MLS Β· Matchday 33

Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Sporting Kansas City
LLLLD
1 - 1
HT 1-1
FC Dallas
LWDWL

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Sporting Kansas City win 29%, draw 24%, FC Dallas win 46%; the final score was 1:1.

Full time: Sporting Kansas City 1-1 FC Dallas. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "FC Dallas" β€” missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultDraw24.2%#3 of 3
Correct score1:110.1%most likely
Total goals2 goals19.1%#3 of 8
Over/under 2.5Under 2.530.2%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeD/D12.1%#4 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Miss
Sporting Kansas City / FC Dallas
76%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
Sporting Kansas City
54%
Correct scoreHit
1:1 / 1:2
19%
Total goalsMiss
3 / 4 goals
40%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
A/A
29%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Over
70%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour FC Dallas (46%); expected goals Sporting Kansas City 1.59 – 2.01 FC Dallas.
  • Goals look likely: 3.60 expected in total, 70% for over 2.5 and 70% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (10%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (29%).
  • Last five: Sporting Kansas City LLLLD (0 wins), FC Dallas LWDWL (2 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Sporting Kansas City 29%Draw 24%FC Dallas 46%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· Sporting Kansas City
1.59
Expected goals Β· FC Dallas
2.01
Most likely score
1:1 (10%)
Half-time result
27% / 36% / 37%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Sporting Kansas CityDrawFC Dallas
Home -31.9%3.9%94.3%
Home -25.7%9.0%85.3%
Home -114.7%14.8%70.5%
Home +1β‰ˆ53.7%19.0%27.3%
Home +272.7%14.3%13.0%
Home +387.0%7.8%5.2%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Sporting Kansas City Β· Home
  • 1:03.0%
  • 2:03.5%
  • 2:16.9%
  • 3:01.8%
  • 3:13.7%
  • 3:23.7%
  • 4:00.7%
  • 4:11.5%
  • 4:21.5%
  • 5:00.2%
  • 5:10.5%
  • 5:20.5%
  • Other home win2.0%
Draw
  • 0:04.1%
  • 1:110.1%
  • 2:27.0%
  • 3:32.5%
  • Other draw0.6%
FC Dallas Β· Away
  • 0:14.1%
  • 0:25.5%
  • 1:28.8%
  • 0:33.7%
  • 1:35.9%
  • 2:34.7%
  • 0:41.9%
  • 1:43.0%
  • 2:42.3%
  • 0:50.7%
  • 1:51.2%
  • 2:50.9%
  • Other away win3.6%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
4.1%
1
7.1%
2
19.1%
3
21.2%
4
19.1%
5
13.8%
6
8.3%
7+
7.3%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over88.8%69.8%48.5%29.4%
Under11.2%30.2%51.5%70.6%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
40.1%
Over, even
29.6%
Under, odd
7.1%
Under, even
23.2%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
70.3%
Both teams to score: No
29.7%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Sporting Kansas City
13.4%
Clean-sheet probability Β· FC Dallas
20.4%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Sporting Kansas City20.4%32.4%25.8%21.5%
FC Dallas13.4%26.9%27.1%32.6%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
17.2%
H/D
6.1%
H/A
3.5%
Draw
D/H
9.7%
D/D
12.1%
D/A
14.0%
Away
A/H
2.5%
A/D
6.1%
A/A
28.7%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Sporting Kansas City

A founding MLS club from the Kansas City area, long known for a pressing, organised identity, which finished 2026 near the bottom of the table and out of the playoffs under first-year coach RaphaΓ«l Wicky.

City
Kansas City, United States
Stadium
Sporting Park
Founded
1995
Head coach
RaphaΓ«l Wicky

FC Dallas

An MLS club founded as the Dallas Burn that is known for its homegrown academy approach, and it qualified for the 2026 MLS playoffs under Eric Quill.

City
Frisco, Texas, United States
Stadium
Toyota Stadium
Founded
1995
Head coach
Eric Quill

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

Market & China Sports Lottery guide β†’ Β· League page: MLS β†’