La Liga Β· Matchday 12
Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Valencia a 9% chance of winning, 15% for a draw and 76% for Real Madrid; the single most likely score is 0:2 (12%) with 3.36 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)
- Real Madrid
- 76%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +2
- Valencia
- 45%
- Correct score
- 0:2 / 0:3
- 22%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 42%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 54%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 65%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Valencia host Real Madrid in La Liga Matchday 12, with both sides on six days' rest. Valencia have yet to win at home this season, though they recently won 1-0 at Elche and Sadiq is back. Real Madrid have won four of their last five, including 2-1 at Barcelona, but are reported to be without Vinicius, Rodrygo, Mendy and Asencio. They won the last two meetings, 2-0 and 4-0.
The published probabilities make Real Madrid clear favourites: 76% for an away win, 15% for a draw and 10% for a Valencia win. Expected goals are 0.80β2.58, with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 51%. The likeliest scores are 0:2 (11%), 0:3 (10%) and 1:2 (9%). The figures blend our model with the consensus of 21 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 11:05 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Real Madrid (76%); expected goals Valencia 0.77 β 2.59 Real Madrid.
- Goals look likely: 3.36 expected in total, 65% for over 2.5 and 50% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 0:2 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (54%).
- Last five: Valencia WLDDL (1 wins), Real Madrid WWWWL (4 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Valencia 1 wins, 1 draws, Real Madrid 4 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 21 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Valencia
- 0.77
- Expected goals Β· Real Madrid
- 2.59
- Most likely score
- 0:2 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 11% / 32% / 57%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Valencia | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 99.5% |
| Home -2 | 0.5% | 1.9% | 97.6% |
| Home -1 | 2.4% | 6.4% | 91.2% |
| Home +1 | 23.6% | 21.5% | 54.9% |
| Home +2β | 45.1% | 21.6% | 33.3% |
| Home +3 | 66.7% | 16.2% | 17.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home +2
Correct score
- 1:02.6%
- 2:01.0%
- 2:12.7%
- 3:00.3%
- 3:10.7%
- 3:20.9%
- 4:00.1%
- 4:10.1%
- 4:20.2%
- 5:00.0%
- 5:10.0%
- 5:20.0%
- Other home win0.2%
- 0:03.5%
- 1:17.0%
- 2:23.5%
- 3:30.8%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:18.9%
- 0:211.6%
- 1:29.0%
- 0:310.0%
- 1:37.7%
- 2:33.0%
- 0:46.5%
- 1:45.0%
- 2:41.9%
- 0:53.4%
- 1:52.6%
- 2:51.0%
- Other away win5.6%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 84.9% | 65.3% | 43.3% | 24.9% |
| Under | 15.1% | 34.7% | 56.7% | 75.1% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 38.3%
- Over, even
- 27.0%
- Under, odd
- 11.6%
- Under, even
- 23.1%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 49.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 50.2%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Valencia
- 7.5%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Real Madrid
- 46.2%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 46.2% | 35.7% | 13.8% | 4.3% |
| Real Madrid | 7.5% | 19.4% | 25.2% | 47.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 4.7% | H/D 3.1% | H/A 3.2% |
| Draw | D/H 3.4% | D/D 8.6% | D/A 19.6% |
| Away | A/H 0.7% | A/D 3.1% | A/A 53.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Valencia 8.8% Β· Draw 14.8% Β· Real Madrid 76.4% Β· 2.5+ 65.3%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 12.11 | 6.57 | 1.25 | 3.25: 1.99 / 1.89 | +1.75: 1.93 / 1.98 |
| 1xBet | 11.60 | 6.45 | 1.29 | 3.5: 2.21 / 1.78 | +1.5: 2.19 / 1.79 |
| BetOnline.ag | 11.50 | 6.65 | 1.25 | 3: 1.74 / 2.17 | +1.5: 2.17 / 1.75 |
| Coolbet | 11.00 | 6.30 | 1.28 | 3: 1.78 / 2.14 | +1.5: 2.10 / 1.81 |
| Marathon Bet | 11.50 | 6.35 | 1.27 | 3.5: 2.14 / 1.73 | +1.5: 2.11 / 1.73 |
| Betsson | 10.50 | 6.10 | 1.25 | 2.5: 1.46 / 2.76 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 10.00 | 6.00 | 1.27 | 3.5: 2.11 / 1.62 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 9.50 | 6.10 | 1.23 | 3.5: 2.07 / 1.72 | β |
| Matchbook | 12.50 | 7.00 | 1.28 | β | +1.75: 1.91 / 1.97 |
| Nordic Bet | 10.50 | 6.10 | 1.25 | 2.5: 1.45 / 2.72 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 9.00 | 6.00 | 1.21 | 3.5: 1.95 / 1.63 | β |
| Tipico | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.22 | 3.5: 2.05 / 1.70 | β |
| Unibet (NL) | 11.00 | 7.00 | 1.25 | 3.5: 2.07 / 1.72 | β |
| Unibet (SE) | 11.00 | 7.00 | 1.27 | 3.5: 2.10 / 1.74 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 21 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Real Madrid arrive on seven straight wins and remain heavy favourites at Mestalla despite missing Vinicius, Rodrygo, Mendy and Asencio β absences the market has had days to absorb. Valencia have yet to win at home this season and score rarely, though Sadiq's return and the first win under Aguirre offer a little resistance. We stay in line with the bookmaker consensus: roughly three-in-four for an away win and a lean towards over 2.5 goals.
