Premier League Β· Matchday 9

Coventry City vs Sunderland prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Coventry City
LLWWL
3 - 1
HT 2-0
Sunderland
DLLLL

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Coventry City win 32%, draw 28%, Sunderland win 40%; the final score was 3:1.

Full time: Coventry City 3-1 Sunderland. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Sunderland" β€” missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultCoventry City31.9%#2 of 3
Correct score3:13.2%#12 of 31
Total goals4 goals14.9%#4 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.550.7%most likely
Half-time/full-timeH/H18.6%#2 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Coventry City / Sunderland
72%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
Coventry City
60%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 1:2
22%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
48%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
A/A
24%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
51%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: Coventry City 32%, draw 28%, Sunderland 40% β€” no clear lean from the probabilities.
  • 2.70 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 51%).
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (24%).
  • Last five: Coventry City LLWWL (2 wins), Sunderland DLLLL (0 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Coventry City 32%Draw 28%Sunderland 40%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· Coventry City
1.26
Expected goals Β· Sunderland
1.44
Most likely score
1:1 (13%)
Half-time result
27% / 42% / 32%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Coventry CityDrawSunderland
Home -31.3%3.5%95.2%
Home -24.8%9.4%85.8%
Home -114.2%17.7%68.1%
Home +1β‰ˆ59.9%20.4%19.7%
Home +280.3%12.2%7.5%
Home +392.5%5.2%2.3%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Coventry City Β· Home
  • 1:07.3%
  • 2:05.3%
  • 2:17.7%
  • 3:02.2%
  • 3:13.2%
  • 3:22.3%
  • 4:00.7%
  • 4:11.0%
  • 4:20.7%
  • 5:00.2%
  • 5:10.3%
  • 5:20.2%
  • Other home win0.7%
Draw
  • 0:07.9%
  • 1:113.3%
  • 2:25.5%
  • 3:31.1%
  • Other draw0.1%
Sunderland Β· Away
  • 0:18.5%
  • 0:27.0%
  • 1:28.8%
  • 0:33.3%
  • 1:34.2%
  • 2:32.7%
  • 0:41.2%
  • 1:41.5%
  • 2:41.0%
  • 0:50.3%
  • 1:50.4%
  • 2:50.3%
  • Other away win0.9%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
7.9%
1
15.8%
2
25.6%
3
22.0%
4
14.9%
5
8.0%
6
3.6%
7+
2.1%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over76.3%50.7%28.6%13.7%
Under23.7%49.3%71.4%86.3%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
31.6%
Over, even
19.0%
Under, odd
15.8%
Under, even
33.5%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
55.8%
Both teams to score: No
44.2%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Coventry City
23.7%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Sunderland
28.3%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Coventry City28.3%35.7%22.5%13.4%
Sunderland23.7%34.1%24.6%17.6%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
18.6%
H/D
5.6%
H/A
2.3%
Draw
D/H
11.4%
D/D
16.7%
D/A
13.8%
Away
A/H
1.9%
A/D
5.6%
A/A
24.0%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Coventry City

Nicknamed the Sky Blues, Coventry won the 2025–26 Championship under Frank Lampard, earning a return to the Premier League for the first time since 2001.

City
Coventry, England
Stadium
Coventry Building Society Arena
Founded
1883
Head coach
Frank Lampard

Sunderland

Nicknamed the Black Cats, Sunderland are a historic north-east England club who returned to the Premier League in 2025–26 and finished 7th, earning a place in European competition.

City
Sunderland, England
Stadium
Stadium of Light
Founded
1879
Head coach
RΓ©gis Le Bris

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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