Bundesliga Β· Matchday 8
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): FC Augsburg win 37%, draw 25%, SC Freiburg win 38%; the final score was 1:2.
Full time: FC Augsburg 1-2 SC Freiburg. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "SC Freiburg" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | SC Freiburg | 38.0% | most likely |
| Correct score | 1:2 | 8.4% | #2 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 22.2% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/A | 2.8% | #8 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- FC Augsburg / SC Freiburg
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Miss
- FC Augsburg
- 62%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 20%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 44%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 22%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 62%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: FC Augsburg 37%, draw 25%, SC Freiburg 38% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- Goals look likely: 3.22 expected in total, 62% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (22%).
- Last five: FC Augsburg DLDLD (0 wins), SC Freiburg LLWDW (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· FC Augsburg
- 1.59
- Expected goals Β· SC Freiburg
- 1.63
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 30% / 39% / 31%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | FC Augsburg | Draw | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.4% | 5.0% | 92.6% |
| Home -2 | 7.4% | 11.1% | 81.5% |
| Home -1 | 18.5% | 18.0% | 63.4% |
| Home +1β | 62.0% | 18.4% | 19.6% |
| Home +2 | 80.4% | 11.6% | 8.0% |
| Home +3 | 92.0% | 5.3% | 2.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:05.3%
- 2:05.1%
- 2:18.2%
- 3:02.7%
- 3:14.4%
- 3:23.6%
- 4:01.1%
- 4:11.7%
- 4:21.4%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.6%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win1.7%
- 0:05.0%
- 1:111.4%
- 2:26.7%
- 3:31.9%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:15.5%
- 0:25.3%
- 1:28.4%
- 0:32.9%
- 1:34.6%
- 2:33.6%
- 0:41.2%
- 1:41.9%
- 2:41.5%
- 0:50.4%
- 1:50.6%
- 2:50.5%
- Other away win1.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 84.2% | 62.4% | 40.2% | 22.3% |
| Under | 15.8% | 37.6% | 59.8% | 77.7% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 37.0%
- Over, even
- 25.4%
- Under, odd
- 10.8%
- Under, even
- 26.8%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 65.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 35.0%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· FC Augsburg
- 19.7%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· SC Freiburg
- 20.3%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 20.3% | 32.4% | 25.8% | 21.5% |
| SC Freiburg | 19.7% | 32.0% | 26.0% | 22.4% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 21.3% | H/D 5.9% | H/A 2.8% |
| Draw | D/H 12.5% | D/D 13.7% | D/A 12.9% |
| Away | A/H 2.7% | A/D 5.9% | A/A 22.3% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
FC Augsburg
A Bavarian Swabian club that has played in the Bundesliga since 2011, Augsburg finished 9th in 2025β26 and is coached by Manuel Baum, whose contract runs to 2028.
- City
- Augsburg, Germany
- Stadium
- WWK Arena
- Founded
- 1907
- Head coach
- Manuel Baum
SC Freiburg
A well-organised club from southwest Germany, known for its youth development and stable long-term planning, that finished 7th in the 2025β26 Bundesliga and reached the Europa League final.
- City
- Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
- Stadium
- Europa-Park Stadion
- Founded
- 1904
- Head coach
- Julian Schuster
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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