Bundesliga Β· Matchday 8
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Bayern Munich win 71%, draw 16%, Borussia Dortmund win 13%; the final score was 2:2.
Full time: Bayern Munich 2-2 Borussia Dortmund. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Bayern Munich" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Draw | 16.2% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 2:2 | 5.1% | #9 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 19.5% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.1% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/D | 4.0% | #7 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Bayern Munich
- 71%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -2Hit
- Borussia Dortmund
- 49%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 2:1 / 3:1
- 17%
- Total goalsHit
- 3 / 4 goals
- 39%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 48%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 75%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Bayern Munich (71%); expected goals Bayern Munich 2.77 β 1.16 Borussia Dortmund.
- Goals look likely: 3.93 expected in total, 75% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:1 (9%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (48%).
- Last five: Bayern Munich WWDWW (4 wins), Borussia Dortmund WDDWW (3 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Bayern Munich
- 2.77
- Expected goals Β· Borussia Dortmund
- 1.16
- Most likely score
- 2:1 (9%)
- Half-time result
- 53% / 31% / 15%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Bayern Munich | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 16.3% | 14.7% | 69.0% |
| Home -2β | 31.0% | 19.7% | 49.3% |
| Home -1 | 50.7% | 20.0% | 29.3% |
| Home +1 | 86.9% | 8.2% | 4.9% |
| Home +2 | 95.1% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Home +3 | 98.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
Model's balanced line: Home -2
Correct score
- 1:05.1%
- 2:07.6%
- 2:18.7%
- 3:07.0%
- 3:18.1%
- 3:24.7%
- 4:04.8%
- 4:15.6%
- 4:23.2%
- 5:02.7%
- 5:13.1%
- 5:21.8%
- Other home win8.4%
- 0:02.3%
- 1:16.6%
- 2:25.1%
- 3:31.8%
- Other draw0.4%
- 0:12.0%
- 0:21.3%
- 1:23.7%
- 0:30.5%
- 1:31.4%
- 2:32.0%
- 0:40.1%
- 1:40.4%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 90.6% | 75.1% | 55.2% | 35.7% |
| Under | 9.4% | 24.9% | 44.8% | 64.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 42.2%
- Over, even
- 32.9%
- Under, odd
- 7.1%
- Under, even
- 17.8%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 64.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 35.4%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Bayern Munich
- 31.4%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Borussia Dortmund
- 6.3%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 6.3% | 17.4% | 24.1% | 52.3% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 31.4% | 36.4% | 21.1% | 11.2% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 47.9% | H/D 4.0% | H/A 1.3% |
| Draw | D/H 18.5% | D/D 8.1% | D/A 4.7% |
| Away | A/H 4.3% | A/D 4.0% | A/A 7.1% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Bayern Munich
Germany's most successful club and a perennial Bundesliga title contender, Bayern play a proactive, high-pressing attacking game under Vincent Kompany.
- City
- Munich, Germany
- Stadium
- Allianz Arena
- Founded
- 1900
- Head coach
- Vincent Kompany
Borussia Dortmund
One of Germany's most successful clubs, Dortmund are a regular Bundesliga top-four side known for fast attacking football, youth development and the Yellow Wall at Signal Iduna Park.
- City
- Dortmund, Germany
- Stadium
- Signal Iduna Park
- Founded
- 1909
- Head coach
- Niko KovaΔ
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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