Bundesliga · Matchday 9
Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Mainz 05 a 10% chance of winning, 14% for a draw and 76% for Bayern Munich; the single most likely score is 1:2 (8%) with 4.07 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)
- Bayern Munich
- 76%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +2
- Mainz 05
- 43%
- Correct score
- 1:2 / 1:3
- 16%
- Total goals
- 3 / 4 goals
- 39%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 52%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 77%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Mainz host Bayern on Matchday 9 with eight days of rest, one more than the visitors. Mainz have lost three of their last five, including 1-4 at Elversberg and 3-4 against Leverkusen, and are reportedly without Posch, Mwene and Kohr. Bayern are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws), including a 7-0 win over Union Berlin, but are reportedly missing Díaz, Gnabry and Musiala, and rotation under stand-in coach Danks is possible. Their last meeting ended Mainz 3-4 Bayern.
The published probabilities make Bayern clear favourites at 72%, with the draw at 15% and a Mainz win at 13%. Expected goals are 1.16–2.82. The most likely scores are 1:2 (9%), 1:3 (8%) and 0:2 (7%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 76% and both teams scoring at 65%.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:32 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Bayern Munich (76%); expected goals Mainz 05 1.08 – 2.99 Bayern Munich.
- Goals look likely: 4.07 expected in total, 77% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:2 (8%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (52%).
- Last five: Mainz 05 LLWLW (2 wins), Bayern Munich DWWDW (3 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Mainz 05 1 wins, 1 draws, Bayern Munich 4 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
The match has kicked off; probabilities keep the last pre-match blend.
- Expected goals · Mainz 05
- 1.08
- Expected goals · Bayern Munich
- 2.99
- Most likely score
- 1:2 (8%)
- Half-time result
- 13% / 30% / 57%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Mainz 05 | Draw | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.2% | 0.8% | 99.0% |
| Home -2 | 1.0% | 2.6% | 96.4% |
| Home -1 | 3.6% | 6.8% | 89.6% |
| Home +1 | 24.3% | 19.1% | 56.7% |
| Home +2≈ | 43.3% | 20.0% | 36.7% |
| Home +3 | 63.3% | 16.1% | 20.5% |
Model's balanced line: Home +2
Correct score
- 1:01.7%
- 2:01.0%
- 2:13.0%
- 3:00.4%
- 3:11.1%
- 3:21.6%
- 4:00.1%
- 4:10.3%
- 4:20.4%
- 5:00.0%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.7%
- 0:01.9%
- 1:15.7%
- 2:24.4%
- 3:31.6%
- Other draw0.4%
- 0:15.0%
- 0:27.7%
- 1:28.3%
- 0:37.6%
- 1:38.2%
- 2:34.4%
- 0:45.7%
- 1:46.1%
- 2:43.3%
- 0:53.4%
- 1:53.7%
- 2:52.0%
- Other away win10.3%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 91.4% | 77.1% | 57.9% | 38.4% |
| Under | 8.6% | 22.9% | 42.1% | 61.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 43.0%
- Over, even
- 34.1%
- Under, odd
- 6.7%
- Under, even
- 16.2%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 62.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 37.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · Mainz 05
- 5.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Bayern Munich
- 34.1%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 | 34.1% | 36.7% | 19.8% | 9.5% |
| Bayern Munich | 5.0% | 15.1% | 22.5% | 57.4% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 5.5% | H/D 3.5% | H/A 4.3% |
| Draw | D/H 3.8% | D/D 7.0% | D/A 18.9% |
| Away | A/H 1.0% | A/D 3.5% | A/A 52.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Team news & line-ups
Mainz 05
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 3-5-2 · Coach: U. Fischer
- 27 R. Zentner
- 21 D. da Costa
- 3 F. Gruber
- 48 K. Potulski
- 19 A. Caci
- 7 Lee Jae-Sung
- 6 K. Sano
- 10 N. Amiri
- 30 S. Widmer
- 23 S. Becker
- 11 R. Königsdörffer
Bayern Munich
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Coach: V. Kompany
- 1 M. Neuer
- 27 K. Laimer
- 2 D. Upamecano
- 4 J. Tah
- 44 J. Stanišić
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 45 A. Pavlović
- 17 M. Olise
- 11 N. Brown
- 42 L. Karl
- 9 H. Kane
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Bayern arrive as unbeaten leaders against a Mainz side that has lost four of five and is without Posch, Mwene and Kohr. Bayern's own absentees (Díaz, Gnabry, Musiala) and likely rotation under stand-in coach Danks trim their edge slightly, but the market already reflects this, so we stay close to the consensus at roughly 71% for an away win. With Mainz conceding freely and Bayern scoring at will, a high-scoring game is the most likely outcome.
- Mainz 05 · Stefan Posch is suspended (yellow-red card against Elversberg) and Phillipp Mwene is suspended (yellow-card accumulation). (moderate · bundesliga.com)
- Mainz 05 · Dominik Kohr is out with a syndesmosis injury after surgery; Silas is still in build-up training and Ruoppi has a training deficit. (moderate · magazin.comunio.de)
- Mainz 05 · Mainz have lost four of their last five games, including a 4-1 defeat at Elversberg. They have taken 1 point from 12 at home in the league and have not won at home since March. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Bayern Munich · Luis Díaz (muscle injury), Serge Gnabry (muscle injury), Ismael Saibari (syndesmosis tear) and Bara Ndiaye (appendix surgery) are out. (major · fcbayern.com)
- Bayern Munich · Jamal Musiala is back in team training but will not be in the squad, according to assistant coach Aaron Danks. (moderate · fcbayern.com)
- Bayern Munich · Manuel Neuer is back in training and expected to play. Pavlović's involvement depends on how he reacts physically, and Davies may be rested because of workload. (moderate · bulinews.com)
- Bayern Munich · Head coach Vincent Kompany is still absent while recovering from illness, so assistant Aaron Danks leads the team. (minor · fussballnationalmannschaft.net)
- Bayern Munich · Bayern are league leaders and unbeaten. This is the last match before the international break. They won 2-0 at Atlético in the Champions League this week, after a 2-2 draw with Dortmund. (moderate · fcbayern.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Mainz 05
A Rhineland-Palatinate club known as the 'Nullfünfer' and linked to Mainz's carnival culture, long established as a Bundesliga regular.
- City
- Mainz, Germany
- Stadium
- MEWA Arena
- Founded
- 1905
- Head coach
- Urs Fischer
Bayern Munich
Germany's most successful club and a perennial Bundesliga title contender, Bayern play a proactive, high-pressing attacking game under Vincent Kompany.
- City
- Munich, Germany
- Stadium
- Allianz Arena
- Founded
- 1900
- Head coach
- Vincent Kompany
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Mainz 05
- L@ SV Elversberg1-4 · 10-30
- LWerder Bremen2-3 · 10-24
- W@ Schalke 041-0 · 10-17
- LBayer Leverkusen3-4 · 10-10
- W@ Gladbach4-3 · 09-19
Bayern Munich
- DBorussia Dortmund2-2 · 10-31
- W@ SC Freiburg3-1 · 10-25
- WRB Leipzig6-1 · 10-17
- D@ FC Augsburg2-2 · 10-10
- WUnion Berlin7-0 · 09-18
Mainz 05 8 days rest · Bayern Munich 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-04-25Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern MunichBundesliga
- 2025-12-14Bayern Munich 2-2 Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 2025-04-26Bayern Munich 3-0 Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 2024-12-14Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern MunichBundesliga
- 2024-03-09Bayern Munich 8-1 Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 2023-10-21Mainz 05 1-3 Bayern MunichBundesliga
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