Champions League · Matchday 4

Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Villarreal
LWLDW
0 - 6
HT 0-4
Paris Saint-Germain
WWWWW

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-03

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Villarreal win 7%, draw 14%, Paris Saint-Germain win 78%; the final score was 0:6.

Full time: Villarreal 0-6 Paris Saint-Germain. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Paris Saint-Germain" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultParis Saint-Germain78.2%most likely
Correct score0:66.0%outside the listed scores (pooled "other" cell)
Total goals6 goals7.0%#6 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.565.6%most likely
Half-time/full-timeA/A54.6%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

ModelConfidence: High
1X2 (match result)Hit
Paris Saint-Germain
78%
Handicap 1X2 · Home +2Miss
Villarreal
42%
Correct scoreMiss
0:2 / 0:3
23%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
42%
Half-time / full-timeHit
A/A
55%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
66%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The model favours Paris Saint-Germain (78%); expected goals Villarreal 0.72 – 2.66 Paris Saint-Germain.
  • Goals look likely: 3.38 expected in total, 66% for over 2.5 and 48% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 0:2 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (55%).
  • Last five: Villarreal LWLDW (2 wins), Paris Saint-Germain WWWWW (5 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Villarreal 7%Draw 14%Paris Saint-Germain 78%

No prices available for this match yet — the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.

Expected goals · Villarreal
0.72
Expected goals · Paris Saint-Germain
2.66
Most likely score
0:2 (12%)
Half-time result
10% / 32% / 58%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2VillarrealDrawParis Saint-Germain
Home -30.1%0.3%99.6%
Home -20.4%1.6%98.0%
Home -12.0%5.4%92.7%
Home +121.8%20.7%57.5%
Home +2≈42.5%21.8%35.7%
Home +364.3%16.9%18.8%

Model's balanced line: Home +2

Correct score

Villarreal · Home
  • 1:02.1%
  • 2:00.9%
  • 2:12.3%
  • 3:00.2%
  • 3:10.6%
  • 3:20.7%
  • 4:00.0%
  • 4:10.1%
  • 4:20.1%
  • 5:00.0%
  • 5:10.0%
  • 5:20.0%
  • Other home win0.2%
Draw
  • 0:03.7%
  • 1:16.9%
  • 2:23.1%
  • 3:30.7%
  • Other draw0.1%
Paris Saint-Germain · Away
  • 0:18.8%
  • 0:212.1%
  • 1:28.7%
  • 0:310.7%
  • 1:37.7%
  • 2:32.8%
  • 0:47.1%
  • 1:45.1%
  • 2:41.8%
  • 0:53.8%
  • 1:52.7%
  • 2:51.0%
  • Other away win6.0%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
3.7%
1
10.9%
2
19.8%
3
21.9%
4
18.5%
5
12.5%
6
7.0%
7+
5.6%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over85.4%65.6%43.6%25.1%
Under14.6%34.4%56.4%74.9%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
38.4%
Over, even
27.2%
Under, odd
10.9%
Under, even
23.6%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
48.0%
Both teams to score: No
52.0%
Clean-sheet probability · Villarreal
7.0%
Clean-sheet probability · Paris Saint-Germain
48.7%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Villarreal48.7%35.0%12.6%3.6%
Paris Saint-Germain7.0%18.6%24.8%49.6%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
3.8%
H/D
3.0%
H/A
3.2%
Draw
D/H
3.0%
D/D
8.5%
D/A
20.5%
Away
A/H
0.6%
A/D
3.0%
A/A
54.6%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Villarreal

Nicknamed the Yellow Submarine, this small-town club from Castellón finished third in La Liga in 2025–26 and is back in the Champions League.

City
Villarreal, Spain
Stadium
Estadio de la Cerámica
Founded
1923
Head coach
Iñigo Pérez

Paris Saint-Germain

Paris-based Ligue 1 club formed in 1970 and coached by Luis Enrique, who has led them to back-to-back Champions League titles in 2025 and 2026.

City
Paris, France
Stadium
Parc des Princes
Founded
1970
Head coach
Luis Enrique

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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