Champions League · Matchday 4
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-04
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): AEK Athens win 7%, draw 14%, Real Madrid win 79%; the final score was 2:3.
Full time: AEK Athens 2-3 Real Madrid. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Real Madrid" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Real Madrid | 79.1% | most likely |
| Correct score | 2:3 | 2.7% | #14 of 31 |
| Total goals | 5 goals | 12.7% | #4 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/A | 20.4% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Real Madrid
- 79%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +2Hit
- AEK Athens
- 41%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 0:2 / 0:3
- 23%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 41%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 55%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 66%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours Real Madrid (79%); expected goals AEK Athens 0.71 – 2.70 Real Madrid.
- Goals look likely: 3.41 expected in total, 66% for over 2.5 and 48% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 0:2 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (55%).
- Last five: AEK Athens LLWWD (2 wins), Real Madrid WWWWW (5 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals · AEK Athens
- 0.71
- Expected goals · Real Madrid
- 2.70
- Most likely score
- 0:2 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 10% / 32% / 59%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | AEK Athens | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 99.6% |
| Home -2 | 0.4% | 1.5% | 98.1% |
| Home -1 | 1.9% | 5.1% | 93.1% |
| Home +1 | 20.9% | 20.4% | 58.7% |
| Home +2≈ | 41.3% | 21.9% | 36.8% |
| Home +3 | 63.2% | 17.2% | 19.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home +2
Correct score
- 1:02.0%
- 2:00.8%
- 2:12.2%
- 3:00.2%
- 3:10.5%
- 3:20.7%
- 4:00.0%
- 4:10.1%
- 4:20.1%
- 5:00.0%
- 5:10.0%
- 5:20.0%
- Other home win0.1%
- 0:03.6%
- 1:16.6%
- 2:23.0%
- 3:30.6%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:18.6%
- 0:212.1%
- 1:28.5%
- 0:310.9%
- 1:37.7%
- 2:32.7%
- 0:47.3%
- 1:45.2%
- 2:41.8%
- 0:54.0%
- 1:52.8%
- 2:51.0%
- Other away win6.4%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 85.7% | 66.2% | 44.3% | 25.7% |
| Under | 14.3% | 33.8% | 55.7% | 74.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 38.7%
- Over, even
- 27.5%
- Under, odd
- 10.6%
- Under, even
- 23.2%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 47.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 52.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · AEK Athens
- 6.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Real Madrid
- 49.3%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens | 49.3% | 34.9% | 12.3% | 3.5% |
| Real Madrid | 6.7% | 18.1% | 24.5% | 50.7% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 3.6% | H/D 2.9% | H/A 3.1% |
| Draw | D/H 2.8% | D/D 8.3% | D/A 20.4% |
| Away | A/H 0.5% | A/D 2.9% | A/A 55.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
AEK Athens
AEK is a major Greek club from Athens, founded in 1924 by refugees from Constantinople. It is nicknamed the Double-Headed Eagle and plays in yellow and black at the 32,500-seat Agia Sophia Stadium, known as AEK Arena in UEFA competitions.
- City
- Athens (Nea Filadelfeia), Greece
- Stadium
- Agia Sophia Stadium
- Founded
- 1924
- Head coach
- Marko Nikolić
Real Madrid
Spain's most decorated club and a record European champion, Real Madrid play in white and compete in La Liga, where José Mourinho returned as head coach in 2026 and the team has been on a strong run of results.
- City
- Madrid, Spain
- Stadium
- Santiago Bernabéu
- Founded
- 1902
- Head coach
- José Mourinho
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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