MLS · Matchday 33
New York City FC vs CF Montréal prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): New York City FC win 66%, draw 20%, CF Montréal win 15%; the final score was 1:1.
Full time: New York City FC 1-1 CF Montréal. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "New York City FC" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Draw | 19.9% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:1 | 8.6% | #2 of 31 |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 18.5% | #3 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 29.3% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | H/D | 4.8% | #6 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- New York City FC
- 66%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
- New York City FC
- 45%
- Correct scoreHit
- 2:1 / 1:1
- 18%
- Total goalsMiss
- 3 / 4 goals
- 40%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 44%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 71%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour New York City FC (66%); expected goals New York City FC 2.50 – 1.15 CF Montréal.
- Goals look likely: 3.65 expected in total, 71% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:1 (9%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (44%).
- Last five: New York City FC WDDLL (1 wins), CF Montréal LLDLL (0 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · New York City FC
- 2.50
- Expected goals · CF Montréal
- 1.15
- Most likely score
- 2:1 (9%)
- Half-time result
- 50% / 33% / 17%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | New York City FC | Draw | CF Montréal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 12.6% | 13.3% | 74.1% |
| Home -2 | 25.9% | 19.3% | 54.8% |
| Home -1≈ | 45.2% | 20.4% | 34.4% |
| Home +1 | 85.5% | 8.7% | 5.8% |
| Home +2 | 94.2% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| Home +3 | 98.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:05.3%
- 2:08.1%
- 2:19.3%
- 3:06.8%
- 3:17.8%
- 3:24.5%
- 4:04.2%
- 4:14.9%
- 4:22.8%
- 5:02.1%
- 5:12.4%
- 5:21.4%
- Other home win6.0%
- 0:03.8%
- 1:18.6%
- 2:25.4%
- 3:31.7%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:11.8%
- 0:21.7%
- 1:24.3%
- 0:30.7%
- 1:31.6%
- 2:32.1%
- 0:40.2%
- 1:40.5%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 89.1% | 70.7% | 49.6% | 30.4% |
| Under | 10.9% | 29.3% | 50.4% | 69.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 40.5%
- Over, even
- 30.2%
- Under, odd
- 7.1%
- Under, even
- 22.2%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 64.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 36.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · New York City FC
- 31.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · CF Montréal
- 8.2%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC | 8.2% | 20.5% | 25.6% | 45.7% |
| CF Montréal | 31.6% | 36.4% | 21.0% | 11.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 43.7% | H/D 4.8% | H/A 1.3% |
| Draw | D/H 17.9% | D/D 10.3% | D/A 5.2% |
| Away | A/H 4.0% | A/D 4.8% | A/A 8.0% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
New York City FC
An MLS club in the Eastern Conference that reached the 2025 conference final under Pascal Jansen.
- City
- New York, United States
- Stadium
- Yankee Stadium
- Founded
- 2013
- Head coach
- Pascal Jansen
CF Montréal
Quebec's MLS club, formerly the Montreal Impact and owned by the Saputo family, which finished 13th in the Eastern Conference in 2026 and missed the playoffs.
- City
- Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Stadium
- Saputo Stadium
- Founded
- 1992
- Head coach
- Philippe Eullaffroy (interim)
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.