Bundesliga · Matchday 8

Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Union Berlin
DDWLL
1 - 1
HT 1-0
1. FC Köln
DLWLD

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Union Berlin win 36%, draw 27%, 1. FC Köln win 37%; the final score was 1:1.

Full time: Union Berlin 1-1 1. FC Köln. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "1. FC Köln" — missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultDraw27.0%#3 of 3
Correct score1:112.7%most likely
Total goals2 goals24.3%most likely
Over/under 2.5Under 2.544.7%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeH/D5.7%#6 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Miss
Union Berlin / 1. FC Köln
73%
Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Hit
Union Berlin
63%
Correct scoreHit
1:1 / 1:2
21%
Total goalsHit
2 / 3 goals
47%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
A/A
21%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Over
55%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: Union Berlin 36%, draw 27%, 1. FC Köln 37% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
  • 2.90 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 55%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (21%).
  • Last five: Union Berlin DDWLL (1 wins), 1. FC Köln DLWLD (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Union Berlin 36%Draw 27%1. FC Köln 37%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Union Berlin
1.43
Expected goals · 1. FC Köln
1.46
Most likely score
1:1 (13%)
Half-time result
29% / 42% / 30%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Union BerlinDraw1. FC Köln
Home -32.0%4.5%93.6%
Home -26.4%10.8%82.8%
Home -117.2%18.6%64.2%
Home +1≈62.8%19.0%18.2%
Home +281.8%11.3%6.9%
Home +393.1%4.8%2.1%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Union Berlin · Home
  • 1:06.8%
  • 2:05.7%
  • 2:18.3%
  • 3:02.7%
  • 3:14.0%
  • 3:22.9%
  • 4:01.0%
  • 4:11.4%
  • 4:21.0%
  • 5:00.3%
  • 5:10.4%
  • 5:20.3%
  • Other home win1.1%
Draw
  • 0:06.6%
  • 1:112.7%
  • 2:26.1%
  • 3:31.4%
  • Other draw0.2%
1. FC Köln · Away
  • 0:17.0%
  • 0:25.9%
  • 1:28.5%
  • 0:32.9%
  • 1:34.1%
  • 2:33.0%
  • 0:41.1%
  • 1:41.5%
  • 2:41.1%
  • 0:50.3%
  • 1:50.4%
  • 2:50.3%
  • Other away win1.1%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
6.6%
1
13.8%
2
24.3%
3
22.4%
4
16.2%
5
9.4%
6
4.5%
7+
2.8%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over79.6%55.3%32.9%16.7%
Under20.4%44.7%67.1%83.3%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
33.8%
Over, even
21.5%
Under, odd
13.8%
Under, even
30.9%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
59.6%
Both teams to score: No
40.4%
Clean-sheet probability · Union Berlin
23.1%
Clean-sheet probability · 1. FC Köln
23.9%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Union Berlin23.9%34.2%24.5%17.4%
1. FC Köln23.1%33.9%24.8%18.2%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
20.6%
H/D
5.7%
H/A
2.5%
Draw
D/H
12.8%
D/D
15.5%
D/A
13.3%
Away
A/H
2.4%
A/D
5.7%
A/A
21.5%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Union Berlin

A working-class club from Berlin's Köpenick district, known for its passionate fans and atmospheric stadium, and an established Bundesliga side that has played in Europe in recent years.

City
Berlin, Germany
Stadium
Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Founded
1966
Head coach
Mauro Lustrinelli

1. FC Köln

Cologne-based club nicknamed the Billy Goats (Die Geißböcke), three-time German champions and Bundesliga founding members, who returned to the top flight after winning the 2024–25 2. Bundesliga and finished 14th in 2025–26.

City
Cologne, Germany
Stadium
RheinEnergieStadion
Founded
1948
Head coach
René Wagner

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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