EFL Championship · Matchday 15
West Brom vs Millwall prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives West Brom a 48% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 26% for Millwall; the single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) with 2.70 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- West Brom / Draw
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Millwall
- 52%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 23%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 29%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 51%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
West Brom arrive unbeaten in their last five (three wins, two draws), but captain George Campbell is out at centre-back, and Collyer, Johnston and Galves are also missing. Millwall have won only once in their last five and are patched up at right-back. Both sides have had four days of rest. The last four meetings produced two 0-0 draws, a 1-1 and a 3-0 Millwall win.
The probabilities make West Brom the favourites at 46%, with the draw at 27% and a Millwall win at 27%. Expected goals are 1.61–1.19. The most likely scores are 1:1 (13%), 2:1 (9%) and 1:0 (9%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 53% and both teams scoring at 57%, which points to a fairly open game.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:38 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour West Brom (48%); expected goals West Brom 1.59 – 1.11 Millwall.
- 2.70 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 51%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (29%).
- Last five: West Brom DWDWW (3 wins), Millwall LWLDL (1 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: West Brom 0 wins, 5 draws, Millwall 1 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
The match has kicked off; probabilities keep the last pre-match blend.
- Expected goals · West Brom
- 1.59
- Expected goals · Millwall
- 1.11
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 36% / 41% / 22%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | West Brom | Draw | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.5% | 6.9% | 89.6% |
| Home -2 | 10.4% | 14.8% | 74.8% |
| Home -1≈ | 25.2% | 22.4% | 52.4% |
| Home +1 | 74.5% | 15.3% | 10.2% |
| Home +2 | 89.8% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
| Home +3 | 96.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.7%
- 2:08.5%
- 2:19.4%
- 3:04.5%
- 3:15.0%
- 3:22.8%
- 4:01.8%
- 4:12.0%
- 4:21.1%
- 5:00.6%
- 5:10.6%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.2%
- 0:07.7%
- 1:112.8%
- 2:25.2%
- 3:31.0%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:16.5%
- 0:24.1%
- 1:26.6%
- 0:31.5%
- 1:32.4%
- 2:31.9%
- 0:40.4%
- 1:40.7%
- 2:40.5%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76.1% | 50.6% | 28.6% | 13.7% |
| Under | 23.9% | 49.4% | 71.4% | 86.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 31.6%
- Over, even
- 19.0%
- Under, odd
- 16.2%
- Under, even
- 33.2%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 54.3%
- Both teams to score: No
- 45.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · West Brom
- 33.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Millwall
- 20.4%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | 20.4% | 32.4% | 25.8% | 21.4% |
| Millwall | 33.0% | 36.6% | 20.3% | 10.1% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 29.4% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 1.6% |
| Draw | D/H 15.7% | D/D 16.2% | D/A 9.4% |
| Away | A/H 2.5% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 14.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Team news & line-ups
West Brom
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-4-2 · Coach: J. Morrison
- 1 M. O’Leary
- 18 B. Pereira
- 2 C. Mepham
- 3 N. Phillips
- 4 C. Styles
- 20 R. Nzingoula
- 8 J. Molumby
- 17 O. Diakité
- 21 I. Price
- 19 A. Heggebø
- 11 J. Morgan
Millwall
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: A. Neil
- 15 M. Crocombe
- 2 J. Osei-Tutu
- 6 C. Taylor
- 5 J. Cooper
- 3 Zak Norton Sturge
- 14 Jenson Metcalfe
- 49 D. Mazou-Sacko
- 10 C. Neghli
- 25 L. Cundle
- 22 K. Lisbie
- 19 J. Coburn
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
West Brom go into this as clear favourites on the back of a five-game unbeaten run, but losing captain George Campbell at centre-back slightly weakens a side already missing Collyer, Johnston and Galves. Millwall arrive in poor form and patched up at right-back, so we stay close to the market with only a marginal shade away from the hosts. With both defences depleted and Millwall's recent games producing goals, a lively, open contest looks likely.
- West Brom · Captain and centre-back George Campbell is expected to miss the match with a groin injury picked up against Southampton. (moderate · southwarknews.co.uk)
- West Brom · Toby Collyer (hamstring) is out for about another month, Mikey Johnston (ankle) is out indefinitely, and Nolan Galves (ACL) is out for the season. (moderate · southwarknews.co.uk)
- West Brom · West Brom are sixth and unbeaten in five league games, with a top-six place to defend before the international break. (minor · onefootball.com)
- Millwall · Right-backs Tristan Crama (ankle) and Ryan Leonard (knee, out for about a month) are both injured, which leaves Millwall short at right-back. (major · southwarknews.co.uk)
- Millwall · Millwall are also without Casper De Norre, Mathis Servais, Filip Marschall and goalkeeper Lukas Jensen. (moderate · southwarknews.co.uk)
- Millwall · Zak Sturge came off at half-time against Birmingham with a stiff back, so his fitness is a minor doubt. (minor · southwarknews.co.uk)
- Millwall · Millwall are 13th and have won only two of their last 10 games in all competitions, following a 3-0 loss at Birmingham. (minor · birminghamworld.uk)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
West Brom
Nicknamed the Baggies, West Brom are a Black Country club and former Premier League side who compete in the EFL Championship.
- City
- West Bromwich, England
- Stadium
- The Hawthorns
- Founded
- 1878
- Head coach
- James Morrison
Millwall
A South London club nicknamed the Lions, known for a tough, physical, well-organised style; they finished 3rd in the 2025–26 Championship and reached the play-offs.
- City
- London, England
- Stadium
- The Den
- Founded
- 1885
- Head coach
- Alex Neil
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
West Brom
- DSouthampton1-1 · 11-03
- W@ West Ham United3-1 · 10-31
- D@ Preston North End1-1 · 10-24
- WBlackburn Rovers3-2 · 10-17
- W@ Wrexham2-1 · 10-13
Millwall
- L@ Birmingham City0-3 · 11-03
- WDerby County4-1 · 10-31
- L@ Portsmouth1-2 · 10-24
- DLincoln City2-2 · 10-17
- LSwansea City0-1 · 10-13
West Brom 4 days rest · Millwall 4 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-04-10West Brom 0-0 MillwallEFL Championship
- 2025-10-04Millwall 3-0 West BromEFL Championship
- 2025-02-15Millwall 1-1 West BromEFL Championship
- 2024-10-05West Brom 0-0 MillwallEFL Championship
- 2024-03-29Millwall 1-1 West BromEFL Championship
- 2023-09-23West Brom 0-0 MillwallEFL Championship
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