Ligue 1 · Matchday 9
Paris FC vs Monaco prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Paris FC win 39%, draw 27%, Monaco win 34%; the final score was 3:1.
Full time: Paris FC 3-1 Monaco. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Paris FC" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Paris FC | 38.6% | most likely |
| Correct score | 3:1 | 4.2% | #10 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 15.6% | #3 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 22.1% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Paris FC / Monaco
- 73%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
- Monaco
- 61%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 22%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 53%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Paris FC 39%, draw 27%, Monaco 34% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.81 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 53%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (22%).
- Last five: Paris FC LWLWD (2 wins), Monaco DLDWD (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Paris FC
- 1.45
- Expected goals · Monaco
- 1.36
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 30% / 43% / 27%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Paris FC | Draw | Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.2% | 4.9% | 92.9% |
| Home -2 | 7.1% | 11.7% | 81.2% |
| Home -1≈ | 18.8% | 19.8% | 61.4% |
| Home +1 | 65.7% | 18.4% | 15.9% |
| Home +2 | 84.1% | 10.2% | 5.7% |
| Home +3 | 94.3% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.8%
- 2:06.4%
- 2:18.6%
- 3:03.1%
- 3:14.2%
- 3:22.8%
- 4:01.1%
- 4:11.5%
- 4:21.0%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.4%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.0%
- 0:07.0%
- 1:112.8%
- 2:25.8%
- 3:31.3%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:17.2%
- 0:25.5%
- 1:28.1%
- 0:32.5%
- 1:33.6%
- 2:32.6%
- 0:40.8%
- 1:41.2%
- 2:40.9%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 78.0% | 53.2% | 31.0% | 15.3% |
| Under | 22.0% | 46.8% | 69.0% | 84.7% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.9%
- Over, even
- 20.3%
- Under, odd
- 15.0%
- Under, even
- 31.8%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 57.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 42.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · Paris FC
- 25.8%
- Clean-sheet probability · Monaco
- 23.4%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | 23.4% | 34.0% | 24.7% | 17.9% |
| Monaco | 25.8% | 35.0% | 23.7% | 15.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 22.1% | H/D 5.6% | H/A 2.3% |
| Draw | D/H 14.1% | D/D 15.9% | D/A 12.7% |
| Away | A/H 2.5% | A/D 5.6% | A/A 19.3% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Paris FC
A Paris club founded in 1969 and promoted to Ligue 1 in 2025 for its first top-flight season since 1979, it finished 11th in 2025–26 and has played at Stade Jean-Bouin since 2025.
- City
- Paris, France
- Stadium
- Stade Jean-Bouin
- Founded
- 1969
- Head coach
- Liam Rosenior
Monaco
A Monaco-based club that plays in the French league system and has won multiple Ligue 1 titles, most recently in 2016–17. It finished 7th in Ligue 1 in 2025–26 and reached the Champions League knockout phase play-offs.
- City
- Monaco, Monaco
- Stadium
- Stade Louis II
- Founded
- 1924
- Head coach
- Sébastien Pocognoli
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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