Europa League · Matchday 4
Celtic vs Beşiktaş prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-05
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Celtic win 28%, draw 26%, Beşiktaş win 46%; the final score was 3:2.
Full time: Celtic 3-2 Beşiktaş. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Beşiktaş" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Celtic | 28.5% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 3:2 | 2.3% | #14 of 31 |
| Total goals | 5 goals | 8.6% | #5 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 10.5% | #5 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Celtic / Beşiktaş
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Hit
- Celtic
- 54%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 22%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 27%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 53%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours Beşiktaş (46%); expected goals Celtic 1.21 – 1.58 Beşiktaş.
- 2.79 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 53%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (27%).
- Last five: Celtic LLLLW (1 wins), Beşiktaş DWWLW (3 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals · Celtic
- 1.21
- Expected goals · Beşiktaş
- 1.58
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 24% / 41% / 34%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Celtic | Draw | Beşiktaş |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.0% | 2.8% | 96.2% |
| Home -2 | 3.8% | 8.1% | 88.1% |
| Home -1 | 11.9% | 16.5% | 71.5% |
| Home +1≈ | 54.5% | 21.9% | 23.6% |
| Home +2 | 76.4% | 13.9% | 9.7% |
| Home +3 | 90.3% | 6.4% | 3.3% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:06.8%
- 2:04.5%
- 2:17.1%
- 3:01.8%
- 3:12.8%
- 3:22.3%
- 4:00.5%
- 4:10.9%
- 4:20.7%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.2%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.6%
- 0:06.7%
- 1:112.3%
- 2:25.6%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:19.1%
- 0:27.7%
- 1:29.3%
- 0:34.1%
- 1:34.9%
- 2:33.0%
- 0:41.6%
- 1:41.9%
- 2:41.2%
- 0:50.5%
- 1:50.6%
- 2:50.4%
- Other away win1.2%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.3% | 52.8% | 30.6% | 15.1% |
| Under | 22.7% | 47.2% | 69.4% | 84.9% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.7%
- Over, even
- 20.1%
- Under, odd
- 16.0%
- Under, even
- 31.2%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.3%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Celtic
- 20.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · Beşiktaş
- 30.0%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 30.0% | 36.1% | 21.8% | 12.2% |
| Beşiktaş | 20.5% | 32.5% | 25.7% | 21.2% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 16.0% | H/D 5.3% | H/A 2.7% |
| Draw | D/H 10.5% | D/D 15.3% | D/A 15.6% |
| Away | A/H 1.9% | A/D 5.3% | A/A 27.3% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Celtic
Glasgow club known as the Bhoys, one of Scotland's most successful sides, who won the 2025–26 Scottish league title and Scottish Cup and are now managed by Martin O'Neill.
- City
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Stadium
- Celtic Park
- Founded
- 1887
- Head coach
- Martin O'Neill
Beşiktaş
One of Istanbul's big three Süper Lig clubs, Beşiktaş play at the Tüpraş Stadyumu near Dolmabahçe Palace and have reached the Europa League/UEFA Cup quarter-finals in 2002–03 and 2016–17.
- City
- Istanbul, Turkey
- Stadium
- Tüpraş Stadyumu (Beşiktaş Park)
- Founded
- 1903
- Head coach
- Vincenzo Italiano
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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