Eredivisie Β· Matchday 11
PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): PEC Zwolle win 40%, draw 26%, ADO Den Haag win 34%; the final score was 1:0.
Full time: PEC Zwolle 1-0 ADO Den Haag. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "PEC Zwolle" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | PEC Zwolle | 40.1% | most likely |
| Correct score | 1:0 | 6.2% | #5 of 31 |
| Total goals | 1 goals | 11.8% | #4 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 39.6% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 23.7% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- PEC Zwolle / ADO Den Haag
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- ADO Den Haag
- 60%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 20%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 45%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 24%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 60%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: PEC Zwolle 40%, draw 26%, ADO Den Haag 34% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- Goals look likely: 3.12 expected in total, 60% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (24%).
- Last five: PEC Zwolle DWLLL (1 wins), ADO Den Haag LWDDL (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· PEC Zwolle
- 1.63
- Expected goals Β· ADO Den Haag
- 1.49
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 32% / 40% / 28%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | PEC Zwolle | Draw | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.9% | 5.7% | 91.4% |
| Home -2 | 8.6% | 12.3% | 79.2% |
| Home -1β | 20.8% | 19.3% | 59.9% |
| Home +1 | 65.8% | 17.6% | 16.6% |
| Home +2 | 83.4% | 10.3% | 6.3% |
| Home +3 | 93.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:06.2%
- 2:05.8%
- 2:18.7%
- 3:03.2%
- 3:14.7%
- 3:23.5%
- 4:01.3%
- 4:11.9%
- 4:21.4%
- 5:00.4%
- 5:10.6%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win1.7%
- 0:05.4%
- 1:111.7%
- 2:26.5%
- 3:31.8%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:15.6%
- 0:24.9%
- 1:28.0%
- 0:32.4%
- 1:34.0%
- 2:33.2%
- 0:40.9%
- 1:41.5%
- 2:41.2%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.4%
- 2:50.4%
- Other away win1.4%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 82.8% | 60.4% | 38.1% | 20.6% |
| Under | 17.2% | 39.6% | 61.9% | 79.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 36.2%
- Over, even
- 24.2%
- Under, odd
- 11.8%
- Under, even
- 27.8%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 63.3%
- Both teams to score: No
- 36.7%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· PEC Zwolle
- 22.4%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· ADO Den Haag
- 19.6%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 19.6% | 31.9% | 26.0% | 22.5% |
| ADO Den Haag | 22.4% | 33.5% | 25.1% | 19.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 23.7% | H/D 5.8% | H/A 2.5% |
| Draw | D/H 13.6% | D/D 14.0% | D/A 11.9% |
| Away | A/H 2.8% | A/D 5.8% | A/A 19.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
PEC Zwolle
Nicknamed the Blauwvingers, PEC Zwolle is an Eredivisie club from Overijssel that returned to the top flight in 2023 and typically plays in the middle to lower part of the table.
- City
- Zwolle, Netherlands
- Stadium
- MACΒ³PARK Stadion
- Founded
- 1910
- Head coach
- Dennis van der Ree
ADO Den Haag
The Hague's traditional club, which won the 2025β26 Eerste Divisie under Robin Peter's high-intensity approach to earn promotion back to the Eredivisie.
- City
- The Hague, Netherlands
- Stadium
- WerkTalent Stadion
- Founded
- 1905
- Head coach
- Robin Peter
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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