EFL Championship · Matchday 15
Preston North End vs Southampton prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Preston North End a 18% chance of winning, 22% for a draw and 60% for Southampton; the single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) with 3.04 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Southampton
- 60%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1
- Preston North End
- 40%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 20%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 45%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 39%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 59%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Preston North End are bottom of the Championship and winless since early September. Their last five brought one draw and four defeats, with 14 goals conceded, and Kenny and Leroy are out on top of a long injury list. Southampton are unbeaten in six and took 3-1 at Preston in May. Scienza is likely to return, while Larin is doubtful. Both sides have had four days of rest.
The published probabilities make Southampton clear favourites at 58%, with a draw at 22% and a Preston win at 20%. The likeliest scores are 1:1 (10%), 1:2 (10%) and 0:2 (9%). Expected goals are 1.10–2.02, with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 58%.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:37 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Southampton (60%); expected goals Preston North End 1.02 – 2.02 Southampton.
- Goals look likely: 3.04 expected in total, 59% for over 2.5 and 56% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (39%).
- Last five: Preston North End LLDLL (0 wins), Southampton DWWDW (3 wins).
- Last 4 meetings in the dataset: Preston North End 1 wins, 1 draws, Southampton 2 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
The match has kicked off; probabilities keep the last pre-match blend.
- Expected goals · Preston North End
- 1.02
- Expected goals · Southampton
- 2.02
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 18% / 37% / 45%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Preston North End | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.4% | 1.4% | 98.2% |
| Home -2 | 1.8% | 4.7% | 93.5% |
| Home -1 | 6.5% | 11.3% | 82.2% |
| Home +1≈ | 40.1% | 23.0% | 36.9% |
| Home +2 | 63.1% | 18.5% | 18.4% |
| Home +3 | 81.6% | 10.7% | 7.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:04.2%
- 2:02.5%
- 2:15.0%
- 3:00.8%
- 3:11.7%
- 3:21.7%
- 4:00.2%
- 4:10.4%
- 4:20.4%
- 5:00.0%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.5%
- 0:05.4%
- 1:110.5%
- 2:25.1%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:19.0%
- 0:29.8%
- 1:210.0%
- 0:36.6%
- 1:36.7%
- 2:33.4%
- 0:43.3%
- 1:43.4%
- 2:41.7%
- 0:51.3%
- 1:51.4%
- 2:50.7%
- Other away win2.6%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 81.3% | 58.6% | 36.2% | 19.2% |
| Under | 18.7% | 41.4% | 63.8% | 80.8% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 35.4%
- Over, even
- 23.2%
- Under, odd
- 13.2%
- Under, even
- 28.2%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.1%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.9%
- Clean-sheet probability · Preston North End
- 13.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Southampton
- 36.1%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston North End | 36.1% | 36.8% | 18.8% | 8.4% |
| Southampton | 13.3% | 26.8% | 27.1% | 32.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 10.0% | H/D 4.8% | H/A 3.1% |
| Draw | D/H 6.6% | D/D 12.8% | D/A 17.7% |
| Away | A/H 1.3% | A/D 4.8% | A/A 39.1% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Team news & line-ups
Preston North End
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 3-4-3 · Coach: G. Alexander
- 21 L. Nicholls
- 24 O. Offiah
- 6 L. Lindsay
- 16 A. Hughes
- 17 S. Mills
- 23 A. Moran
- 15 J. Thompson
- 3 A. Vukčević
- 7 A. Devine
- 10 C. Lang
- 11 T. Small
Southampton
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: Tonda Eckert
- 1 Daniel Peretz
- 14 J. Bree
- 5 J. Stephens
- 13 K. Schlotterbeck
- 34 Welington
- 4 F. Downes
- 30 J. Ward-Prowse
- 27 K. Matsuki
- 10 F. Azaz
- 7 Léo Scienza
- 11 L. Dobbin
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Southampton arrive unbeaten in six against a Preston side that is bottom, winless since early September and now missing Kenny and Leroy on top of a lengthy injury list. The market's strong away lean (around 58%) looks justified, and we nudge only slightly further towards Southampton given Scienza's likely return, while Larin's doubtful status is already well known. With Preston's porous defence and Southampton's open recent matches, a game with three or more goals is marginally more likely than not.
- Preston North End · Johnny Kenny is out after a hamstring injury suffered early in the 2-3 loss to Sheffield United. (moderate · lep.co.uk)
- Preston North End · Midfielder Leo Leroy is suspended for one match after picking up his fifth booking of the season. (moderate · lep.co.uk)
- Preston North End · Ali McCann, Harry Clarke, Lewis Gibson and Liam Gibbs remain sidelined through injury. (moderate · lep.co.uk)
- Preston North End · Greg Docherty signed until the end of the season and is eligible to play. Graham Alexander thinks he is fit enough to be involved. (minor · lep.co.uk)
- Preston North End · Caleb Wiley, Callum Lang and Brad Potts could be recalled. (minor · whoscored.com)
- Preston North End · Preston are bottom and nine points from safety. Manager Graham Alexander has lost five of his first six league games in charge, and Preston have not won in the league since 5 September. They have the league's worst defence, with 30 goals co (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Southampton · Leo Scienza missed the West Brom draw late with a pain problem. Manager Tonda Eckert is 'very hopeful' he will play, and he was reportedly seen back in training. (moderate · lep.co.uk)
- Southampton · Top scorer Cyle Larin (8 goals) has missed three games with a hamstring problem and is a doubt. Midfielder Caspar Jander is also a heavy doubt. (major · lep.co.uk)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Preston North End
Historic Lancashire club and a founder member of the Football League, they won the first English league title in 1888–89 and play in the EFL Championship.
- City
- Preston, England
- Stadium
- Deepdale
- Founded
- 1880
- Head coach
- Graham Alexander
Southampton
Nicknamed the Saints, this Hampshire club competes in the EFL Championship and finished fourth in 2025–26 but was expelled from the promotion play-offs.
- City
- Southampton, England
- Stadium
- St Mary's Stadium
- Founded
- 1885
- Head coach
- Tonda Eckert
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Preston North End
- LSheffield United2-3 · 11-03
- L@ Stoke City0-2 · 10-31
- DWest Brom1-1 · 10-24
- L@ Wrexham1-4 · 10-17
- L@ Birmingham City0-4 · 10-13
Southampton
- D@ West Brom1-1 · 11-03
- WQPR4-1 · 10-31
- W@ West Ham United3-2 · 10-24
- DBolton Wanderers0-0 · 10-17
- W@ Norwich City1-0 · 10-14
Preston North End 4 days rest · Southampton 4 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-05-02Preston North End 1-3 SouthamptonEFL Championship
- 2025-11-01Southampton 0-2 Preston North EndEFL Championship
- 2024-04-16Southampton 3-0 Preston North EndEFL Championship
- 2023-10-25Preston North End 2-2 SouthamptonEFL Championship
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