EFL Championship · Matchday 15
QPR vs Lincoln City prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives QPR a 58% chance of winning, 24% for a draw and 19% for Lincoln City; the single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) with 2.80 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- QPR
- 58%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Lincoln City
- 42%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 22%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 37%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 53%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
QPR host Lincoln City at Loftus Road in Round 15 of the Championship, with both sides on four days' rest. The hosts' recent form is mixed, with two wins, a draw and two defeats in their last five. They have been free-scoring at home, though, beating Swansea City 5-0 and Derby County 4-1. Lincoln have won only one of their last five, a 4-1 victory over Burnley, and that run also includes a 0-6 loss to West Ham United. They are without suspended striker Ben House and loanee Mason Melia.
Our published probabilities blend our model with the consensus of 22 bookmakers. They make QPR favourites at 57%, with the draw at 24% and a Lincoln win at 20%. Expected goals are 1.85–1.00, and the most likely scores are 1:1 (11%), 1:0 (10%) and 2:1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 54%, and both teams scoring is also at 54%.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:37 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour QPR (58%); expected goals QPR 1.85 – 0.96 Lincoln City.
- 2.80 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 53%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (37%).
- Last five: QPR DLWLW (2 wins), Lincoln City LLWDL (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
The match has kicked off; probabilities keep the last pre-match blend.
- Expected goals · QPR
- 1.85
- Expected goals · Lincoln City
- 0.96
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 43% / 39% / 18%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | QPR | Draw | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 6.2% | 9.7% | 84.1% |
| Home -2 | 15.9% | 18.0% | 66.1% |
| Home -1≈ | 33.9% | 23.9% | 42.2% |
| Home +1 | 81.4% | 12.1% | 6.5% |
| Home +2 | 93.5% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| Home +3 | 98.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:010.6%
- 2:010.3%
- 2:19.9%
- 3:06.4%
- 3:16.1%
- 3:22.9%
- 4:02.9%
- 4:12.8%
- 4:21.3%
- 5:01.1%
- 5:11.0%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win1.8%
- 0:06.6%
- 1:111.2%
- 2:24.7%
- 3:30.9%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:15.2%
- 0:22.8%
- 1:25.1%
- 0:30.9%
- 1:31.6%
- 2:31.5%
- 0:40.2%
- 1:40.4%
- 2:40.4%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.3%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.5% | 53.2% | 30.9% | 15.3% |
| Under | 22.5% | 46.8% | 69.1% | 84.7% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.8%
- Over, even
- 20.3%
- Under, odd
- 15.9%
- Under, even
- 31.0%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 52.4%
- Both teams to score: No
- 47.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · QPR
- 38.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · Lincoln City
- 15.8%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | 15.8% | 29.1% | 26.9% | 28.2% |
| Lincoln City | 38.5% | 36.8% | 17.6% | 7.2% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 37.1% | H/D 4.7% | H/A 1.2% |
| Draw | D/H 17.9% | D/D 14.2% | D/A 7.0% |
| Away | A/H 2.8% | A/D 4.7% | A/A 10.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Team news & line-ups
QPR
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-4-2 · Coach: Julien Stéphan
- 1 P. Charles
- 2 K. Adamson
- 3 J. Dunne
- 5 R. Edwards
- 12 B. Kemper
- 20 H. Vale
- 40 J. Varane
- 18 G. Kamara
- 11 P. Smyth
- 22 R. Kone
- 17 K. Poku
Lincoln City
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Coach: T. Shaw
- 1 G. Wickens
- 33 D. Oyegoke
- 25 D. Elerewe
- 15 S. Bradley
- 7 R. Hackett
- 26 Y. Konak
- 14 C. McGrandles
- 3 A. Reach
- 34 F. Draper
- 16 D. Jefferies
- 11 M. Ladefoged
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
(Claude's experimental view; does not change this page) QPR are clear favourites at Loftus Road, where they have been free-scoring this season, against a Lincoln side on a poor run and missing suspended striker Ben House plus loanee Mason Melia. Most of the team news is already reflected in the market, so we lean only marginally further towards the hosts. Goals look likely given both teams' recent results.
- Lincoln City · Striker Ben House is suspended for this match. (major · thelinc.co.uk)
- Lincoln City · Mikkel Ladefoged and Ethan Wheatley are hopeful of being fit after positive updates, but neither is confirmed. (moderate · staceywest.net)
- Lincoln City · Mason Melia (Tottenham loanee) is unlikely to feature before the international break because his recovery is taking longer than hoped. (moderate · staceywest.net)
- Lincoln City · Conor McGrandles could return after missing two games with a knee injury, though OneFootball still lists him as out, so his status is unclear. (minor · thelinc.co.uk)
- Lincoln City · Lincoln have lost five of their last seven league games, including consecutive defeats to Birmingham and Watford, and sit 19th in their first Championship season since 1960-61. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- QPR · Forward Alfie Jones is out until the new year with a hamstring injury picked up against Southampton. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- QPR · Richard Kone, who was substituted against Burnley, is reported to be in line to be available, though this comes from a secondary outlet. (moderate · footballleagueworld.co.uk)
- QPR · Nicolas Madsen and Rumarn Burrell remain sidelined. (moderate · the72.co.uk)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
QPR
A west London club known as the Hoops or the R's, QPR play in the EFL Championship and finished 15th in 2025–26.
- City
- London, England
- Stadium
- Loftus Road
- Founded
- 1882
- Head coach
- Julien Stéphan
Lincoln City
Nicknamed "the Imps", Lincoln City won the 2025–26 League One title with 103 points, earning a return to the second tier after a 65-year absence.
- City
- Lincoln, England
- Stadium
- Sincil Bank
- Founded
- 1884
- Head coach
- Chris Cohen & Tom Shaw (joint head coaches)
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
QPR
- DBurnley1-1 · 11-03
- L@ Southampton1-4 · 10-31
- WSwansea City5-0 · 10-24
- L@ Birmingham City0-3 · 10-17
- WDerby County4-1 · 10-14
Lincoln City
- L@ Watford0-1 · 11-03
- LBirmingham City1-3 · 10-31
- WBurnley4-1 · 10-24
- D@ Millwall2-2 · 10-17
- LWest Ham United0-6 · 10-14
QPR 4 days rest · Lincoln City 4 days rest
Head to head
No recent meetings in the dataset.
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