Champions League · Matchday 4
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-04
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Fenerbahçe win 24%, draw 25%, Liverpool win 51%; the final score was 3:2.
Full time: Fenerbahçe 3-2 Liverpool. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Liverpool" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Fenerbahçe | 24.3% | #3 of 3 |
| Correct score | 3:2 | 2.0% | #16 of 31 |
| Total goals | 5 goals | 8.9% | #5 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 9.2% | #5 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Liverpool
- 51%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Hit
- Fenerbahçe
- 49%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 22%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 31%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 54%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours Liverpool (51%); expected goals Fenerbahçe 1.12 – 1.71 Liverpool.
- 2.83 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 54%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (31%).
- Last five: Fenerbahçe DLDWD (1 wins), Liverpool LWWWW (4 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals · Fenerbahçe
- 1.12
- Expected goals · Liverpool
- 1.71
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 22% / 41% / 38%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Fenerbahçe | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.7% | 2.2% | 97.1% |
| Home -2 | 2.9% | 6.7% | 90.4% |
| Home -1 | 9.6% | 14.7% | 75.7% |
| Home +1≈ | 49.4% | 22.8% | 27.8% |
| Home +2 | 72.2% | 15.6% | 12.1% |
| Home +3 | 87.9% | 7.8% | 4.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:06.1%
- 2:03.7%
- 2:16.3%
- 3:01.4%
- 3:12.4%
- 3:22.0%
- 4:00.4%
- 4:10.7%
- 4:20.6%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.5%
- 0:06.5%
- 1:111.9%
- 2:25.4%
- 3:31.1%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:19.6%
- 0:28.6%
- 1:29.7%
- 0:34.9%
- 1:35.5%
- 2:33.1%
- 0:42.1%
- 1:42.3%
- 2:41.3%
- 0:50.7%
- 1:50.8%
- 2:50.4%
- Other away win1.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.9% | 53.7% | 31.4% | 15.6% |
| Under | 22.1% | 46.3% | 68.6% | 84.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 33.1%
- Over, even
- 20.6%
- Under, odd
- 15.6%
- Under, even
- 30.7%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 55.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 44.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Fenerbahçe
- 18.1%
- Clean-sheet probability · Liverpool
- 32.7%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 32.7% | 36.6% | 20.4% | 10.3% |
| Liverpool | 18.1% | 31.0% | 26.4% | 24.5% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 13.5% | H/D 5.1% | H/A 2.8% |
| Draw | D/H 9.2% | D/D 14.8% | D/A 16.8% |
| Away | A/H 1.6% | A/D 5.1% | A/A 30.9% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Fenerbahçe
One of Turkey's biggest clubs, based on the Asian side of Istanbul and known for its yellow-and-navy stripes, it finished second in the 2025–26 Süper Lig.
- City
- Istanbul, Turkey
- Stadium
- Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium
- Founded
- 1907
- Head coach
- Emre Belözoğlu
Liverpool
Liverpool, nicknamed the Reds, are one of England's most successful and widely supported clubs and finished 5th in the 2025–26 Premier League.
- City
- Liverpool, England
- Stadium
- Anfield
- Founded
- 1892
- Head coach
- Andoni Iraola
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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