EFL Championship Β· Matchday 14
West Brom vs Southampton prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): West Brom win 42%, draw 28%, Southampton win 31%; the final score was 1:1.
Full time: West Brom 1-1 Southampton. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "West Brom" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Draw | 27.6% | #3 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:1 | 13.1% | most likely |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 25.5% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 49.7% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | H/D | 5.5% | #6 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- West Brom / Southampton
- 72%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
- Southampton
- 58%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 25%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 50%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: West Brom 42%, draw 28%, Southampton 31% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.68 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 50%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (25%).
- Last five: West Brom WDWWL (3 wins), Southampton WWDWW (4 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· West Brom
- 1.46
- Expected goals Β· Southampton
- 1.22
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 33% / 42% / 26%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | West Brom | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.5% | 5.5% | 92.0% |
| Home -2 | 8.0% | 12.7% | 79.3% |
| Home -1β | 20.7% | 21.0% | 58.3% |
| Home +1 | 69.3% | 17.4% | 13.2% |
| Home +2 | 86.8% | 8.9% | 4.3% |
| Home +3 | 95.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.0%
- 2:07.3%
- 2:18.9%
- 3:03.6%
- 3:14.3%
- 3:22.7%
- 4:01.3%
- 4:11.6%
- 4:21.0%
- 5:00.4%
- 5:10.5%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win0.9%
- 0:07.8%
- 1:113.1%
- 2:25.5%
- 3:31.1%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:17.4%
- 0:25.1%
- 1:27.5%
- 0:32.1%
- 1:33.0%
- 2:32.2%
- 0:40.6%
- 1:40.9%
- 2:40.7%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.6%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 75.8% | 50.3% | 28.3% | 13.5% |
| Under | 24.2% | 49.7% | 71.7% | 86.5% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 31.4%
- Over, even
- 18.8%
- Under, odd
- 16.4%
- Under, even
- 33.3%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 55.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 44.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· West Brom
- 29.5%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Southampton
- 23.2%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | 23.2% | 33.9% | 24.8% | 18.2% |
| Southampton | 29.5% | 36.0% | 22.0% | 12.5% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 25.2% | H/D 5.5% | H/A 1.8% |
| Draw | D/H 14.2% | D/D 16.5% | D/A 11.0% |
| Away | A/H 2.3% | A/D 5.5% | A/A 17.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
West Brom
Nicknamed the Baggies, West Brom are a Black Country club and former Premier League side who compete in the EFL Championship.
- City
- West Bromwich, England
- Stadium
- The Hawthorns
- Founded
- 1878
- Head coach
- James Morrison
Southampton
Nicknamed the Saints, this Hampshire club competes in the EFL Championship and finished fourth in 2025β26 but was expelled from the promotion play-offs.
- City
- Southampton, England
- Stadium
- St Mary's Stadium
- Founded
- 1885
- Head coach
- Tonda Eckert
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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