MLS Β· Matchday 34
D.C. United vs New York City FC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives D.C. United a 31% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 42% for New York City FC; the single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) with 2.78 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- D.C. United / New York City FC
- 72%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1
- D.C. United
- 58%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 22%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 24%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 52%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
D.C. United host New York City in MLS Regular Season round 34, with both sides on seven days' rest. Pre-match reports say both teams are already eliminated. The hosts have lost all of their last five games, scoring three goals and conceding 13, and are reported to be missing Tai Baribo, suspended defender Kye Rowles and goalkeeper Sean Johnson. New York City have one win, three draws and a loss from their last five. D.C. won the last two meetings, both at New York City's ground.
The model gives New York City a 39% chance of winning, D.C. United 33% and the draw 28%. Expected goals are 1.27β1.40, with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 55%. The most likely scores are 1:1 (13%), 0:1 (9%) and 1:2 (9%).
Written Fri, Nov 6, 11:08 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- Evenly matched: D.C. United 31%, draw 28%, New York City FC 42% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.78 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 52%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (24%).
- Last five: D.C. United LLLLL (0 wins), New York City FC DWDDL (1 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: D.C. United 3 wins, 2 draws, New York City FC 1 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 23 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· D.C. United
- 1.26
- Expected goals Β· New York City FC
- 1.51
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 25% / 43% / 32%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | D.C. United | Draw | New York City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.2% | 3.3% | 95.4% |
| Home -2 | 4.6% | 9.0% | 86.4% |
| Home -1 | 13.6% | 17.0% | 69.4% |
| Home +1β | 58.3% | 20.5% | 21.2% |
| Home +2 | 78.8% | 12.9% | 8.3% |
| Home +3 | 91.7% | 5.7% | 2.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:06.6%
- 2:05.0%
- 2:17.5%
- 3:02.1%
- 3:13.2%
- 3:22.4%
- 4:00.7%
- 4:11.0%
- 4:20.8%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.7%
- 0:07.5%
- 1:113.2%
- 2:25.7%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:18.2%
- 0:27.1%
- 1:29.0%
- 0:33.6%
- 1:34.5%
- 2:32.9%
- 0:41.4%
- 1:41.7%
- 2:41.1%
- 0:50.4%
- 1:50.5%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win1.1%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.7% | 52.5% | 30.3% | 14.8% |
| Under | 22.3% | 47.5% | 69.7% | 85.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.5%
- Over, even
- 20.0%
- Under, odd
- 14.8%
- Under, even
- 32.8%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 57.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 42.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· D.C. United
- 22.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· New York City FC
- 28.2%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.C. United | 28.2% | 35.7% | 22.6% | 13.5% |
| New York City FC | 22.1% | 33.4% | 25.2% | 19.4% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 17.1% | H/D 5.7% | H/A 2.5% |
| Draw | D/H 11.4% | D/D 16.4% | D/A 14.8% |
| Away | A/H 2.0% | A/D 5.7% | A/A 24.3% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): D.C. United 30.6% Β· Draw 27.7% Β· New York City FC 41.7% Β· 2.5+ 52.5%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.23 | 3.44 | 2.29 | 2.5: 1.83 / 2.04 | +0.25: 1.91 / 1.98 |
| 1xBet | 3.17 | 3.44 | 2.35 | 2.5: 1.88 / 2.00 | +1.5: 1.21 / 4.91 |
| BetAnything | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.26 | 2.5: 1.82 / 2.02 | +0.25: 1.87 / 1.95 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.26 | 2.5: 1.80 / 1.98 | 0: 2.25 / 1.63 |
| Coolbet | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.25 | 2.5: 1.82 / 1.96 | +1: 1.30 / 3.44 |
| GTbets | 3.10 | 3.38 | 2.33 | 2.5: 1.83 / 1.94 | +0.5: 1.65 / 2.29 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.04 | 3.30 | 2.26 | 2.5: 1.85 / 1.89 | 0: 2.17 / 1.63 |
| Matchbook | 3.25 | 3.55 | 2.34 | 2.5: 1.84 / 2.10 | +0.25: 1.92 / 1.98 |
| MyBookie.ag | 3.12 | 3.36 | 2.27 | 2.5: 1.79 / 1.96 | +0.5: 1.62 / 2.21 |
| Betsson | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.25 | 2.5: 1.82 / 1.98 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.05 | 3.60 | 2.33 | 2.5: 1.78 / 2.00 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.25 | 2.5: 1.82 / 1.98 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.12 | 2.5: 1.66 / 1.88 | β |
| Tipico | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.10 | 2.5: 1.67 / 2.00 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 23 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
(Claude's experimental view; does not change this page) Decision Day pits two eliminated sides against each other, with D.C. United on a five-game losing streak and now missing top scorer Tai Baribo, suspended defender Kye Rowles and goalkeeper Sean Johnson. NYCFC are also badly short-handed and have been poor for months, but their recent draws suggest slightly more stability. We lean modestly toward the visitors with low confidence, and see goals as roughly a coin flip given D.C.'s leaky defence but both blunted attacks.
