EFL Championship · Matchday 14
QPR vs Burnley prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): QPR win 49%, draw 26%, Burnley win 25%; the final score was 1:1.
Full time: QPR 1-1 Burnley. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "QPR" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Draw | 25.9% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:1 | 12.3% | most likely |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 24.5% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 46.2% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | A/D | 5.4% | #7 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- QPR / Draw
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
- Burnley
- 51%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 30%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 54%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour QPR (49%); expected goals QPR 1.68 – 1.15 Burnley.
- 2.83 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 54%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (30%).
- Last five: QPR LWLWD (2 wins), Burnley DLLDW (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · QPR
- 1.68
- Expected goals · Burnley
- 1.15
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 37% / 40% / 23%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | QPR | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.1% | 7.4% | 88.5% |
| Home -2 | 11.5% | 15.2% | 73.4% |
| Home -1≈ | 26.6% | 22.2% | 51.1% |
| Home +1 | 74.7% | 15.0% | 10.3% |
| Home +2 | 89.7% | 7.1% | 3.2% |
| Home +3 | 96.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.0%
- 2:08.3%
- 2:19.6%
- 3:04.7%
- 3:15.4%
- 3:23.1%
- 4:02.0%
- 4:12.3%
- 4:21.3%
- 5:00.7%
- 5:10.8%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.5%
- 0:06.7%
- 1:112.3%
- 2:25.5%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:15.9%
- 0:23.9%
- 1:26.6%
- 0:31.5%
- 1:32.5%
- 2:32.1%
- 0:40.4%
- 1:40.7%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.6%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 78.3% | 53.8% | 31.5% | 15.8% |
| Under | 21.7% | 46.2% | 68.5% | 84.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 33.2%
- Over, even
- 20.7%
- Under, odd
- 15.0%
- Under, even
- 31.2%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.5%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · QPR
- 31.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · Burnley
- 18.6%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | 18.6% | 31.3% | 26.3% | 23.8% |
| Burnley | 31.6% | 36.4% | 21.0% | 11.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 30.4% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 1.7% |
| Draw | D/H 15.7% | D/D 15.1% | D/A 9.1% |
| Away | A/H 2.7% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 14.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
QPR
A west London club known as the Hoops or the R's, QPR play in the EFL Championship and finished 15th in 2025–26.
- City
- London, England
- Stadium
- Loftus Road
- Founded
- 1882
- Head coach
- Julien Stéphan
Burnley
Burnley, nicknamed the Clarets, are a Lancashire club that was relegated from the Premier League in 2025.
- City
- Burnley, England
- Stadium
- Turf Moor
- Founded
- 1882
- Head coach
- Fabio Celestini
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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