both teams are playing their third match in a week and Wolves will rotate, so we only nudge slightly towards the visitors from the bookmaker consensus. A low-scoring game is marginally more likely given Wrexham's lack of attacking options.
- Wrexham · Striker Sam Smith is ruled out for the rest of the season with a cruciate ligament injury, and Parkinson says he will be out for about nine months. (major · hayters.com)
- Wrexham · Josh Windass (ankle) and Nathan Broadhead (thigh) are still out, which leaves Wrexham short of forwards. Kieffer Moore is expected to lead the line, with Bailey Cadamarteri as cover. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Wrexham · Callum O'Hare (ankle) has missed the last two games and is still not expected to feature. Liberato Cacace (calf) is out and Seb Revan (hamstring) is listed as injured. (moderate · sports.yahoo.com)
- Wrexham · Wrexham play their second game in 3 days after beating league leaders Middlesbrough 2-0 on Wednesday. Squad depth is stretched, and Max Cleworth and George Thomason have only recently returned from injury. (moderate · racingpost.com)
- Wrexham · Wrexham are 16th, 7 points clear of the relegation zone and 8 points off the play-offs. They have won 3 of their 4 league wins this season at home. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Wolves · Midfielder Jordan James is out with a hamstring injury and missed the win at Bristol City. Wolves hope to have him back after the international break. (moderate · expressandstar.com)
- Wolves · Raul Jimenez (knee) and Boubacar Traore remain sidelined, and Bertrand Traore is listed as out or doubtful depending on the source. Another outlet reports Boubacar and Bertrand Traore and Nasser Djiga back in training, so those reports conf (moderate · racingpost.com)
- Wolves · Defender Yerson Mosquera returned to training on Friday after illness and will be assessed before the match. (minor · dave.sport)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Wrexham
One of the oldest clubs in the world, Welsh side Wrexham have been owned by Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds since 2021 and returned to the Football League in 2023.
- City
- Wrexham, Wales
- Stadium
- Racecourse Ground
- Founded
- 1864
- Head coach
- Phil Parkinson
Wolves
Nicknamed "The Old Gold", Wolves are a historic English club who are playing in the 2026–27 EFL Championship under Portuguese head coach César Peixoto, with promotion back to the Premier League as their stated aim.
- City
- Wolverhampton, England
- Stadium
- Molineux Stadium
- Founded
- 1877
- Head coach
- César Peixoto
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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