EFL Championship Β· Matchday 14
Watford vs Lincoln City prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Watford win 38%, draw 28%, Lincoln City win 34%; the final score was 1:0.
Full time: Watford 1-0 Lincoln City. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Watford" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Watford | 37.5% | most likely |
| Correct score | 1:0 | 8.9% | #2 of 31 |
| Total goals | 1 goals | 17.2% | #3 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.6% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 13.2% | #4 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Watford / Lincoln City
- 72%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- Lincoln City
- 62%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 22%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 22%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Under
- 52%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Watford 38%, draw 28%, Lincoln City 34% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.61 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 48%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (22%).
- Last five: Watford LLWLL (1 wins), Lincoln City LWDLL (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Watford
- 1.34
- Expected goals Β· Lincoln City
- 1.27
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 30% / 43% / 28%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Watford | Draw | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.8% | 4.4% | 93.7% |
| Home -2 | 6.3% | 11.2% | 82.5% |
| Home -1β | 17.5% | 20.0% | 62.5% |
| Home +1 | 65.8% | 18.9% | 15.3% |
| Home +2 | 84.7% | 10.1% | 5.2% |
| Home +3 | 94.8% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:08.9%
- 2:06.6%
- 2:18.4%
- 3:03.0%
- 3:13.7%
- 3:22.4%
- 4:01.0%
- 4:11.3%
- 4:20.8%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.7%
- 0:08.3%
- 1:113.5%
- 2:25.3%
- 3:31.0%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:18.3%
- 0:25.9%
- 1:27.9%
- 0:32.5%
- 1:33.4%
- 2:32.3%
- 0:40.8%
- 1:41.1%
- 2:40.7%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.6%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 74.4% | 48.4% | 26.6% | 12.4% |
| Under | 25.6% | 51.6% | 73.4% | 87.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 30.5%
- Over, even
- 17.9%
- Under, odd
- 17.2%
- Under, even
- 34.4%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 54.1%
- Both teams to score: No
- 45.9%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Watford
- 28.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Lincoln City
- 26.2%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 26.2% | 35.1% | 23.5% | 15.2% |
| Lincoln City | 28.1% | 35.7% | 22.6% | 13.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 22.3% | H/D 5.5% | H/A 2.0% |
| Draw | D/H 13.2% | D/D 17.2% | D/A 12.2% |
| Away | A/H 2.1% | A/D 5.5% | A/A 20.1% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Watford
Nicknamed the Hornets and known for their yellow-and-black colours, Watford are a Hertfordshire club competing in the EFL Championship, with a long history of moving between the Premier League and the second tier.
- City
- Watford, England
- Stadium
- Vicarage Road
- Founded
- 1881
- Head coach
- Alessio Dionisi
Lincoln City
Nicknamed "the Imps", Lincoln City won the 2025β26 League One title with 103 points, earning a return to the second tier after a 65-year absence.
- City
- Lincoln, England
- Stadium
- Sincil Bank
- Founded
- 1884
- Head coach
- Chris Cohen & Tom Shaw (joint head coaches)
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: EFL Championship β