EFL Championship Β· Matchday 14

Birmingham City vs Millwall prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Birmingham City
WLWWW
3 - 0
HT 3-0
Millwall
WLDLW

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Birmingham City win 49%, draw 26%, Millwall win 25%; the final score was 3:0.

Full time: Birmingham City 3-0 Millwall. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Birmingham City" β€” correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultBirmingham City48.6%most likely
Correct score3:04.6%#10 of 31
Total goals3 goals22.3%#2 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.553.8%most likely
Half-time/full-timeH/H30.2%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Birmingham City / Draw
75%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
Millwall
51%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
22%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
47%
Half-time / full-timeHit
H/H
30%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
54%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Birmingham City (49%); expected goals Birmingham City 1.68 – 1.16 Millwall.
  • 2.83 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 54%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (30%).
  • Last five: Birmingham City WLWWW (4 wins), Millwall WLDLW (2 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Birmingham City 49%Draw 26%Millwall 25%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· Birmingham City
1.68
Expected goals Β· Millwall
1.16
Most likely score
1:1 (12%)
Half-time result
37% / 40% / 23%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Birmingham CityDrawMillwall
Home -34.0%7.4%88.6%
Home -211.4%15.1%73.5%
Home -1β‰ˆ26.5%22.1%51.4%
Home +174.7%14.9%10.4%
Home +289.6%7.2%3.2%
Home +396.8%2.4%0.8%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Birmingham City Β· Home
  • 1:08.9%
  • 2:08.3%
  • 2:19.6%
  • 3:04.6%
  • 3:15.4%
  • 3:23.1%
  • 4:01.9%
  • 4:12.2%
  • 4:21.3%
  • 5:00.7%
  • 5:10.8%
  • 5:20.4%
  • Other home win1.5%
Draw
  • 0:06.8%
  • 1:112.4%
  • 2:25.5%
  • 3:31.2%
  • Other draw0.2%
Millwall Β· Away
  • 0:15.8%
  • 0:23.9%
  • 1:26.6%
  • 0:31.5%
  • 1:32.5%
  • 2:32.1%
  • 0:40.4%
  • 1:40.7%
  • 2:40.6%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.2%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.6%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
6.8%
1
14.7%
2
24.6%
3
22.3%
4
15.8%
5
8.9%
6
4.2%
7+
2.6%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over78.4%53.8%31.5%15.8%
Under21.6%46.2%68.5%84.2%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
33.2%
Over, even
20.7%
Under, odd
14.7%
Under, even
31.4%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
56.7%
Both teams to score: No
43.3%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Birmingham City
31.5%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Millwall
18.7%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Birmingham City18.7%31.3%26.3%23.7%
Millwall31.5%36.4%21.0%11.1%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
30.2%
H/D
5.4%
H/A
1.7%
Draw
D/H
15.7%
D/D
15.2%
D/A
9.1%
Away
A/H
2.7%
A/D
5.4%
A/A
14.5%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Birmingham City

A historic West Midlands club in the EFL Championship, managed by Chris Davies.

City
Birmingham, England
Stadium
St Andrew's (Knighthead Park)
Founded
1875
Head coach
Chris Davies

Millwall

A South London club nicknamed the Lions, known for a tough, physical, well-organised style; they finished 3rd in the 2025–26 Championship and reached the play-offs.

City
London, England
Stadium
The Den
Founded
1885
Head coach
Alex Neil

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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