Ligue 1 Β· Matchday 9

Lorient vs Brest prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Lorient
DWWLD
0 - 2
HT 0-0
Brest
LDWLL

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Lorient win 39%, draw 30%, Brest win 31%; the final score was 0:2.

Full time: Lorient 0-2 Brest. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Lorient" β€” missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultBrest31.4%#2 of 3
Correct score0:25.7%#8 of 31
Total goals2 goals27.1%most likely
Over/under 2.5Under 2.556.1%most likely
Half-time/full-timeD/A12.5%#5 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Lorient / Brest
70%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
Brest
61%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 1:0
24%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
48%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
22%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Under
56%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: Lorient 39%, draw 30%, Brest 31% β€” no clear lean from the probabilities.
  • 2.44 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 44%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (22%).
  • Last five: Lorient DWWLD (2 wins), Brest LDWLL (1 wins).
  • A 30% draw probability is on the high side β€” the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Lorient 39%Draw 30%Brest 31%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· Lorient
1.30
Expected goals Β· Brest
1.14
Most likely score
1:1 (14%)
Half-time result
29% / 46% / 25%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2LorientDrawBrest
Home -31.8%4.5%93.7%
Home -26.3%11.7%81.9%
Home -1β‰ˆ18.1%20.9%61.0%
Home +168.6%18.2%13.2%
Home +286.8%9.0%4.1%
Home +395.9%3.1%1.0%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Lorient Β· Home
  • 1:010.2%
  • 2:07.4%
  • 2:18.4%
  • 3:03.2%
  • 3:13.6%
  • 3:22.1%
  • 4:01.0%
  • 4:11.2%
  • 4:20.7%
  • 5:00.3%
  • 5:10.3%
  • 5:20.2%
  • Other home win0.6%
Draw
  • 0:09.9%
  • 1:114.1%
  • 2:24.8%
  • 3:30.8%
  • Other draw0.1%
Brest Β· Away
  • 0:18.8%
  • 0:25.7%
  • 1:27.4%
  • 0:32.2%
  • 1:32.8%
  • 2:31.8%
  • 0:40.6%
  • 1:40.8%
  • 2:40.5%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.2%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.4%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
9.9%
1
19.0%
2
27.1%
3
21.1%
4
12.8%
5
6.3%
6
2.5%
7+
1.2%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over71.1%43.9%22.9%10.0%
Under28.9%56.1%77.1%90.0%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
28.3%
Over, even
15.7%
Under, odd
19.0%
Under, even
37.0%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
50.5%
Both teams to score: No
49.5%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Lorient
32.0%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Brest
27.4%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Lorient27.4%35.5%23.0%14.2%
Brest32.0%36.5%20.8%10.8%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
21.9%
H/D
5.3%
H/A
1.8%
Draw
D/H
15.0%
D/D
18.9%
D/A
12.5%
Away
A/H
2.1%
A/D
5.3%
A/A
17.2%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Lorient

Nicknamed Les Merlus, this Brittany club turned 100 in 2026 and plays in Ligue 1 after winning promotion from Ligue 2 in 2025.

City
Lorient, France
Stadium
Stade du Moustoir – Yves Allainmat
Founded
1926
Head coach
Alexandre Dujeux

Brest

A Breton club nicknamed Les Pirates, Brest finished third in Ligue 1 in 2023–24 and played in the Champions League the next season, then finished 9th in 2024–25.

City
Brest, France
Stadium
Stade Francis-Le BlΓ©
Founded
1950
Head coach
Julien Lachuer

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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