La Liga · Matchday 12
Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruña prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Espanyol a 39% chance of winning, 29% for a draw and 32% for Deportivo La Coruña; the single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) with 2.55 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- Espanyol / Deportivo La Coruña
- 71%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Deportivo La Coruña
- 61%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 0:0
- 23%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 23%
- Over / under 2.5
- Under
- 53%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Espanyol host Deportivo La Coruña in Matchday 12 of La Liga having won only one of their last five (W1 D1 L3), that win being 1-0 at Villarreal. New coach Eder Sarabia is banned from the touchline, and the hosts are without the suspended Roger Hinojo and the injured Urko González. Deportivo beat Osasuna 2-1 last time out and have Aubameyang back, but Ede and Eddahchouri are out. They have had five days' rest to Espanyol's eight.
The published probabilities make Espanyol narrow favourites at 41%, with a draw at 29% and a Deportivo win at 30%. Expected goals are 1.39–1.17, and the likeliest scores are 1:1 (14%), 1:0 (10%) and 0:0 (9%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 47%, and both teams scoring at 53%.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:39 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- Evenly matched: Espanyol 39%, draw 29%, Deportivo La Coruña 32% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.55 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 47%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (23%).
- Last five: Espanyol WLLDL (1 wins), Deportivo La Coruña WLDLD (1 wins).
- Rest gap: Espanyol 8 days, Deportivo La Coruña 5 days (not a model input).
- A 29% draw probability is on the high side — the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
The match has kicked off; probabilities keep the last pre-match blend.
- Expected goals · Espanyol
- 1.35
- Expected goals · Deportivo La Coruña
- 1.21
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 30% / 43% / 26%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Espanyol | Draw | Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.9% | 4.7% | 93.3% |
| Home -2 | 6.7% | 11.8% | 81.6% |
| Home -1≈ | 18.4% | 20.3% | 61.3% |
| Home +1 | 68.1% | 18.0% | 14.0% |
| Home +2 | 86.0% | 9.4% | 4.6% |
| Home +3 | 95.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.1%
- 2:07.1%
- 2:18.5%
- 3:03.2%
- 3:13.8%
- 3:22.3%
- 4:01.1%
- 4:11.3%
- 4:20.8%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.7%
- 0:09.2%
- 1:114.0%
- 2:25.1%
- 3:30.9%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:18.0%
- 0:25.6%
- 1:27.6%
- 0:32.3%
- 1:33.1%
- 2:32.1%
- 0:40.7%
- 1:40.9%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73.7% | 47.0% | 25.4% | 11.6% |
| Under | 26.3% | 53.0% | 74.6% | 88.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 29.8%
- Over, even
- 17.2%
- Under, odd
- 17.1%
- Under, even
- 35.9%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 53.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 46.8%
- Clean-sheet probability · Espanyol
- 30.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Deportivo La Coruña
- 26.0%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 26.0% | 35.0% | 23.6% | 15.4% |
| Deportivo La Coruña | 30.0% | 36.1% | 21.8% | 12.2% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 23.0% | H/D 5.6% | H/A 1.8% |
| Draw | D/H 13.7% | D/D 18.1% | D/A 11.6% |
| Away | A/H 2.1% | A/D 5.6% | A/A 18.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Team news & line-ups
Espanyol
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 5-4-1 · Coach: Eder Sarabia
- 1 Ángel Fortuño
- 24 T. Dolan
- 23 O. El Hilali
- 6 L. Cabrera
- 3 Q. Hartman
- 36 Alejandro Santiago Vargas
- 11 Pere Milla
- 10 Pol Lozano
- 8 Edu Expósito
- 22 Álex Calatrava
- 9 Roberto Fernández
Deportivo La Coruña
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-4-2 · Coach: Antonio Hidalgo
- 13 Leo Román
- 2 Adrià Alti
- 20 J. Giménez
- 15 Miguel Loureiro
- 12 G. Quagliata
- 11 David Mella
- 16 L. Amatucci
- 21 Mario Soriano
- 10 Peke
- 19 Luismi Cruz
- 32 B. Nsongo
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Espanyol host Deportivo under new coach Eder Sarabia, who is banned from the touchline and must cover for the suspended Roger Hinojo and the injured Urko González. Deportivo arrive with momentum from their Osasuna win and Aubameyang's return, though Ede and Eddahchouri are out. All of this is already reflected in the market, so we rate the hosts narrow favourites at roughly 41% with Deportivo around 30%, and see a slightly below-even chance of three or more goals.
- Espanyol · Eder Sarabia takes charge at home for the first time after replacing the previous coach, and he won 1-0 at Villarreal in his first game. (moderate · dxtcampeon.elidealgallego.com)
- Espanyol · Sarabia cannot sit on the bench because of a touchline suspension, so Jon López and Aitor Unzué will run the team. (minor · comuniate.com)
- Espanyol · Right-back Roger Hinojo is suspended after his fifth yellow card, at Villarreal. (moderate · pericos.es)
- Espanyol · Midfielder Urko González is out with minor physical discomfort, and Sarabia hopes he will be back after the international break. (moderate · futbolfantasy.com)
- Espanyol · Kike García (hamstring, out until 2027) and Jofre Carreras remain injured. (minor · jornadaperfecta.com)
- Espanyol · Sarabia has left the goalkeeper spot open to competition (Moscardo and Calatrava mentioned) and expects an intense, front-foot side. Fortuño is the likely starter. (minor · comuniate.com)
- Espanyol · Roberto Fernández, Javi Hernández and Vanja Drkusic have been called up by their national teams. This does not affect the match. (minor · jornadaperfecta.com)
- Deportivo La Coruña · Bright Ede and Zakaria Eddahchouri are unavailable through injury. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Espanyol
Catalan club known as the Pericos, who wear blue and white and play at the RCDE Stadium in Cornellà de Llobregat. They finished 11th in La Liga in 2025–26, and Eder Sarabia took over as head coach in October 2026.
- City
- Barcelona, Spain
- Stadium
- RCDE Stadium
- Founded
- 1900
- Head coach
- Eder Sarabia
Deportivo La Coruña
A Galician club and 1999–2000 La Liga champions, Deportivo are back in the top flight in 2026–27 after eight seasons away, and they play their home games at Riazor.
- City
- A Coruña, Spain
- Stadium
- Estadio Abanca-Riazor
- Founded
- 1906
- Head coach
- Antonio Hidalgo
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Espanyol
- W@ Villarreal1-0 · 10-30
- L@ Racing Santander1-2 · 10-24
- LAtlético Madrid0-1 · 10-17
- D@ Málaga1-1 · 10-09
- LElche1-3 · 09-18
Deportivo La Coruña
- WOsasuna2-1 · 11-02
- L@ Atlético Madrid0-1 · 10-24
- DLevante1-1 · 10-16
- L@ Real Sociedad2-3 · 10-11
- DReal Betis1-1 · 09-20
Espanyol 8 days rest · Deportivo La Coruña 5 days rest
Head to head
No recent meetings in the dataset.
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