- D.C. United Β· Kye Rowles is suspended for yellow-card accumulation after his booking at Columbus, and Sean Nealis is expected to replace him in defence. (moderate Β· whoscored.com)
- D.C. United Β· Top scorer Tai Baribo (16 goals) is out or doubtful with a hip problem. (major Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- D.C. United Β· Louis Munteanu (leg), Hosei Kijima (leg) and Gabriel Segal (ankle) are also listed as out. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- D.C. United Β· First-choice goalkeeper Sean Johnson (knee) is out, so Alex Bono is expected to start. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- D.C. United Β· D.C. are already eliminated from the playoffs and sit 14th in the East on 33 points. They have lost five straight, so this is a dead rubber for them. (moderate Β· si.com)
- New York City FC Β· Maxi Moralez (knee), Kai Trewin (leg) and Drew Baiera (leg) are listed as out. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- New York City FC Β· Alonso Martinez (thigh) and Arnau Farnos (leg) are out. Aiden O'Neill (ankle) is out or doubtful. (moderate Β· whoscored.com)
- New York City FC Β· NYCFC were eliminated from the playoffs last weekend and have won two of their last 15 MLS matches. Decision Day is a dead rubber for them, and coach Pascal Jansen has blamed low squad availability for the decline. (moderate Β· beinsports.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
D.C. United
One of Major League Soccer's original clubs and a four-time MLS Cup winner, D.C. United play in the Eastern Conference at Audi Field and are coached by Swiss manager RenΓ© Weiler.
- City
- Washington, D.C., United States
- Stadium
- Audi Field
- Founded
- 1994
- Head coach
- RenΓ© Weiler
New York City FC
An MLS club in the Eastern Conference that reached the 2025 conference final under Pascal Jansen.
- City
- New York, United States
- Stadium
- Yankee Stadium
- Founded
- 2013
- Head coach
- Pascal Jansen
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
D.C. United
- L@ Columbus Crew0-3 Β· 10-31
- L@ Toronto FC1-2 Β· 10-28
- LFC Cincinnati0-2 Β· 10-24
- L@ FC Cincinnati1-2 Β· 10-21
- L@ Orlando City SC1-4 Β· 10-17
New York City FC
- DCF MontrΓ©al1-1 Β· 10-31
- WAtlanta United FC2-1 Β· 10-28
- D@ Orlando City SC2-2 Β· 10-24
- DLos Angeles FC1-1 Β· 10-17
- L@ Inter Miami0-2 Β· 10-14
D.C. United 7 days rest Β· New York City FC 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-05-03New York City FC 0-2 D.C. UnitedMLS
- 2025-08-30New York City FC 1-2 D.C. UnitedMLS
- 2025-05-14D.C. United 0-0 New York City FCMLS
- 2024-09-14D.C. United 1-1 New York City FCMLS
- 2024-04-20New York City FC 2-0 D.C. UnitedMLS
- 2023-10-07D.C. United 2-0 New York City FCMLS
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