Conference League Β· Matchday 3
FC Thun vs Heart of Midlothian prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-05
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): FC Thun win 54%, draw 24%, Heart of Midlothian win 21%; the final score was 3:1.
Full time: FC Thun 3-1 Heart of Midlothian. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "FC Thun" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | FC Thun | 54.5% | most likely |
| Correct score | 3:1 | 5.9% | #6 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 16.0% | #3 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.6% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 33.8% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- FC Thun
- 54%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- Heart of Midlothian
- 46%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 34%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 55%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours FC Thun (54%); expected goals FC Thun 1.81 β 1.06 Heart of Midlothian.
- 2.86 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 55%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (34%).
- Last five: FC Thun LLDLL (0 wins), Heart of Midlothian LDDDD (0 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet β the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals Β· FC Thun
- 1.81
- Expected goals Β· Heart of Midlothian
- 1.06
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 40% / 40% / 20%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | FC Thun | Draw | Heart of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 5.4% | 8.9% | 85.7% |
| Home -2 | 14.3% | 16.9% | 68.8% |
| Home -1β | 31.2% | 23.3% | 45.5% |
| Home +1 | 78.6% | 13.4% | 8.0% |
| Home +2 | 92.0% | 5.7% | 2.3% |
| Home +3 | 97.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.8%
- 2:09.3%
- 2:19.8%
- 3:05.6%
- 3:15.9%
- 3:23.1%
- 4:02.5%
- 4:12.7%
- 4:21.4%
- 5:00.9%
- 5:11.0%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win1.8%
- 0:06.2%
- 1:111.4%
- 2:25.2%
- 3:31.1%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:15.5%
- 0:23.2%
- 1:25.7%
- 0:31.1%
- 1:32.0%
- 2:31.8%
- 0:40.3%
- 1:40.5%
- 2:40.5%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 78.5% | 54.6% | 32.2% | 16.2% |
| Under | 21.5% | 45.4% | 67.8% | 83.8% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 33.5%
- Over, even
- 21.1%
- Under, odd
- 15.2%
- Under, even
- 30.2%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 55.1%
- Both teams to score: No
- 44.9%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· FC Thun
- 34.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Heart of Midlothian
- 16.4%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Thun | 16.4% | 29.6% | 26.8% | 27.2% |
| Heart of Midlothian | 34.8% | 36.7% | 19.4% | 9.1% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 33.8% | H/D 4.9% | H/A 1.5% |
| Draw | D/H 17.7% | D/D 14.2% | D/A 8.2% |
| Away | A/H 3.0% | A/D 4.9% | A/A 11.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
FC Thun
A small Bernese Oberland club that won its first Swiss Super League title in 2025β26, a year after promotion, and so earned a Champions League place.
- City
- Thun, Switzerland
- Stadium
- Stockhorn Arena
- Founded
- 1898
- Head coach
- Gian-Luca Privitelli
Heart of Midlothian
Hearts, nicknamed the Jambos, are one of Edinburgh's two major clubs, and they finished second in the 2025β26 Scottish Premiership.
- City
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Stadium
- Tynecastle Park
- Founded
- 1874
- Head coach
- Wouter Vrancken
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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