MLS Β· Matchday 33
Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Nashville SC win 67%, draw 18%, New York Red Bulls win 16%; the final score was 3:2.
Full time: Nashville SC 3-2 New York Red Bulls. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Nashville SC" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Nashville SC | 66.5% | most likely |
| Correct score | 3:2 | 5.4% | #9 of 31 |
| Total goals | 5 goals | 16.4% | #3 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.4% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/H | 4.6% | #8 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Nashville SC
- 67%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- Nashville SC
- 48%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 2:1 / 3:1
- 16%
- Total goalsMiss
- 3 / 4 goals
- 38%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 45%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 79%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Nashville SC (67%); expected goals Nashville SC 2.84 β 1.39 New York Red Bulls.
- Goals look likely: 4.23 expected in total, 79% for over 2.5 and 72% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:1 (8%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (45%).
- Last five: Nashville SC DWDWW (3 wins), New York Red Bulls LWLLW (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Nashville SC
- 2.84
- Expected goals Β· New York Red Bulls
- 1.39
- Most likely score
- 2:1 (8%)
- Half-time result
- 52% / 30% / 18%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Nashville SC | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 15.3% | 13.7% | 71.0% |
| Home -2 | 29.0% | 18.6% | 52.4% |
| Home -1β | 47.6% | 18.9% | 33.5% |
| Home +1 | 84.4% | 8.8% | 6.7% |
| Home +2 | 93.3% | 4.5% | 2.3% |
| Home +3 | 97.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:03.2%
- 2:05.9%
- 2:18.2%
- 3:05.5%
- 3:17.7%
- 3:25.4%
- 4:03.9%
- 4:15.5%
- 4:23.8%
- 5:02.2%
- 5:13.1%
- 5:22.2%
- Other home win9.9%
- 0:02.4%
- 1:16.7%
- 2:25.7%
- 3:32.5%
- Other draw0.7%
- 0:11.1%
- 0:21.4%
- 1:24.0%
- 0:30.7%
- 1:31.9%
- 2:32.6%
- 0:40.2%
- 1:40.6%
- 2:40.9%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win1.6%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 93.3% | 79.4% | 61.0% | 41.6% |
| Under | 6.7% | 20.6% | 39.0% | 58.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 43.8%
- Over, even
- 35.5%
- Under, odd
- 4.3%
- Under, even
- 16.3%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 71.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 28.3%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Nashville SC
- 24.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· New York Red Bulls
- 5.9%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 5.9% | 16.6% | 23.6% | 53.9% |
| New York Red Bulls | 24.8% | 34.6% | 24.1% | 16.5% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 45.1% | H/D 4.8% | H/A 1.6% |
| Draw | D/H 16.7% | D/D 8.4% | D/A 5.2% |
| Away | A/H 4.6% | A/D 4.8% | A/A 8.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Nashville SC
Nashville SC, nicknamed the Boys in Gold, joined MLS in 2020 and topped the Eastern Conference and the overall table in the 2026 regular season under B. J. Callaghan.
- City
- Nashville, Tennessee, United States
- Stadium
- Geodis Park
- Founded
- 2016
- Head coach
- B. J. Callaghan
New York Red Bulls
An MLS club in the New York metropolitan area, known for a high-pressing style and an MLS Cup final run in 2024, which missed the playoffs in 2025 and again in 2026 under first-year head coach Michael Bradley.
- City
- Harrison, New Jersey, United States
- Stadium
- Sports Illustrated Stadium
- Founded
- 1995
- Head coach
- Michael Bradley
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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