Bundesliga · Matchday 9
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives RB Leipzig a 67% chance of winning, 17% for a draw and 15% for FC Augsburg; the single most likely score is 2:1 (9%) with 4.06 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)
- RB Leipzig
- 67%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- RB Leipzig
- 47%
- Correct score
- 2:1 / 3:1
- 16%
- Total goals
- 3 / 4 goals
- 39%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 45%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 77%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
RB Leipzig host FC Augsburg in Bundesliga round 9, with both sides on seven days' rest. Leipzig have won three of their last five, including 4-0 and 6-0 home wins, although they also lost 1-6 at Bayern Munich and 0-2 at Leverkusen. Nkunku and Baumgartner are reported back, and Leipzig's other absences are peripheral. Augsburg have two draws and three defeats in their last five, have conceded twelve goals in that run, and are reported to be without three centre-backs. Leipzig have not lost any of the last four meetings (three wins, one draw).
The published probabilities make Leipzig clear favourites at 65%, with the draw at 18% and an Augsburg win at 17%. Expected goals are 2.61–1.31, with over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams scoring at 68%. The most likely scorelines are 2:1 (9%), 3:1 (8%) and 1:1 (7%). The figures blend our model with the consensus of 23 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:33 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour RB Leipzig (67%); expected goals RB Leipzig 2.75 – 1.31 FC Augsburg.
- Goals look likely: 4.06 expected in total, 77% for over 2.5 and 69% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:1 (9%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (45%).
- Last five: RB Leipzig WWLWL (3 wins), FC Augsburg LDLDL (0 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: RB Leipzig 4 wins, 2 draws, FC Augsburg 0 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
The match has kicked off; probabilities keep the last pre-match blend.
- Expected goals · RB Leipzig
- 2.75
- Expected goals · FC Augsburg
- 1.31
- Most likely score
- 2:1 (9%)
- Half-time result
- 51% / 32% / 18%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | RB Leipzig | Draw | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 14.8% | 13.7% | 71.5% |
| Home -2 | 28.5% | 18.9% | 52.6% |
| Home -1≈ | 47.4% | 19.8% | 32.8% |
| Home +1 | 84.5% | 9.2% | 6.3% |
| Home +2 | 93.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Home +3 | 98.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:04.3%
- 2:06.5%
- 2:18.6%
- 3:06.0%
- 3:17.8%
- 3:25.1%
- 4:04.1%
- 4:15.4%
- 4:23.5%
- 5:02.3%
- 5:13.0%
- 5:21.9%
- Other home win8.7%
- 0:02.2%
- 1:16.7%
- 2:25.6%
- 3:32.2%
- Other draw0.6%
- 0:11.8%
- 0:21.5%
- 1:24.1%
- 0:30.6%
- 1:31.8%
- 2:32.4%
- 0:40.2%
- 1:40.6%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win1.3%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 91.7% | 77.0% | 57.8% | 38.2% |
| Under | 8.3% | 23.0% | 42.2% | 61.8% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 43.0%
- Over, even
- 34.1%
- Under, odd
- 6.0%
- Under, even
- 16.9%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 68.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 31.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · RB Leipzig
- 27.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · FC Augsburg
- 6.4%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 6.4% | 17.6% | 24.2% | 51.8% |
| FC Augsburg | 27.0% | 35.4% | 23.1% | 14.5% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 44.8% | H/D 4.5% | H/A 1.6% |
| Draw | D/H 17.8% | D/D 8.4% | D/A 5.4% |
| Away | A/H 4.6% | A/D 4.5% | A/A 8.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Team news & line-ups
RB Leipzig
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-5-1 · Coach: M. Demichelis
- 26 M. Vandevoordt
- 17 R. Baku
- 4 W. Orbán
- 23 C. Lukeba
- 22 D. Raum
- 27 T. Gomis
- 10 B. Gruda
- 21 N. El Aynaoui
- 6 E. Banzuzi
- 28 C. Nkunku
- 40 Rômulo
FC Augsburg
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Coach: M. Baum
- 1 F. Dahmen
- 14 Y. Keitel
- 6 J. Gouweleeuw
- 5 C. Matsima
- 19 R. Fellhauer
- 4 H. Massengo
- 32 F. Rieder
- 16 Hennes Behrens
- 30 A. Kade
- 21 A. Ibrahimović
- 9 Rodrigo Ribeiro
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Leipzig are strong favourites at home against an Augsburg side arriving with a defensive crisis: three centre-backs are out and the team has shipped twelve goals in five games. Leipzig's own absences are peripheral, and with Nkunku and Baumgartner back the hosts should create plenty. We nudge slightly towards a home win and a high-scoring game, as most of the Augsburg news appears already reflected in the odds.
- FC Augsburg · Augsburg are without three centre-backs: Juma Bah is suspended after a red card (two-match ban), Noahkai Banks has a knee ligament injury and Calvin Brackelmann has a head injury. (major · augsburg-journal.de)
- FC Augsburg · Striker Steve Mounié is unavailable and still in build-up training. (minor · augsburg-journal.de)
- FC Augsburg · Alexis Claude-Maurice is back from injury and Mert Kömür is pushing for a place, but both are more likely to be substitutes than starters. (minor · augsburg-journal.de)
- FC Augsburg · Augsburg are 15th with 9 points after losing 1-2 to Freiburg, and have lost 3 of their last 5. (moderate · sports.yahoo.com)
- RB Leipzig · Leipzig are without Marc Guiu (thigh muscle injury) and Assan Ouédraogo (shoulder injury). (minor · fussballnationalmannschaft.net)
- RB Leipzig · Max Finkgräfe (thigh problems) is a doubt. Comunio also lists Konaté (adductor) as slightly injured. (minor · magazin.comunio.de)
- RB Leipzig · Leipzig are 4th with 15 points, level with leaders Werder Bremen. Nkunku and Baumgartner are expected to return to the starting XI. (moderate · fussballnationalmannschaft.net)
- RB Leipzig · Leipzig have won 3 of their last 4 matches, including 6-0 and 4-0 home wins. (minor · sports.yahoo.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
RB Leipzig
A Red Bull-backed club founded in 2009 that rose quickly from the fifth tier to the Bundesliga and Champions League, known for intense pressing and fast vertical football; they sit around 7th in the 2026–27 Bundesliga.
- City
- Leipzig, Germany
- Stadium
- Red Bull Arena
- Founded
- 2009
- Head coach
- Martín Demichelis
FC Augsburg
A Bavarian Swabian club that has played in the Bundesliga since 2011, Augsburg finished 9th in 2025–26 and is coached by Manuel Baum, whose contract runs to 2028.
- City
- Augsburg, Germany
- Stadium
- WWK Arena
- Founded
- 1907
- Head coach
- Manuel Baum
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
RB Leipzig
- W@ Schalke 042-0 · 10-31
- WSV Elversberg4-0 · 10-24
- L@ Bayern Munich1-6 · 10-17
- WEintracht Frankfurt6-0 · 10-10
- L@ Bayer Leverkusen0-2 · 09-20
FC Augsburg
- LSC Freiburg1-2 · 10-31
- DUnion Berlin1-1 · 10-24
- L@ SV Elversberg3-4 · 10-17
- DBayern Munich2-2 · 10-10
- L@ Werder Bremen2-3 · 09-19
RB Leipzig 7 days rest · FC Augsburg 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-03-07RB Leipzig 2-1 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 2025-10-25FC Augsburg 0-6 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 2025-02-14FC Augsburg 0-0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 2024-09-28RB Leipzig 4-0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 2024-02-10FC Augsburg 2-2 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 2023-09-16RB Leipzig 3-0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
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