EFL Championship Β· Matchday 15
Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Derby County win 45%, draw 25%, Bolton Wanderers win 30%; the final score was 3:1.
Full time: Derby County 3-1 Bolton Wanderers. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Derby County" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Derby County | 44.8% | most likely |
| Correct score | 3:1 | 4.9% | #9 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 16.1% | #3 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/H | 2.7% | #8 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Derby County / Bolton Wanderers
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- Bolton Wanderers
- 55%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 27%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 55%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours Derby County (45%); expected goals Derby County 1.60 β 1.28 Bolton Wanderers.
- 2.88 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 55%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (27%).
- Last five: Derby County LLDLL (0 wins), Bolton Wanderers WLLDW (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet β the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals Β· Derby County
- 1.60
- Expected goals Β· Bolton Wanderers
- 1.28
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 35% / 40% / 26%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Derby County | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.2% | 6.3% | 90.5% |
| Home -2 | 9.5% | 13.6% | 76.9% |
| Home -1β | 23.1% | 21.8% | 55.2% |
| Home +1 | 69.7% | 17.3% | 13.0% |
| Home +2 | 87.0% | 8.6% | 4.4% |
| Home +3 | 95.6% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:08.8%
- 2:07.2%
- 2:19.2%
- 3:03.8%
- 3:14.9%
- 3:23.1%
- 4:01.5%
- 4:12.0%
- 4:21.3%
- 5:00.5%
- 5:10.6%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.4%
- 0:05.8%
- 1:111.7%
- 2:25.9%
- 3:31.3%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:17.0%
- 0:24.6%
- 1:27.3%
- 0:32.0%
- 1:33.1%
- 2:32.5%
- 0:40.6%
- 1:41.0%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 78.4% | 55.0% | 32.6% | 16.5% |
| Under | 21.6% | 45.0% | 67.4% | 83.5% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 33.7%
- Over, even
- 21.3%
- Under, odd
- 15.8%
- Under, even
- 29.2%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 57.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 42.2%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Derby County
- 27.9%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Bolton Wanderers
- 20.1%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County | 20.1% | 32.3% | 25.9% | 21.7% |
| Bolton Wanderers | 27.9% | 35.6% | 22.8% | 13.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 27.5% | H/D 5.3% | H/A 2.0% |
| Draw | D/H 14.7% | D/D 14.3% | D/A 10.6% |
| Away | A/H 2.7% | A/D 5.3% | A/A 17.7% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Derby County
Nicknamed the Rams, Derby County are a two-time English champions (1971β72, 1974β75) who play at Pride Park Stadium.
- City
- Derby, England
- Stadium
- Pride Park Stadium
- Founded
- 1884
Bolton Wanderers
Bolton are a founder member of the Football League, nicknamed The Trotters, and in 2026β27 they play in the EFL Championship under head coach Steven Schumacher.
- City
- Bolton, England
- Stadium
- Toughsheet Community Stadium
- Founded
- 1874
- Head coach
- Steven Schumacher
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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