Europa League · Matchday 4
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-05
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): AZ Alkmaar win 31%, draw 26%, Juventus win 43%; the final score was 1:2.
Full time: AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Juventus. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Juventus" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Juventus | 43.2% | most likely |
| Correct score | 1:2 | 9.1% | #2 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 22.2% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 25.6% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- AZ Alkmaar / Juventus
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Miss
- AZ Alkmaar
- 57%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- A/A
- 26%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 53%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours Juventus (43%); expected goals AZ Alkmaar 1.25 – 1.53 Juventus.
- 2.78 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 53%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (26%).
- Last five: AZ Alkmaar LLWDW (2 wins), Juventus WLWDL (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals · AZ Alkmaar
- 1.25
- Expected goals · Juventus
- 1.53
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 25% / 42% / 33%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.2% | 3.2% | 95.6% |
| Home -2 | 4.4% | 8.8% | 86.8% |
| Home -1 | 13.2% | 17.4% | 69.5% |
| Home +1≈ | 56.8% | 21.4% | 21.8% |
| Home +2 | 78.2% | 13.1% | 8.7% |
| Home +3 | 91.3% | 5.8% | 2.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:07.2%
- 2:04.9%
- 2:17.4%
- 3:02.0%
- 3:13.1%
- 3:22.4%
- 4:00.6%
- 4:11.0%
- 4:20.7%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.2%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.7%
- 0:06.8%
- 1:112.5%
- 2:25.7%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:18.9%
- 0:27.3%
- 1:29.1%
- 0:33.7%
- 1:34.6%
- 2:32.9%
- 0:41.4%
- 1:41.8%
- 2:41.1%
- 0:50.4%
- 1:50.5%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win1.1%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.1% | 52.5% | 30.3% | 14.9% |
| Under | 22.9% | 47.5% | 69.7% | 85.1% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.5%
- Over, even
- 20.0%
- Under, odd
- 16.1%
- Under, even
- 31.4%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.5%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · AZ Alkmaar
- 21.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Juventus
- 28.7%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 28.7% | 35.8% | 22.4% | 13.1% |
| Juventus | 21.7% | 33.2% | 25.3% | 19.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 17.3% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 2.6% |
| Draw | D/H 11.2% | D/D 15.5% | D/A 15.0% |
| Away | A/H 2.0% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 25.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie club from Alkmaar, two-time Dutch champions (1980–81, 2008–09), known for youth development; finished 7th in 2025–26 and now coached by Lee-Roy Echteld.
- City
- Alkmaar, Netherlands
- Stadium
- AFAS Stadion
- Founded
- 1967
- Head coach
- Lee-Roy Echteld
Juventus
Turin's "Bianconeri" are Italy's most decorated club, with a record 36 Serie A titles, and compete in Serie A and in European competitions.
- City
- Turin, Italy
- Stadium
- Allianz Stadium
- Founded
- 1897
- Head coach
- Luciano Spalletti
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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