- Real Madrid Β· Vinicius Junior misses the game as he serves the last match of a four-game domestic suspension. (major Β· vavel.com)
- Real Madrid Β· Rodrygo (knee), Raul Asencio (leg) and Ferland Mendy (hip) are all out through injury. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Real Madrid Β· Tchouameni and Guler return to Mourinho's squad after being rested for the Champions League win at AEK Athens and are expected to start. (moderate Β· vavel.com)
- Real Madrid Β· Real Madrid are unbeaten since 21 September and have won seven in a row. A win would take them level with leaders Barcelona, pending the Atletico v Barcelona game. (moderate Β· diariodealicante.net)
- Valencia Β· Sergi Canos, Diego Lopez and David Otorbi (hamstring, expected back in December) are out injured. Kayne van Oevelen is also reported absent. (moderate Β· 7televalencia.com)
- Valencia Β· Jose Manuel Copete (knee) is a doubt for the squad. (minor Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Valencia Β· Striker Sadiq is back from a hamstring injury and is expected to start. Harvey Elliott is available again after suspension. (moderate Β· aljazeera.com)
- Valencia Β· Valencia are 19th on 9 points, one point from safety. They are under new manager Javier Aguirre, who won for the first time in his fourth game (1-0 at Elche). They have no home league win this season and have scored only 8 league goals. (moderate Β· diariodealicante.net)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Valencia
Nicknamed Los Che, Valencia is a historic La Liga club from Spain's Mediterranean coast. They finished 9th in 2025β26 and are now coached by Javier Aguirre, who replaced Carlos CorberΓ‘n.
- City
- Valencia, Spain
- Stadium
- Mestalla
- Founded
- 1919
- Head coach
- Javier Aguirre
Real Madrid
Spain's most decorated club and a record European champion, Real Madrid play in white and compete in La Liga, where JosΓ© Mourinho returned as head coach in 2026 and the team has been on a strong run of results.
- City
- Madrid, Spain
- Stadium
- Santiago BernabΓ©u
- Founded
- 1902
- Head coach
- JosΓ© Mourinho
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Valencia
- W@ Elche1-0 Β· 11-01
- LVillarreal1-2 Β· 10-24
- DAthletic Club0-0 Β· 10-17
- D@ Racing Santander2-2 Β· 10-11
- LReal Sociedad2-3 Β· 09-20
Real Madrid
- W@ Racing Santander3-0 Β· 11-01
- W@ Barcelona2-1 Β· 10-25
- WSevilla4-1 Β· 10-18
- WVillarreal1-0 Β· 10-10
- L@ AtlΓ©tico Madrid1-2 Β· 09-20
Valencia 6 days rest Β· Real Madrid 6 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-02-08Valencia 0-2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 2025-11-01Real Madrid 4-0 ValenciaLa Liga
- 2025-04-05Real Madrid 1-2 ValenciaLa Liga
- 2025-01-03Valencia 1-2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 2024-03-02Valencia 2-2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 2023-11-11Real Madrid 5-1 ValenciaLa Liga
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: La Liga β